Uncertainty Analysis for Groundwater Modeling

详细信息   

• 责任者：Wu Jichun (Department of Hydrosciences ; School of Earth Sciences and Engineering ; Nanjing University ; Nanjing 210093 ; China) ; Lu Le
• 刊名：Journal of Nanjing University
• 出版年：2011
• 卷期：47(3)
• 关键词：地下水 ; groundwater ; 数值模拟 ; numerical simulation
• 页码：p.227-234
• 图表：3 illus., 2 tables, 22 refs.
• 分类号：1701
• 出版序号：1295
• issnNo：ISSN0469-5097
• isbnNo：CN32-1169/N

摘要

 
    

The reliability of groundwater modeling is vulnerable to many uncertain factors. Thus, it is necessary to quantify the uncertainties in groundwater modeling. These uncertainties are divided into three categories: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and information uncertainty, while each is illustrated and analyzed respectively. Then the common methods of uncertainty analysis for groundwater modeling as well as the recent advances of this topic in China are reviewed. In addition, an example of quantification of uncertainty in conceptual model is presented, which indicates that errors in model structure can result in critical increase of uncertainty in model results.