明代(公元1368—1644年)钱塘江河口潮灾时空分布及其影响因素
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摘要
钱塘江河口是世界著名强潮河口。基于历史文献资料,系统梳理考证了明代(公元1368—1644年)钱塘江河口潮灾记录,分析了潮灾的空间、时间分布特征:(1)北岸潮灾远多于南岸,海门以上河口段与海门以下河口段潮灾次数基本持平,但均少于河口湾段。(2)潮灾在南北两岸的空间分布上,存在转移与变迁,由此导致两岸分别存在明显的平缓期—爆发期—平缓期交替,但平缓期与爆发期的时长并不固定。(3)潮灾强度变化与潮灾频次分布有较强关联,高强度潮灾多发于潮灾频发期。结合历史气候、江道地形等自然环境背景,探讨了影响潮灾时空分布的要素,认为钱塘江潮灾发生的频次及规模大小与流域内干湿变化及历史气温升降有明显关联,而历史极端潮灾则常是多种要素耦合的结果。
Qiantang River is famous in the world for its strong tidal estuary in the world. Based on historical documents,this paper summarized the distribution characteristics of tidal disasters across time and space. Firstly,tide disasters occurred more frequently in the north shore compared with the south shore. The number of tidal disasters hitting the upstream of Haimen was not significantly different from that for the downstream of Haimen,although both of estuaries had smaller numbers of tidal disasters when comparing with the Qiantang Estuary. Secondly,tide disasters distribution in space has changed,leding to an apparent successive variations between stable period and eruptive period,but the length of the stable period and eruptive period was not fixed. Thirdly,the intensity change of tidal disasters was quite strongly related to their frequency distribution. High strength tidal disasters occurred more frequently during the eruptive period. Ad-ditionally,this paper discussed the influencing factors on the tidal disasters distribution across time and space,in combination with the natural environment background,such as historical climate,channel topography and so on. Results of this study suggests that the frequency and grade of tidal disasters of Qiantang River are related to the changes of historical rainfall and temperature in this area. However,the extreme tidal disaster was caused by the coupling processes of multiple factors.
Qiantang River is famous in the world for its strong tidal estuary in the world. Based on historical documents,this paper summarized the distribution characteristics of tidal disasters across time and space. Firstly,tide disasters occurred more frequently in the north shore compared with the south shore. The number of tidal disasters hitting the upstream of Haimen was not significantly different from that for the downstream of Haimen,although both of estuaries had smaller numbers of tidal disasters when comparing with the Qiantang Estuary. Secondly,tide disasters distribution in space has changed,leding to an apparent successive variations between stable period and eruptive period,but the length of the stable period and eruptive period was not fixed. Thirdly,the intensity change of tidal disasters was quite strongly related to their frequency distribution. High strength tidal disasters occurred more frequently during the eruptive period. Ad-ditionally,this paper discussed the influencing factors on the tidal disasters distribution across time and space,in combination with the natural environment background,such as historical climate,channel topography and so on. Results of this study suggests that the frequency and grade of tidal disasters of Qiantang River are related to the changes of historical rainfall and temperature in this area. However,the extreme tidal disaster was caused by the coupling processes of multiple factors.
引文
陈吉余.2000.海塘:中国海岸变迁和海塘工程.北京:人民出版社,33-34.[Chen J Y.2000.China's Coastal Changes and Seawall Works.Beijing:People's Publishing House,33-34]
陈桥驿.1991.浙江灾异简志.杭州:浙江人民出版社.[Chen Q Y.1991.A Relief Brief of Zhejiang Disaster.Hangzhou:Zhejiang People's Publishing House]
邓辉,王洪波.2015.1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮分布的时空特征.地理研究,34(12):2343-2354.[Deng H,Wang H B.2015.Spatial and temporal patterns of storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces from 1368 to 1911.Geographical Research,34(12):2343-2354]
高建国.1984.中国潮灾近五百年来活动图象的研究.海洋通报,3(2):9-19.[Gao J G.1984.A preliminary study of the activity of China's tide calamities in the past 500 years.Marine Science Bulletin,3(2):9-19]
葛全胜.2010.中国历朝气候变化.北京:科学出版社,494-496.[Ge Q S.2010.Climate Change in China.Beijing:Science Press,494-496]
林炳尧.2008.钱塘江涌潮的特性.北京:海洋出版社,22.[Lin B Y.2008.Characteristics of the Tidal Bore of Qiantang River.Beijing:China Ocean Press,22]
刘炳涛.2011.明代长江中下游地区气候变化研究.复旦大学博士论文,52-134.[Liu B T.2011.Study on Climate Change in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze river.Doctoral Dissertation of Fudan University,52-134]
陆人骥.1984.中国历代灾害性海潮史料.北京:海洋出版社.[Lu RJ.1984.Historical Materials of Disastrous Tides of China.Beijing:China Ocean Press]
潘凤英.1995.历史时期江浙沿海特大风暴潮研究.南京师大学报(自然科学版),18(1):94-100.[Pan F Y.1995.On the huge windstorm tide during historical times in the coastal areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province.Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science),18(1):94-100]
阙维民.2007.公元8-20世纪钱塘江河口段的八次重大改道.环境考古研究,4:218-228.[Que W M.2007.Eight major diversions in the mouth of the Qiantang river in the 8th and 20th centuries.Environmental Archaeology Research,4:218-228]
谭其骧.1996.中国历史地图集·第7册.北京:中国地图出版社,68-69.[Tan Q X.1996.The Historical Atlas of China.VolumeⅦ.Beijing:China Cartographic Publishing House,68-69]
陶存焕,周潮生.2001.明清钱塘江海塘.北京:中国水利水电出版社.[Tao C H,Zhou C S.2001.Qiantang River Seawall of the Ming and Qing Dynasty.Beijing:China Water and Power Press]
陶存焕.2013.钱塘江河口潮灾史料辨误.杭州:浙江古籍出版社.[Tao C H.2013.Textual Research on the Historical materials of Disastrous Tides of Qiantang River.Hangzhou:Zhejiang Ancient Books Publishing House]
王文,谢志仁.1999.中国历史时期海面变化(Ⅱ):潮灾强弱与海面波动.河海大学学报,27(5):43-47.[Wang W,Xie Z R.1999.Historical sea level fluctuations in China(Ⅱ)tidal disaster intensity and sea level change.Journal of HoH ai University.27(5):43-47]
中国气象科学研究院.1981.中国近五百年来旱涝分布图集.北京:地图出版社,6-92.[Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.1981.Yearly Charts of Dryness/Wetness in China for the Last 500-Year Period.Beijing:Cartographic Publishing House,6-92]
周致元.2005.明代东南地区的海潮灾害.史学集刊,(2):87-93.[Zhou Z Y.2005.The tide disaster in south east China in the Ming dynasty.Collected Papers of History Studies,(2):87-93]
周子康.1987.浙江历史上灾害性海潮时空分布的初析.东海海洋,5(4):25-31.[Zhou Z K.1987.A preliminary study on the timespace distribution of damaging tide during A.D.228-1911 along the Zhejiang coast.Donghai Marine Science,5(4):25-31]
朱晓华,肖彬,徐容乐.1998.中国历代灾害性海潮频率特征及时间序列的分形研究.灾害学,13(3):7-12.[Zhu X H,Xiao B,Xu R L.1998.The research on characteristics of frequency and factual analysis applied to time series of tide disasters in the history of China.Journal of Catastrophology,13(3):7-12]
(1)此类情况共4处,史料均记载连年潮患.补录后可使数据更接近实际情况.
(2)陶存焕(2013)先生的《钱塘江河口潮灾史料辨误》一书,详细考订了历代潮灾记录中的错讹,是文中考证史料的重要参考.但文中收录的史料超出此书考订范围,且对于该书的一些考证结果,因发现新证据而未予采纳.
(1)邹勷. 1672.康熙萧山县志·卷11:水利志.
(1)明实录·宣宗实录·卷22:宣德元年10月17日.上海:上海书店出版社.
(2)方观承. 1751.两浙海塘通志·卷3:列代兴修下.
(3)邹勷. 1672.康熙萧山县志·卷9:灾祥志.
(4)张天复. 1551.嘉靖山阴县志·卷12:杂志.
(5)黄钰. 1751.乾隆萧山县志·卷19:祥异.
(6)刘会. 1589.万历萧山县志·卷2:建置志.
(7)在绍兴城北.
(8)祁彪佳日记,转引自董开章《钱塘江海塘工程》手稿.
陈桥驿.1991.浙江灾异简志.杭州:浙江人民出版社.[Chen Q Y.1991.A Relief Brief of Zhejiang Disaster.Hangzhou:Zhejiang People's Publishing House]
邓辉,王洪波.2015.1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮分布的时空特征.地理研究,34(12):2343-2354.[Deng H,Wang H B.2015.Spatial and temporal patterns of storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces from 1368 to 1911.Geographical Research,34(12):2343-2354]
高建国.1984.中国潮灾近五百年来活动图象的研究.海洋通报,3(2):9-19.[Gao J G.1984.A preliminary study of the activity of China's tide calamities in the past 500 years.Marine Science Bulletin,3(2):9-19]
葛全胜.2010.中国历朝气候变化.北京:科学出版社,494-496.[Ge Q S.2010.Climate Change in China.Beijing:Science Press,494-496]
林炳尧.2008.钱塘江涌潮的特性.北京:海洋出版社,22.[Lin B Y.2008.Characteristics of the Tidal Bore of Qiantang River.Beijing:China Ocean Press,22]
刘炳涛.2011.明代长江中下游地区气候变化研究.复旦大学博士论文,52-134.[Liu B T.2011.Study on Climate Change in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze river.Doctoral Dissertation of Fudan University,52-134]
陆人骥.1984.中国历代灾害性海潮史料.北京:海洋出版社.[Lu RJ.1984.Historical Materials of Disastrous Tides of China.Beijing:China Ocean Press]
潘凤英.1995.历史时期江浙沿海特大风暴潮研究.南京师大学报(自然科学版),18(1):94-100.[Pan F Y.1995.On the huge windstorm tide during historical times in the coastal areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province.Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science),18(1):94-100]
阙维民.2007.公元8-20世纪钱塘江河口段的八次重大改道.环境考古研究,4:218-228.[Que W M.2007.Eight major diversions in the mouth of the Qiantang river in the 8th and 20th centuries.Environmental Archaeology Research,4:218-228]
谭其骧.1996.中国历史地图集·第7册.北京:中国地图出版社,68-69.[Tan Q X.1996.The Historical Atlas of China.VolumeⅦ.Beijing:China Cartographic Publishing House,68-69]
陶存焕,周潮生.2001.明清钱塘江海塘.北京:中国水利水电出版社.[Tao C H,Zhou C S.2001.Qiantang River Seawall of the Ming and Qing Dynasty.Beijing:China Water and Power Press]
陶存焕.2013.钱塘江河口潮灾史料辨误.杭州:浙江古籍出版社.[Tao C H.2013.Textual Research on the Historical materials of Disastrous Tides of Qiantang River.Hangzhou:Zhejiang Ancient Books Publishing House]
王文,谢志仁.1999.中国历史时期海面变化(Ⅱ):潮灾强弱与海面波动.河海大学学报,27(5):43-47.[Wang W,Xie Z R.1999.Historical sea level fluctuations in China(Ⅱ)tidal disaster intensity and sea level change.Journal of HoH ai University.27(5):43-47]
中国气象科学研究院.1981.中国近五百年来旱涝分布图集.北京:地图出版社,6-92.[Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.1981.Yearly Charts of Dryness/Wetness in China for the Last 500-Year Period.Beijing:Cartographic Publishing House,6-92]
周致元.2005.明代东南地区的海潮灾害.史学集刊,(2):87-93.[Zhou Z Y.2005.The tide disaster in south east China in the Ming dynasty.Collected Papers of History Studies,(2):87-93]
周子康.1987.浙江历史上灾害性海潮时空分布的初析.东海海洋,5(4):25-31.[Zhou Z K.1987.A preliminary study on the timespace distribution of damaging tide during A.D.228-1911 along the Zhejiang coast.Donghai Marine Science,5(4):25-31]
朱晓华,肖彬,徐容乐.1998.中国历代灾害性海潮频率特征及时间序列的分形研究.灾害学,13(3):7-12.[Zhu X H,Xiao B,Xu R L.1998.The research on characteristics of frequency and factual analysis applied to time series of tide disasters in the history of China.Journal of Catastrophology,13(3):7-12]
(1)此类情况共4处,史料均记载连年潮患.补录后可使数据更接近实际情况.
(2)陶存焕(2013)先生的《钱塘江河口潮灾史料辨误》一书,详细考订了历代潮灾记录中的错讹,是文中考证史料的重要参考.但文中收录的史料超出此书考订范围,且对于该书的一些考证结果,因发现新证据而未予采纳.
(1)邹勷. 1672.康熙萧山县志·卷11:水利志.
(1)明实录·宣宗实录·卷22:宣德元年10月17日.上海:上海书店出版社.
(2)方观承. 1751.两浙海塘通志·卷3:列代兴修下.
(3)邹勷. 1672.康熙萧山县志·卷9:灾祥志.
(4)张天复. 1551.嘉靖山阴县志·卷12:杂志.
(5)黄钰. 1751.乾隆萧山县志·卷19:祥异.
(6)刘会. 1589.万历萧山县志·卷2:建置志.
(7)在绍兴城北.
(8)祁彪佳日记,转引自董开章《钱塘江海塘工程》手稿.
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