基于Molchan模型的乌恰地震窗预测效能评价
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摘要
选取2008年1月～2017年6月新疆乌恰单台小震记录数据,分析了在■范围内M_L≥1.0的小震月频度的变化及其与研究区内中强地震的对应关系。同时基于Molchan模型对乌恰地震窗预测效能进行评价,主要研究结果:(1)当乌恰地震窗小震月频度≥175次/月,即出现异常高值时,多数3个月内其后均有M_S≥6.3强震发生。(2)小震月频度的异常形态表现为高值—发震或高值—低值—发震。(3)基于Molchan模型对乌恰地震窗的预测效能进行评价,结果较好,研究结果可以为新疆南天山西段震情趋势研判提供参考依据。
Taking single digit seismograph records of Wuqia seismic station from January 2008 to June 2017 based on the data of Wuqia single seismic window, we selected and researched the monthly frequency change of small earthquakes M_L≥1.0 and the ■ value of 10 s, as well as their relationship with nearby strong earthquakes. We made evaluation on its prediction effectiveness by analyzing the abnormal characteristics of the seismic window and the corresponding relation of moderate strong earthquakes based on Molchan model. The main results showed that:(1) when the abnormality with the monthly frequency of small earthquakes above 175 emerged, then following were the strong earthquakes of M_S≥6.3, the advantage time for strong earthquake was within 3 months.(2) The anomaly patterns of monthly frequency for small earthquakes were characterized by high value-low-earthquake or high value-earthquake.(3) We evaluated the prediction efficiency of Wuqia seismic window based on the Molchan model, and the results were good, which can provide references for the study on seismic trend in the southern part of Tianshan.
Taking single digit seismograph records of Wuqia seismic station from January 2008 to June 2017 based on the data of Wuqia single seismic window, we selected and researched the monthly frequency change of small earthquakes M_L≥1.0 and the ■ value of 10 s, as well as their relationship with nearby strong earthquakes. We made evaluation on its prediction effectiveness by analyzing the abnormal characteristics of the seismic window and the corresponding relation of moderate strong earthquakes based on Molchan model. The main results showed that:(1) when the abnormality with the monthly frequency of small earthquakes above 175 emerged, then following were the strong earthquakes of M_S≥6.3, the advantage time for strong earthquake was within 3 months.(2) The anomaly patterns of monthly frequency for small earthquakes were characterized by high value-low-earthquake or high value-earthquake.(3) We evaluated the prediction efficiency of Wuqia seismic window based on the Molchan model, and the results were good, which can provide references for the study on seismic trend in the southern part of Tianshan.
引文
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[7] 孙丽娜,齐玉妍,温超,等.中长期地震预测中的PI算法改进研究及应用[J].地震,2012,32(4):44-52.
[8] 蒋长胜,张浪平,韩立波,等.中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法Ⅰ:Molchan图表法[J].地震,2011,31(2):106-113.
[9] 冉志杰,张合,温超,等.小震密集带与地质活动断裂的关系研究[J].华北地震科学,2012,30(2):13-16.
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[11] 张琳琳,敖雪明.新疆乌恰地震窗的异常特征与强震短期预报[J].内陆地震,2016,30(4):330-334.
[12] 许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[C]//地震预报方法实用化研究文集—地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社,1989:586-589.
[13] 张彬,杨选辉,陆远忠.地震动态应力触发研究进展[J].西北地震学报,2008,30(3):298-303.
[2] 张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[3] 郑兆苾,庆梅,李敏莉.霍山窗与华东中强地震关系研究[J].地震学刊,1999(2):1-9.
[4] 陈宇卫,张军,庆梅,等.“霍山地震窗”小震序列运动学参数时变特征研究[J].地震,2007,27(1):26-32.
[5] 薛丁,张建业,韩晓明.邢台地震窗对华北6级以上地震的预测[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):206-208.
[6] 薛丁,张建业,赵爱萍.海城地震窗地震活动异常提取及其预报效能[J].地震学报,2012,4(4):487-493.
[7] 孙丽娜,齐玉妍,温超,等.中长期地震预测中的PI算法改进研究及应用[J].地震,2012,32(4):44-52.
[8] 蒋长胜,张浪平,韩立波,等.中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法Ⅰ:Molchan图表法[J].地震,2011,31(2):106-113.
[9] 冉志杰,张合,温超,等.小震密集带与地质活动断裂的关系研究[J].华北地震科学,2012,30(2):13-16.
[10] Jackson D D.Earthquake prediction and forecasting[C]//The State of the Planet:Frontiers and Challenges.Washington 2013:335-348.
[11] 张琳琳,敖雪明.新疆乌恰地震窗的异常特征与强震短期预报[J].内陆地震,2016,30(4):330-334.
[12] 许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[C]//地震预报方法实用化研究文集—地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社,1989:586-589.
[13] 张彬,杨选辉,陆远忠.地震动态应力触发研究进展[J].西北地震学报,2008,30(3):298-303.