• 责任者：Wang Yan (Central Seismic Station of Tianshui ; Earthquake Administration of Gansu Province ; Tianshui 741020 ; China) ; Yang Xingyue
• 刊名：Journal of Seismological Research
• 出版年：2013
• 卷期：36(1)
• 关键词：地下水动态 ; groundwater regime ; 地震前兆 ; precursor ; 甘肃 ; Gansu Province
• 页码：p.24-33
• 图表：illus., 6 tables, 12 refs.
• 分类号：0500
• issnNo：ISSN1000-0666
• isbnNo：CN53-1062/P

Using the methods of subordinate function, variation rate and trend rate, we extracted the earthquakes pre- cursory anomalies from observation＇ data of analogue water level in Gansu Province. The result indicated that：  （ 1 ） 4 items of water level data included 31 subordinate function anomalies, 29 variation rate anomalies and 23 trend rate anomalies from Jan. , 1987 to Sep. , 2011. Among them, 22 subordinate function anomalies, 21 variation rate anomalies and 14 trend rate anomalies corresponded with the Ms 〉 5 earthquakes that ever occurred in Gansu Province and its adjacent region. By the analysis of the features of these anomalies and their relation to the earthquakes, the method of time prediction for the moderate-strong and strong earthquakes were proposed, and the empirical constant, anomaly threshold value of variation rate and trend rate were obtained from subordi- nate function of analogue water level in Gansu Province. （2） Using the methods of subordinate function, varia- tion rate and trend rate, abnormal result which was quantitatively extracted was better. R value was greater than R0 value obtained by the effectiveness evaluation of abnormal identification method. The results showed that con- fidence level of this method is at least 97.5 %, which indicated these three methods are effectiveness.