• 责任者：Lin Hui (Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province ; Kunming 650224 ; China) ; Gu Ningjie
• 刊名：Journal of Seismological Research
• 出版年：2011
• 卷期：34(4)
• 关键词：大气降水 ; atmospheric precipitation ; 强震 ; strong earthquakes ; 云南 ; Yunnan Province
• 页码：p.428-434
• 图表：6 illus., 1 table, 10 refs.
• 分类号：0500
• issnNo：ISSN1000-0666
• isbnNo：CN53-1062/P

Analyzing correlation between annual precipitation and the M≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan since 1960, we find that when the mean annual precipitation in Yunnan is less than 1 000 mm, or the number of the stations whose annual precipitation anomaly is lower than 25% is larger than 20, the corresponding probabitity of M≥7 earthquake in Yunnan Province in the following year is only 25% and 33%,  respectively. Analyzing the spatial distribution of precipitation in Yunnan Province, the authors find that one year before the M≥6 earthquakes more than 80% of the total, the annual precipitation near the epicenters of the earthquakes is 20% higher than the average. The authors think that the precipitation loaded on the crust may trigger the earthquake, but it is only a modulator. The intrinsic factor is decisive for the earthquake.