四川省旅游经济发展的时空动态分析
|
摘要
文章以四川省21个市(州)为研究单元,人均旅游总收入为测量指标,运用多种时空动态分析方法,对2002—2017年四川旅游经济发展的分布特征和演进趋势进行分析。研究表明,四川旅游经济发展水平逐渐提高,极化现象消失,但区域差异逐渐增大;2008年后四川省旅游经济发展全局空间自相关不显著,局部空间自相关显著且具有明显的冷点区和热点区;四川省区域旅游经济发展水平保持自身状态的可能性最大,且低水平与高水平区域较稳定,相邻区域旅游经济发展水平发生转移的可能性较大,邻域状态在四川旅游经济发展动态变化的过程中有一定作用,但与区域自身发展水平和邻域条件有关,作用方式和强度也有差异。
Taking 21 cities of Sichuan province as study unit and per capita total revenue as tourism economic development index, and using various spatial-temporal dynamic analysis methods, this article makes an empirical study on the distribution characteristics and evolution trend of Sichuan's tourism development from 2002 to 2017. It comes to the conclusion from two sides of time series and spatial series as follows:(1) There is a clear upward trend in Sichuan's tourism economic development and differences among cities, and the phenomenon of spatial polarization is disappeared.(2) After 2008, the overall spatial autocorrelation of tourism economic development in Sichuan is not significant, while the local spatial autocorrelation is significant with obvious cold spots and hot spots.(3) The development level of regional tourism economy in Sichuan is most likely to maintain its own state, and the low-level areas and high-level areas are relatively stable. The adjacent development level of regional tourism economy will be more likely to shift. The neighborhood state has a certain role in the process of dynamic changes of Sichuan's tourism economic development. But with different mode action and intensity, it is related to the level of regional self-development and the neighborhood conditions.
Taking 21 cities of Sichuan province as study unit and per capita total revenue as tourism economic development index, and using various spatial-temporal dynamic analysis methods, this article makes an empirical study on the distribution characteristics and evolution trend of Sichuan's tourism development from 2002 to 2017. It comes to the conclusion from two sides of time series and spatial series as follows:(1) There is a clear upward trend in Sichuan's tourism economic development and differences among cities, and the phenomenon of spatial polarization is disappeared.(2) After 2008, the overall spatial autocorrelation of tourism economic development in Sichuan is not significant, while the local spatial autocorrelation is significant with obvious cold spots and hot spots.(3) The development level of regional tourism economy in Sichuan is most likely to maintain its own state, and the low-level areas and high-level areas are relatively stable. The adjacent development level of regional tourism economy will be more likely to shift. The neighborhood state has a certain role in the process of dynamic changes of Sichuan's tourism economic development. But with different mode action and intensity, it is related to the level of regional self-development and the neighborhood conditions.
引文
[1]汪德根,陈田.中国旅游经济区域差异的空间分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(5):528-536.
[2]MARCH R.Diversity in Asian outbound travel industries:A comparison between Indonesia,Thailand,Taiwan,South Korea and Japan[J].International Journal of Hospitality Management,1997,16(2):231-238.
[3]MCKERCHER B.Segment transformation in urban tourism[J].Tourism Management,2008,29(6):1215-1225.
[4]MASSIDDA C,ETZO I.The determinants of Italian domestic tourism:A panel data analysis[J].Tourism Management,2012,33(3):603-610.
[5]KOZAK M,RIMMINGTON M.Measuring tourist destination competitiveness:Conceptual considerations and empirical findings[J].International Journal of Hospitality Management,1999,18(3):273-283.
[6]DWYER L,FORSYTH P,RAO P.The price competitiveness of travel and tourism:A comparison of 19 destinations[J].Tourism Management,2000,21(1):9-22.
[7]UYSAL M,CHEN Joseph S,WILLIAMS Daniel R.Increasing state market share through a regional positioning[J].Tourism Management,2000,21(1):89-96.
[8]ENRIGHT Michael J,NEWTON J.Tourism destination competitiveness:a quantitative approach[J].Tourism Management,2004,25(6):777-788.
[9]张凌云.我国旅游业地域非均衡性增长研究初论[J].南开经济研究,1998,(2):71-74.
[10]陆林,余凤龙.中国旅游经济差异的空间特征分析[J].经济地理,2005,25(3):406-410.
[11]敖荣军,韦燕生.中国区域旅游发展差异影响因素研究-来自1990-2003年的经验数据检验[J].财经研究,2006,32(3):32-43.
[12]方叶林,黄震方,王坤,等.基于PCA-ESDA的中国海域经济时空差异分析[J].经济地理,2012,32(8):149-154.
[13]王良健,李晶晶,陈锦龙.中国省际旅游业发展演进的时空特征[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(10):1249-1255.
[14]张广海,秦素贞.中国省际旅游经济时空演变分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2014,30(2):44-55.
[15]胡文海,陈建平,余菲菲.安徽省区域旅游经济发展的时空格局演变[J].地理研究,2015,34(9):1795-1806.
[16]方法林.长江经济带旅游经济差异时空格局深化及其成因分析[J].南京师大学报(自然科学版),2016,39(1):124-131.
[17]彭睿娟.欠发达地区旅游经济差异的空间分析-以甘肃省为例[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(3):664-670.
[18]陈刚强,李映辉.技术溢出、空间差异与旅游业增长趋同[J].旅游学刊,2017,32(3):85-94.
[19]赵黎明,焦珊珊,姚治国.中国旅游经济发展的分布动态演进[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(1):181-188.
[20]史春云,张捷,尤海梅,等.四川省旅游区域核心-边缘空间格局演变[J].地理学报,2007,62(6):631-639.
[21]杨霞,刘晓鹰.四川省旅游经济的区域差异研究[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版),2012(9):138-142.
[22]李佳.西部旅游资源富集区旅游经济空间差异分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(9):198-202.
[23]杨风,李继红.旅游经济空间差异研究-以四川为例[J].西部经济管理论坛,2018,29(1):72-81.
[24]施祖麟,黄治华.基于核密度估计法的中国省区经济增长动态分析[J].经济经纬,2009,(4):60-63.
[25]刘华军,鲍振,杨骞.中国二氧化碳排放的分布动态与演进趋势[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):1925-1932.
[26]陈明华,刘华军,孙亚男.中国五大城市群金融发展的空间差异及分布动态:2003-2013年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016,33(7):130-144。
[27]蒲英霞,马荣华,葛莹,等.基于空间马尔科夫的江苏区域趋同时空演变[J].地理学报,2005,60(5):817-826.
[2]MARCH R.Diversity in Asian outbound travel industries:A comparison between Indonesia,Thailand,Taiwan,South Korea and Japan[J].International Journal of Hospitality Management,1997,16(2):231-238.
[3]MCKERCHER B.Segment transformation in urban tourism[J].Tourism Management,2008,29(6):1215-1225.
[4]MASSIDDA C,ETZO I.The determinants of Italian domestic tourism:A panel data analysis[J].Tourism Management,2012,33(3):603-610.
[5]KOZAK M,RIMMINGTON M.Measuring tourist destination competitiveness:Conceptual considerations and empirical findings[J].International Journal of Hospitality Management,1999,18(3):273-283.
[6]DWYER L,FORSYTH P,RAO P.The price competitiveness of travel and tourism:A comparison of 19 destinations[J].Tourism Management,2000,21(1):9-22.
[7]UYSAL M,CHEN Joseph S,WILLIAMS Daniel R.Increasing state market share through a regional positioning[J].Tourism Management,2000,21(1):89-96.
[8]ENRIGHT Michael J,NEWTON J.Tourism destination competitiveness:a quantitative approach[J].Tourism Management,2004,25(6):777-788.
[9]张凌云.我国旅游业地域非均衡性增长研究初论[J].南开经济研究,1998,(2):71-74.
[10]陆林,余凤龙.中国旅游经济差异的空间特征分析[J].经济地理,2005,25(3):406-410.
[11]敖荣军,韦燕生.中国区域旅游发展差异影响因素研究-来自1990-2003年的经验数据检验[J].财经研究,2006,32(3):32-43.
[12]方叶林,黄震方,王坤,等.基于PCA-ESDA的中国海域经济时空差异分析[J].经济地理,2012,32(8):149-154.
[13]王良健,李晶晶,陈锦龙.中国省际旅游业发展演进的时空特征[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(10):1249-1255.
[14]张广海,秦素贞.中国省际旅游经济时空演变分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2014,30(2):44-55.
[15]胡文海,陈建平,余菲菲.安徽省区域旅游经济发展的时空格局演变[J].地理研究,2015,34(9):1795-1806.
[16]方法林.长江经济带旅游经济差异时空格局深化及其成因分析[J].南京师大学报(自然科学版),2016,39(1):124-131.
[17]彭睿娟.欠发达地区旅游经济差异的空间分析-以甘肃省为例[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(3):664-670.
[18]陈刚强,李映辉.技术溢出、空间差异与旅游业增长趋同[J].旅游学刊,2017,32(3):85-94.
[19]赵黎明,焦珊珊,姚治国.中国旅游经济发展的分布动态演进[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(1):181-188.
[20]史春云,张捷,尤海梅,等.四川省旅游区域核心-边缘空间格局演变[J].地理学报,2007,62(6):631-639.
[21]杨霞,刘晓鹰.四川省旅游经济的区域差异研究[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版),2012(9):138-142.
[22]李佳.西部旅游资源富集区旅游经济空间差异分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(9):198-202.
[23]杨风,李继红.旅游经济空间差异研究-以四川为例[J].西部经济管理论坛,2018,29(1):72-81.
[24]施祖麟,黄治华.基于核密度估计法的中国省区经济增长动态分析[J].经济经纬,2009,(4):60-63.
[25]刘华军,鲍振,杨骞.中国二氧化碳排放的分布动态与演进趋势[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):1925-1932.
[26]陈明华,刘华军,孙亚男.中国五大城市群金融发展的空间差异及分布动态:2003-2013年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016,33(7):130-144。
[27]蒲英霞,马荣华,葛莹,等.基于空间马尔科夫的江苏区域趋同时空演变[J].地理学报,2005,60(5):817-826.