基于通径分析的海河流域冬小麦水足迹及影响因素
|
摘要
为量化冬小麦对水资源的消耗、合理利用区域水资源,基于彭曼公式、日尺度土壤水量平衡与通径分析法核算了1958—2016年海河流域冬小麦水足迹,分析了气象、农业生产投入因素对冬小麦水足迹的直接和间接影响。结果表明:流域冬小麦多年平均总水足迹为239. 6亿m3,平均水足迹为1 840 m3/t;海河流域冬小麦水足迹呈整体下降趋势,空间上京津地区最高,山西次之,山东、河南地区最低;农业机械总动力、化肥施用折纯量对冬小麦水足迹直接影响最大;气象因素主要通过农业生产投入因素对冬小麦水足迹产生影响。可通过提高农业生产力的方式降低冬小麦水足迹,京津等灰水足迹较高的地区应减少施肥。
In order to quantify the water consumption of winter wheat,and make use of the regional water resources rationally,water footprint of winter wheat in Haihe River Basin from 1958 to 2016 was accounted,and direct and indirect effects of meteorological and agricultural input on water footprint of winter wheat was analyzed based on Penman formula,daily scale soil water balance and path analysis. The results show that the years average total water footprint of winter wheat in the basin was 239. 6 billion m~3 and the average unit water footprint was 1 840 m~3/t. The water footprint shows a significantly decreasing trend. The water footprint was heterogeneous in space with the largest water footprint in Beijing and Tianjin,followed by Shanxi,Shandong and Henan. The total power of agricultural machinery and the amount of converted fertilizer application have the biggest direct effect on the water footprint of winter wheat. Meteorological factors influence water footprint of winter wheat mainly by input factors of agricultural production. Water footprint of winter wheat can be reduced by increasing agricultural productivity. Fertilization should be reduced in areas with high grey water footprint,such as Beijing and Tianjin.
In order to quantify the water consumption of winter wheat,and make use of the regional water resources rationally,water footprint of winter wheat in Haihe River Basin from 1958 to 2016 was accounted,and direct and indirect effects of meteorological and agricultural input on water footprint of winter wheat was analyzed based on Penman formula,daily scale soil water balance and path analysis. The results show that the years average total water footprint of winter wheat in the basin was 239. 6 billion m~3 and the average unit water footprint was 1 840 m~3/t. The water footprint shows a significantly decreasing trend. The water footprint was heterogeneous in space with the largest water footprint in Beijing and Tianjin,followed by Shanxi,Shandong and Henan. The total power of agricultural machinery and the amount of converted fertilizer application have the biggest direct effect on the water footprint of winter wheat. Meteorological factors influence water footprint of winter wheat mainly by input factors of agricultural production. Water footprint of winter wheat can be reduced by increasing agricultural productivity. Fertilization should be reduced in areas with high grey water footprint,such as Beijing and Tianjin.
引文
[1]HOEKSTRA A Y. Virtual water:an introduction[C]//HOEKSTRA A Y. Virtual Water Trade:Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade.Delft:IHE,2003:13-23.
[2] HOEKSTRA A Y. Water footprint assessment:evolvement of a new research field[J]. Water Resources Management,2017,31:3061-3081.
[3]孙世坤,刘文艳,刘静,等.河套灌区春小麦生产水足迹影响因子敏感性及贡献率分析[J].中国农业科学,2016,49(14):2751-2762.(SUN Shikun,LIU Wenyan,LIU Jing,et al. Sensitivity and contribution rate analysis of the influencing factors of spring wheat water footprint in Hetao Irrigation District[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2016,49(14):2751-2762.(in Chinese))
[4]黄晶,王学春,陈阜.水足迹研究进展及其对农业水资源利用的启示[J].水资源保护,2016,32(1):135-141.(HUANG Jing,WANG Xuechun,CHEN Fu. Research progress of water footprint and its implication for utilization of agricultural water[J]. Water Resources Protection,2016,32(1):135-141.(in Chinese))
[5]HOEKSTRA A Y. Human appropriation of natural capital:comparing ecological footprint and water footprint analysis[J]. Ecological Economics,2007,68,1963-1974.
[6]HOEKSTRA A Y,MEKONNEN M M. The water footprint of humanity[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(9):3232-3237.
[7]CHENOWETH J,HADJIKAKOU M, ZOUMIDES C.Quantifying the human impact on water resources:a critical review of the water footprint concept[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion,2013,10:9389-9433.
[8] MEKONNEN M M and HOEKSTRA A Y. A global and high-resolution assessment of the green,blue and grey water footprint of wheat[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2010,14:1259-1276.
[9]MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y. The green,blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2011,15:1577-1600.
[10]CAO C X,WU P T,WANG Y B,et al. Assessing blue and green water utilization in wheat production of China from the perspectives of water footprint and total water use[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Science,2014:18,3165-3178.
[11] ZHUO L,MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y.Benchmark levels for the consumptive water footprint of crop production for different environmental conditions:a case study for winter wheat in China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Science,2016,20:4547-4559.
[12]ZENG Z,LIU J,KOENEMAN P H,et al. Assessing water footprint at river basin level:a case study for the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Science,2012,16:2771-2781.
[13]ZHUO L,MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y,et al. Interand intra-annual variation of water footprint of crops and blue water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin(1961-2009)[J]. Advances in Water Resources,2016,87:29-41.
[14]HAN Y,JIA D,ZHUO L,et al. Assessing the water footprint of wheat and maize in Haihe River Basin,Northern China(1956-2015)[J]. Water,2018,10(7):867.
[15]王勤勤,刘俊国,赵丹丹.京津冀地区主要农作物生产水足迹研究[J].水资源保护,2018,34(2):22-27.(WANG Qinqin,LIU Junguo,ZHAO Dandan. Study on water footprint of main crop production in Jing-Jin-Ji Region[J]. Water Resources Protection,2018,34(2):22-27.(in Chinese))
[16]王丹阳,李景保,叶亚亚,等.基于不同受纳水体的湖南省农业灰水足迹分析[J].水资源保护,2016,32(4):49-54.(WANG Danyang,LI Jingbao,YE Yaya,et al.Analysis of agricultural grey water footprint in Hunan Province based on different receiving water bodies[J].Water Resources Protection,2016,32(4):49-54.(in Chinese))
[17] SUN S K,WU P T,WANG Y B,et al. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2013,444:498-507.
[18]ZHI Y,YANG Z F,YIN X A. Decomposition analysis of water footprint changes in a water limited river basin:a case study of the Haihe River Basin,China[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014,18:1549-1559.
[19]ZHAO C,CHEN B. Driving force analysis of the agricultural water footprint in China based on the LMDI method[J]. Environmental Science and Technology,2014,48(21):12723-12731.
[20]FENG L,CHEN B,HAYAT T,et al. The driving force of water footprint under the rapid urbanization process:a structural decomposition analysis for the Zhangye City in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,163:322-328.
[21]李泽红,董锁成,李宇,等.武威绿洲区农业水足迹变化及其驱动机制研究[J].自然资源学报,2018,28(3):410-416.(LI Zehong,DONG Suocheng,LI Yu,et al.Dynamic analysis on agricultural water footprint and its driving mechanism in Wuwei Oasis[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(3):410-416.(in Chinese))
[22]孙世坤,王玉宝,吴普特,等.小麦生产水足迹区域差异及归因分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(13):142-148.(SUN Shikun,WANG Yubao,WU Pute,et al. Spatial variability and attribution analysis of water footprint of wheat in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(13):142-148.(in Chinese))
[23]郭相平,高爽,吴梦洋,等.中国农作物水足迹时空分布与影响因素分析[J].农业机械学报,2018,49(5):295-302.(GUO Xiangping,GAO Shuang,WU Mengyang,et al. Analysis of temporal-spatial distribution and influencing factors of water footprint in crop production system of China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Machinery,2018,49(5):295-302.(in Chinese))
[24]HOEKSTRA A Y,CHAPAGAIN A K,ALDAYA M M,et al. The water footprint manual:setting the global standard[M]. London:Earthscan,2011:40-42.
[25] ALLEN R G,PEREIRA L S,RAES D,et al. Crop evapotranspiration:guidelines for computing crop water requirements[R]. Rome:Food and Agriculture Organization,1998.
[26]CHAPAGAIN A K,HOEKSTRA A Y,SAVENIJE H H G,et al. The water footprint of cotton consumption:an assessment of the impact of worldwide consumption of cotton products on the water resources in the cotton producing countries[J]. Ecological Economics,2006,60(1):186-203.
[27]蔡甲冰,刘钰,许迪等.基于通径分析原理的冬小麦缺水诊断指标敏感性分析[J].水利学报,2008,39(1):83-90.(CAI Jiabing,LIU Yu,XU Di,et al. Sensitivity analysis on water deficit indicator of winter wheat based on path analysis theory[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2008,39(1):83-90.(in Chinese))
[28]赵四申,王秀,高清海,等.不同机械施肥方式对玉米生长发育及产量效应的影响[J].农业工程学报,1999,15(3):123-127.(ZHAO Sishen,WANG Xiu,GAO Qinghai,et al. Effect of different mechanical fertilization patterns on maize growth and yield[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,1999,15(3):123-127.(in Chinese))
[2] HOEKSTRA A Y. Water footprint assessment:evolvement of a new research field[J]. Water Resources Management,2017,31:3061-3081.
[3]孙世坤,刘文艳,刘静,等.河套灌区春小麦生产水足迹影响因子敏感性及贡献率分析[J].中国农业科学,2016,49(14):2751-2762.(SUN Shikun,LIU Wenyan,LIU Jing,et al. Sensitivity and contribution rate analysis of the influencing factors of spring wheat water footprint in Hetao Irrigation District[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2016,49(14):2751-2762.(in Chinese))
[4]黄晶,王学春,陈阜.水足迹研究进展及其对农业水资源利用的启示[J].水资源保护,2016,32(1):135-141.(HUANG Jing,WANG Xuechun,CHEN Fu. Research progress of water footprint and its implication for utilization of agricultural water[J]. Water Resources Protection,2016,32(1):135-141.(in Chinese))
[5]HOEKSTRA A Y. Human appropriation of natural capital:comparing ecological footprint and water footprint analysis[J]. Ecological Economics,2007,68,1963-1974.
[6]HOEKSTRA A Y,MEKONNEN M M. The water footprint of humanity[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(9):3232-3237.
[7]CHENOWETH J,HADJIKAKOU M, ZOUMIDES C.Quantifying the human impact on water resources:a critical review of the water footprint concept[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion,2013,10:9389-9433.
[8] MEKONNEN M M and HOEKSTRA A Y. A global and high-resolution assessment of the green,blue and grey water footprint of wheat[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2010,14:1259-1276.
[9]MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y. The green,blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2011,15:1577-1600.
[10]CAO C X,WU P T,WANG Y B,et al. Assessing blue and green water utilization in wheat production of China from the perspectives of water footprint and total water use[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Science,2014:18,3165-3178.
[11] ZHUO L,MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y.Benchmark levels for the consumptive water footprint of crop production for different environmental conditions:a case study for winter wheat in China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Science,2016,20:4547-4559.
[12]ZENG Z,LIU J,KOENEMAN P H,et al. Assessing water footprint at river basin level:a case study for the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Science,2012,16:2771-2781.
[13]ZHUO L,MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y,et al. Interand intra-annual variation of water footprint of crops and blue water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin(1961-2009)[J]. Advances in Water Resources,2016,87:29-41.
[14]HAN Y,JIA D,ZHUO L,et al. Assessing the water footprint of wheat and maize in Haihe River Basin,Northern China(1956-2015)[J]. Water,2018,10(7):867.
[15]王勤勤,刘俊国,赵丹丹.京津冀地区主要农作物生产水足迹研究[J].水资源保护,2018,34(2):22-27.(WANG Qinqin,LIU Junguo,ZHAO Dandan. Study on water footprint of main crop production in Jing-Jin-Ji Region[J]. Water Resources Protection,2018,34(2):22-27.(in Chinese))
[16]王丹阳,李景保,叶亚亚,等.基于不同受纳水体的湖南省农业灰水足迹分析[J].水资源保护,2016,32(4):49-54.(WANG Danyang,LI Jingbao,YE Yaya,et al.Analysis of agricultural grey water footprint in Hunan Province based on different receiving water bodies[J].Water Resources Protection,2016,32(4):49-54.(in Chinese))
[17] SUN S K,WU P T,WANG Y B,et al. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2013,444:498-507.
[18]ZHI Y,YANG Z F,YIN X A. Decomposition analysis of water footprint changes in a water limited river basin:a case study of the Haihe River Basin,China[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014,18:1549-1559.
[19]ZHAO C,CHEN B. Driving force analysis of the agricultural water footprint in China based on the LMDI method[J]. Environmental Science and Technology,2014,48(21):12723-12731.
[20]FENG L,CHEN B,HAYAT T,et al. The driving force of water footprint under the rapid urbanization process:a structural decomposition analysis for the Zhangye City in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,163:322-328.
[21]李泽红,董锁成,李宇,等.武威绿洲区农业水足迹变化及其驱动机制研究[J].自然资源学报,2018,28(3):410-416.(LI Zehong,DONG Suocheng,LI Yu,et al.Dynamic analysis on agricultural water footprint and its driving mechanism in Wuwei Oasis[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(3):410-416.(in Chinese))
[22]孙世坤,王玉宝,吴普特,等.小麦生产水足迹区域差异及归因分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(13):142-148.(SUN Shikun,WANG Yubao,WU Pute,et al. Spatial variability and attribution analysis of water footprint of wheat in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(13):142-148.(in Chinese))
[23]郭相平,高爽,吴梦洋,等.中国农作物水足迹时空分布与影响因素分析[J].农业机械学报,2018,49(5):295-302.(GUO Xiangping,GAO Shuang,WU Mengyang,et al. Analysis of temporal-spatial distribution and influencing factors of water footprint in crop production system of China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Machinery,2018,49(5):295-302.(in Chinese))
[24]HOEKSTRA A Y,CHAPAGAIN A K,ALDAYA M M,et al. The water footprint manual:setting the global standard[M]. London:Earthscan,2011:40-42.
[25] ALLEN R G,PEREIRA L S,RAES D,et al. Crop evapotranspiration:guidelines for computing crop water requirements[R]. Rome:Food and Agriculture Organization,1998.
[26]CHAPAGAIN A K,HOEKSTRA A Y,SAVENIJE H H G,et al. The water footprint of cotton consumption:an assessment of the impact of worldwide consumption of cotton products on the water resources in the cotton producing countries[J]. Ecological Economics,2006,60(1):186-203.
[27]蔡甲冰,刘钰,许迪等.基于通径分析原理的冬小麦缺水诊断指标敏感性分析[J].水利学报,2008,39(1):83-90.(CAI Jiabing,LIU Yu,XU Di,et al. Sensitivity analysis on water deficit indicator of winter wheat based on path analysis theory[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2008,39(1):83-90.(in Chinese))
[28]赵四申,王秀,高清海,等.不同机械施肥方式对玉米生长发育及产量效应的影响[J].农业工程学报,1999,15(3):123-127.(ZHAO Sishen,WANG Xiu,GAO Qinghai,et al. Effect of different mechanical fertilization patterns on maize growth and yield[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,1999,15(3):123-127.(in Chinese))