Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Sichuan-Yunnan Region, Western China
详细信息
- 责任者：Wang Fan (State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics ; Institute of Geology ; China Earthquake Administration ; Beijing 100029 ; China) ; Shen Zhengkang
- 刊名：Seismology and Geology
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：35(1)
- 关键词：地震危险性 ; seismic risk ; 云南 ; Yunnan Province ; 贵州 ; Guizhou Province
- 页码：p.101-112
- 图表：illus., 1 table, 30 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN0253-4967
- isbnNo：CN11-2192/P
摘要
As the southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau,the Sichuan-Yunnan region is carved by ample tectonic active faults. Many strong earthquakes have taken place in the past,and some of which resulted in massive damages and great losses of human lives. In this study we attempt to estimate the seismic hazard potential using two different approaches. Our first approach follows Kagan and Jackson(1994)and uses earthquake catalog data to estimate the mid-to long-term spatial probability of strong earthquakes,based on the assumption that earthquake likelihood is proportional to the intensity and quantity of past events. A retrospective test shows that the model offers reasonable ‘forecasts’statistically over the last 37 years,based on the catalog data of previous 470 years for model constraints. Our second approach is to use secular geodetic strain rate deduced from GPS velocity data to constrain earthquake probability model,assuming that likelihood of strong earthquakes is spatially proportional to the geodetic strain rate. A retrospective test of the model with earthquake occurrence of the past 30 years shows that the model ‘forecasted’poorly,but did reasonably well when comparing with the catalog data of the past 500 years,suggesting that the geodetic strain rate obtained at the decade scale may still be a good indicator of long-term earthquake activity in the region,but only at a time scale of hundreds of years.
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