基于LMDI的内蒙古碳排放影响因素研究
|
摘要
运用LMDI模型对内蒙古碳排放的影响因素进行分解,分解为碳排放量、能源结构、能源效率和人均GDP四个因素,并利用2007—2017年内蒙古经济发展和碳排放相关数据,对上述影响因素进行动态分析。结果表明:经济增长与碳排放两者存在着密切的关系,经济增长是内蒙古碳排放量增大最主要的因素,各类影响因素表现出明显的阶段特征,呈现出倒U型的特点,研究揭示了内蒙古以煤为主的能源结构和粗放的经济增长方式,并提出政策建议,包括优化能源结构、提高能源效率和增强低碳技术研发能力。
The LMDI model was used to decompose the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia and decompose into four factors:carbon emissions,energy structure,energy efficiency and per capita GDP,using the data on economic development and carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia from 2007 to 2017,the dynamic analysis was conducted on the above influencing factors. The results showed that there is a close relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. Economic growth is the most important factor in the increase of carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia. Various influencing factors showed obvious stage characteristics,showing the characteristics of inverted U-shaped. It revealed the coal-based energy structure and extensive economic growth mode in Inner Mongolia,and policy recommendations were proposed including optimizing energy structure,improving energy efficiency and enhancing low-carbon technology research and development capabilities.
The LMDI model was used to decompose the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia and decompose into four factors:carbon emissions,energy structure,energy efficiency and per capita GDP,using the data on economic development and carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia from 2007 to 2017,the dynamic analysis was conducted on the above influencing factors. The results showed that there is a close relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. Economic growth is the most important factor in the increase of carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia. Various influencing factors showed obvious stage characteristics,showing the characteristics of inverted U-shaped. It revealed the coal-based energy structure and extensive economic growth mode in Inner Mongolia,and policy recommendations were proposed including optimizing energy structure,improving energy efficiency and enhancing low-carbon technology research and development capabilities.
引文
[1]中国西部经济发展报告[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[2]付慧.内蒙古自治区的低碳经济发展研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2011.
[3]钱贵霞,张一品,邬建国.内蒙古能源消费碳排放变化的分解分析[J]技术经济,2010(12):77-84.
[4]王俊松,贺灿飞.能源消费、经济增长与中国CO2排放量变化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(1):18-23.
[5]郭运功,林逢春,白义琴,等.上海市能源利用碳排放的分解研究[J].环境污染与防治,2009,31(9):68-72.
[6]宋德勇,卢忠宝.中国碳排放影响因素分解及其周期性波动研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(3):18-24.
[7]赵欣,龙如银.江苏省碳排放现状及因素分解实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(7):25-30.
[8]Wu L,Kaneko S,Matsuoka S.Driving forces behind the stagnancy of China’s energy-related CO2 emissions from 1996 to1999:the relative importance of structural change,intensity change and scale change[J].Energy Policy,2005,33(3):319-335.
[9]朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,等.中国能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解及实证分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(12):2072-2079.
[10]Ma C,Stern D I.Biomass and China\"s carbon emissions:Amissing piece of carbon decomposition[J].Energy Policy,2008,36(7):2517-2526.
[11]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006(6):158-161.
[12]梁进社,郑蔚,蔡建明.中国能源消费增长的分解--基于投入产出方法[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(6):853-864.
[13]孟昭利.企业能源审计方法[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002:266-267.
[14]刘燕娜,洪燕真,余建辉.福建省碳排放的因素分解实证研究[J].技术经济,2010,29(8):58-61.
[15]陈立泰,张军委,万丽娟.重庆市碳排放量测度及影响因素分析:1998-2008[J].探索,2010(3):106-110.
[16]李国志,李宗植.人口、经济和技术对二氧化碳排放的影响分析[J].人口研究,2010,34(3):32-39.
[17]李磊.内蒙古经济发展中碳排放变动的因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(8):7-12.
[18]崔庆云.内蒙古煤炭产业发展转型的必然趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(2):32-33.
[2]付慧.内蒙古自治区的低碳经济发展研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2011.
[3]钱贵霞,张一品,邬建国.内蒙古能源消费碳排放变化的分解分析[J]技术经济,2010(12):77-84.
[4]王俊松,贺灿飞.能源消费、经济增长与中国CO2排放量变化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(1):18-23.
[5]郭运功,林逢春,白义琴,等.上海市能源利用碳排放的分解研究[J].环境污染与防治,2009,31(9):68-72.
[6]宋德勇,卢忠宝.中国碳排放影响因素分解及其周期性波动研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(3):18-24.
[7]赵欣,龙如银.江苏省碳排放现状及因素分解实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(7):25-30.
[8]Wu L,Kaneko S,Matsuoka S.Driving forces behind the stagnancy of China’s energy-related CO2 emissions from 1996 to1999:the relative importance of structural change,intensity change and scale change[J].Energy Policy,2005,33(3):319-335.
[9]朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,等.中国能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解及实证分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(12):2072-2079.
[10]Ma C,Stern D I.Biomass and China\"s carbon emissions:Amissing piece of carbon decomposition[J].Energy Policy,2008,36(7):2517-2526.
[11]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006(6):158-161.
[12]梁进社,郑蔚,蔡建明.中国能源消费增长的分解--基于投入产出方法[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(6):853-864.
[13]孟昭利.企业能源审计方法[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002:266-267.
[14]刘燕娜,洪燕真,余建辉.福建省碳排放的因素分解实证研究[J].技术经济,2010,29(8):58-61.
[15]陈立泰,张军委,万丽娟.重庆市碳排放量测度及影响因素分析:1998-2008[J].探索,2010(3):106-110.
[16]李国志,李宗植.人口、经济和技术对二氧化碳排放的影响分析[J].人口研究,2010,34(3):32-39.
[17]李磊.内蒙古经济发展中碳排放变动的因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(8):7-12.
[18]崔庆云.内蒙古煤炭产业发展转型的必然趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(2):32-33.