基于碳强度视角的中国减排成本分析
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摘要
中国的经济发展伴随着高能耗和高排放,研究减排成本以把握二氧化碳减排的社会和经济代价具有重要的意义。首先,本文计算了30个省市区1997-2013年的二氧化碳排放量和碳强度;用国有能源工业固定投资数据得到了各省份2003-2013年的总减排成本数据。其次,建立了总减排成本、碳强度及城市化水平之间的四种面板数据固定效应模型,并基于碳强度减排目标进行了情景分析;最后得到了边际减排成本曲线。研究发现,能源结构、经济规模及经济增速等因素决定了各省区二氧化碳排放、碳强度及减排成本差异较大;城市化水平对总减排成本的弹性系数在4.5左右,每提高一个百分点,总减排成本会增加440亿元左右。随着碳强度的下降,总减排成本先减少后增加;如果考虑城市化水平的提高,总减排成本不降反升。
Chinese economic development is associated with high energy consumption and high emissions. It is significant to study abatement costs to grasp the social and economic costs of carbon dioxide emissions. Firstly, this article calculated carbon dioxide emissions and carbon intensity of 30 provinces from 1997 to 2013, obtaining total abatement cost of provinces from 2003 to 2013 based on fixed investment of state-owned energy industries. Secondly, this article established four models of panel fixed effects concerning total abatement cost, carbon intensity and urbanization, and made scenario analysis based on carbon intensity reduction targets; finally, this article got the marginal abatement cost curve. According the research, factors such as energy structure, economic scale and economic growth determined that carbon dioxide emissions, carbon intensity and abatement costs of different provinces are quite different; the elasticity of urbanization to total abatement costs are around 4.5, and total abatement costs will increase by 44 billion yuan with urbanization ascending one percentage. With the decline of carbon intensity, the total abatement costs will first decrease and then increase, which will rise rather than fall concerning the rise of urbanization.
Chinese economic development is associated with high energy consumption and high emissions. It is significant to study abatement costs to grasp the social and economic costs of carbon dioxide emissions. Firstly, this article calculated carbon dioxide emissions and carbon intensity of 30 provinces from 1997 to 2013, obtaining total abatement cost of provinces from 2003 to 2013 based on fixed investment of state-owned energy industries. Secondly, this article established four models of panel fixed effects concerning total abatement cost, carbon intensity and urbanization, and made scenario analysis based on carbon intensity reduction targets; finally, this article got the marginal abatement cost curve. According the research, factors such as energy structure, economic scale and economic growth determined that carbon dioxide emissions, carbon intensity and abatement costs of different provinces are quite different; the elasticity of urbanization to total abatement costs are around 4.5, and total abatement costs will increase by 44 billion yuan with urbanization ascending one percentage. With the decline of carbon intensity, the total abatement costs will first decrease and then increase, which will rise rather than fall concerning the rise of urbanization.
引文
[1] 陈诗一.边际减排成本与中国环境税改革[J].中国社会科学,2011(3):85-100.
[2] 陈文颖,高鹏飞,何建坤. 未来二氧化碳减排对中国经济的影响[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2004(6):744 - 747.
[3] 傅京燕,代玉婷.碳交易市场链接的成本与福利分析[J].中国工业经济,2015(9):84-98.
[4] 韩一杰,刘秀丽. 中国二氧化碳减排的减排成本测算[J]. 管理评论, 2010(6): 100 - 105.
[5] 李陶,陈林菊,范英. 基于非线性规划的我国省区碳强度减排配额研究[J]. 管理评论,2010(6): 54- 60.
[6] 林伯强,蒋竺均.中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分[J].管理世界,2009(4):27-36.
[7] 林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8):66-78.
[8] 林伯强,姚昕,刘希颖.节能和碳排放约束下的中国能源结构战略调整[J].中国社会科学,2010(1):58-71.
[9] 夏炎,范英.基于减排成本曲线演化的碳减排策略研究[J].中国软科学,2012(3):12-22.
[10] 秦昌才,刘树林.碳排放影响因素研究的现状、比较与启示[J].经济与管理评论,2012(3):29-33.
[11] 宋德勇,卢忠宝. 中国碳排放影响因素分解及其周期性波动研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2009(3):18-24.
[12] 魏楚.中国城市CO_2边际减排成本及其影响因素[J].世界经济,2014(7):114-141.
[13] 吴力波, 钱浩祺,汤维祺.基于动态边际减排成本模拟的碳排放权交易与碳税选择机制[J]. 经济研究,2014(9):48-61.
[14] 朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,吴开亚.中国能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解及实证分析[J].资源科学,2009(12):2072-2079.
[15] Chen W. The Costs of Mitigating Carbon Emissions in China: Findings from China MARKAL - MACRO Modeling [J]. Energy Policy. 2005, 33: 885 - 896.
[16] Dasgupta, S., Huq, M.,Wheeler, D., Zhang, C., 2001.Water pollution abatement by Chinese industry: cost estimates and policy implications. Appl. Econ. 33, 547-557.
[17] De Cara, S., Jayet, P.-A., 2011. Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture, cost effectiveness, and the EU non-ETS burden sharing agreement. Ecol. Econ. 70, 1680-1690.
[18] DeCanio, S.J. Barriers within firms to energy-efficient investments[J]. Energy Policy,1993(21): 906-914.
[19] Dhakal S.Urban Energy Use and Carbon Emissions From Cities in China and Policy Implications[J]. Energy Policy 2009(37): 4208-4219.
[20] Ekins, P; Kesicki, F; Smith, A. Marginal abatement cost curves: a call for caution[J].Climate Policy,2012(12): 219-236.
[21] Ellerman, A.D., Decaux, A. Analysis Of Post-Kyoto CO_2 Emissions Trading Using Marginal Abatement Curves, MIT Working Paper,1998.
[22] Fare R.,et al. Derivation of shadow prices for undesirable outputs:a distance function approach[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993(2):374-380.
[23] Glaeser, E. and Kahn,M.E. The Greenness of Cities: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development. Journal of Urban Economics, 2008(3):404-418.
[24] Gruetter J. C., Carbon Emission Reduction Trading Model [EB/OL]. http: / /www. ghgmarket. Info, 2000.
[25] Hartman, R.S., Wheeler, D., Singh, M. The cost of air pollution abatement. Appl. Econ. 1997(29): 759-774.
[2] 陈文颖,高鹏飞,何建坤. 未来二氧化碳减排对中国经济的影响[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2004(6):744 - 747.
[3] 傅京燕,代玉婷.碳交易市场链接的成本与福利分析[J].中国工业经济,2015(9):84-98.
[4] 韩一杰,刘秀丽. 中国二氧化碳减排的减排成本测算[J]. 管理评论, 2010(6): 100 - 105.
[5] 李陶,陈林菊,范英. 基于非线性规划的我国省区碳强度减排配额研究[J]. 管理评论,2010(6): 54- 60.
[6] 林伯强,蒋竺均.中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分[J].管理世界,2009(4):27-36.
[7] 林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8):66-78.
[8] 林伯强,姚昕,刘希颖.节能和碳排放约束下的中国能源结构战略调整[J].中国社会科学,2010(1):58-71.
[9] 夏炎,范英.基于减排成本曲线演化的碳减排策略研究[J].中国软科学,2012(3):12-22.
[10] 秦昌才,刘树林.碳排放影响因素研究的现状、比较与启示[J].经济与管理评论,2012(3):29-33.
[11] 宋德勇,卢忠宝. 中国碳排放影响因素分解及其周期性波动研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2009(3):18-24.
[12] 魏楚.中国城市CO_2边际减排成本及其影响因素[J].世界经济,2014(7):114-141.
[13] 吴力波, 钱浩祺,汤维祺.基于动态边际减排成本模拟的碳排放权交易与碳税选择机制[J]. 经济研究,2014(9):48-61.
[14] 朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,吴开亚.中国能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解及实证分析[J].资源科学,2009(12):2072-2079.
[15] Chen W. The Costs of Mitigating Carbon Emissions in China: Findings from China MARKAL - MACRO Modeling [J]. Energy Policy. 2005, 33: 885 - 896.
[16] Dasgupta, S., Huq, M.,Wheeler, D., Zhang, C., 2001.Water pollution abatement by Chinese industry: cost estimates and policy implications. Appl. Econ. 33, 547-557.
[17] De Cara, S., Jayet, P.-A., 2011. Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture, cost effectiveness, and the EU non-ETS burden sharing agreement. Ecol. Econ. 70, 1680-1690.
[18] DeCanio, S.J. Barriers within firms to energy-efficient investments[J]. Energy Policy,1993(21): 906-914.
[19] Dhakal S.Urban Energy Use and Carbon Emissions From Cities in China and Policy Implications[J]. Energy Policy 2009(37): 4208-4219.
[20] Ekins, P; Kesicki, F; Smith, A. Marginal abatement cost curves: a call for caution[J].Climate Policy,2012(12): 219-236.
[21] Ellerman, A.D., Decaux, A. Analysis Of Post-Kyoto CO_2 Emissions Trading Using Marginal Abatement Curves, MIT Working Paper,1998.
[22] Fare R.,et al. Derivation of shadow prices for undesirable outputs:a distance function approach[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993(2):374-380.
[23] Glaeser, E. and Kahn,M.E. The Greenness of Cities: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development. Journal of Urban Economics, 2008(3):404-418.
[24] Gruetter J. C., Carbon Emission Reduction Trading Model [EB/OL]. http: / /www. ghgmarket. Info, 2000.
[25] Hartman, R.S., Wheeler, D., Singh, M. The cost of air pollution abatement. Appl. Econ. 1997(29): 759-774.