国际油价基本面因素的新变化及走势展望
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摘要
2019年年初至今,影响国际油价中长期走势的基本面出现明显的新变化,主要有:世界经济增长进一步放缓;全球供需新格局进一步巩固,但需求增长减缓;中美俄大国关系变迁撼动石油市场;中美贸易摩擦对国际贸易的损害凸显,委内瑞拉危机、美伊对峙等事件悬而不决,但对国际石油市场冲击有限。本文分析各因素发展态势,对国际油价短期走势进行展望:在中东没有较大规模战争的情况下,短期内油价可能维持区间震荡(布伦特油价50～74美元/桶),如果2020年全球经济形势增长乏力的态势进一步恶化,油价有跌破上述区间的可能。国内石油公司应做好应对低油价的预案,坚持科技创新战略,持续推进降本增效的体制机制改革。
From the beginning of 2019 to now,there have been obvious new changes in the fundamentals affecting the long-term and medium-term trend of international oil prices,such as further slowdown of world economic growth,further consolidation of the new pattern of global supply and demand,but slowdown of demand growth,and changing relations between China,the United States and Russia shake the oil market;trade frictions between China and the United States have caused serious damage to international trade;events such as the Venezuelan crisis and the confrontation between the United States and Iraq remain unresolved,but the impact on the international oil market is limited.This paper analyses the development trend of various factors and judges that:in the absence of war in the Middle East,the international oil price will return to the fundamentals,and in the next year,the oil price will maintain a range consolidation(Brent oil price 50 MYM-74 MYM/BBL),with a certain probability of breaking down.The oil companies should make good plans to deal with low oil prices,adhere to the strategy of scientific and technological innovation,and continue to promote the reform of the system and mechanism to reduce cost and increase efficiency.
From the beginning of 2019 to now,there have been obvious new changes in the fundamentals affecting the long-term and medium-term trend of international oil prices,such as further slowdown of world economic growth,further consolidation of the new pattern of global supply and demand,but slowdown of demand growth,and changing relations between China,the United States and Russia shake the oil market;trade frictions between China and the United States have caused serious damage to international trade;events such as the Venezuelan crisis and the confrontation between the United States and Iraq remain unresolved,but the impact on the international oil market is limited.This paper analyses the development trend of various factors and judges that:in the absence of war in the Middle East,the international oil price will return to the fundamentals,and in the next year,the oil price will maintain a range consolidation(Brent oil price 50 MYM-74 MYM/BBL),with a certain probability of breaking down.The oil companies should make good plans to deal with low oil prices,adhere to the strategy of scientific and technological innovation,and continue to promote the reform of the system and mechanism to reduce cost and increase efficiency.
引文
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[4]BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019|68th edition[EB/OL].https：∥www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html．
[5]韩永辉，张帆，李子文．中美经贸关系演进的现状、动因与对策[J]．战略决策研究，2018(4):24-39.HAN Yonghui,ZHANG Fan,LI Ziwen.China-U.S.economic relationship:current status,motivations and solutions[J].Strategic Decision Research,2018(4):24-39．
[6]李勇慧．中俄美三角关系：现状、特点、成因及应对[J]．俄罗斯东欧中亚研究，2018(5):57-70.LI Yonghui.The triangle relations between China,Russia and U.S.:the status,characteristics,causes and countermeasures[J].Russian,East European&Central Asian Studies,2018(5):57-70．
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