黑龙江省低温冷害和风雹近36年的变化特征
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摘要
为促进农业灾害预防和减灾工作的开展,利用Mann-kendall检验和Morlet小波法研究了黑龙江省1980-2015年农业低温冷害和风雹受灾率的时间变化特征。结果表明:在1980-2015年,低温冷害受灾率呈下降趋势,风雹灾害受灾率呈上升趋势,但二者均未通过0.1水平上的显著性检验。通过Morlet小波分析可知,低温冷害和风雹受灾率的变化主周期分别为7和19a,通过变化周期小波系数拟合可知,二者受灾率在2017-2019年处于正相位。
In order to promote the prevention and mitigation of agricultural disasters,we studied temporal change characteristics of agrometeorological chilling injury disasters and hail &tornadoe disasters which affected agricultural productivity in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2015 by Mann-kendall and Morlet wavelet methods.The results showed that the disaster rates of chilling injuries were in the trend of subsiding and the disaster rates of hails &tornadoes increased from 1980 to 2015 by Mann-Kendall analysis.The change trends of the two agrometeorological disaster rates did not pass the significant test at 0.1 level.The results of Morlet wavelet variance of agrometeorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province during 1980-2015 analysis showed that disaster rate of chilling injuries and hails &tornadoes changed periodically at 7 aand 19 atime scale,respectively.The disaster rate of chilling injuries and hails &tornadoes over the period 2017-2019 would remain in positive phase.
In order to promote the prevention and mitigation of agricultural disasters,we studied temporal change characteristics of agrometeorological chilling injury disasters and hail &tornadoe disasters which affected agricultural productivity in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2015 by Mann-kendall and Morlet wavelet methods.The results showed that the disaster rates of chilling injuries were in the trend of subsiding and the disaster rates of hails &tornadoes increased from 1980 to 2015 by Mann-Kendall analysis.The change trends of the two agrometeorological disaster rates did not pass the significant test at 0.1 level.The results of Morlet wavelet variance of agrometeorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province during 1980-2015 analysis showed that disaster rate of chilling injuries and hails &tornadoes changed periodically at 7 aand 19 atime scale,respectively.The disaster rate of chilling injuries and hails &tornadoes over the period 2017-2019 would remain in positive phase.
引文
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[4]王萍,李帅,闫平,等.黑龙江省近年低温冷害特征再探[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(1):143-146.
[5]唐立兵,张平.自然灾害对黑龙江省经济社会发展影响的实证分析[J].大庆师范学院学报,2013,33(3):108-111.
[6]郭丽娜,张立新.黑龙江省农业气象灾害的动态特征及其对粮食生产的影响[J].潍坊工程职业学院学报,2014,27(4):72-77.
[7]周长生.黑龙江省近30年农业气象灾害对粮食生产影响研究[D].哈尔滨:黑龙江大学,2010.
[8]祖世亨,闫平.黑龙江省2002年夏季低温冷害及对粮食产量的影响[J].黑龙江气象,2002(4):26-27.
[9]王秋京,吕佳佳,李秀芬,等.黑龙江省农业气象灾害分布特征及其对农业生产的影响[J].黑龙江水利科技,2016(4):57-61.
[10]郑凯,王恒宇.近55年来黑龙江省冰雹气候特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2016,44(6):216-219.
[11]朱红蕊,刘赫男,孙爽,等.黑龙江省2011年主要气象灾害及影响[J].黑龙江农业科学,2012(5):37-39.
[12]中华人民共和国农业农村部种植业管理司.历史自然灾害数据库[D/OL][2019-01-02].http://zzys.agri.gov.cn/zaiqing.aspx.
[13]黑龙江省统计局.黑龙江统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1994-2014.
[14]蒋红花.山东省干旱灾害的变化特征及相关分析[J].灾害学,2000,15(3):51-55.
[15]张秀梅,杨萌,李春景.基于M-K、Morlet小波分析图们江下游降水量[J].延边大学农学学报,2014,36(4):285-290,296.
[16]琚彤军,石辉,胡庆.延安市近50年来降水特征及趋势变化的小波分析研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2008,26(4):230-235.