The Permafrost Distribution Model and Its Change Trend of Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor
详细信息
- 责任者：Lu Jiahao (State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering ; CAS ; Lanzhou 730000 ; China) ; Niu Fujun
- 刊名：Journal of Mountain Research
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：31(2)
- 关键词：多年冻土 ; permafrost ; 青藏高原 ; Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
- 页码：p.226-233
- 图表：illus., 3 tables, 29 refs.
- 分类号：1400
- issnNo：ISSN1008-2786
- isbnNo：CN51-1516/P
摘要
The permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is resulted from the interaction of the atmosphere-earth system.The atmosphere controls the macrostructure of the permafrost.However,some local factors such as slope-aspect,also greatly affect the permafrost status.According to the consequence of Pearson Correlation Analysis,we select some factors greatly influencing the permafrost distribution in a section from the Chumaer River to the Fenghuo Mountain in the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor.The factors that can be easily quantified by GIS were latitude,elevation and slope-aspect.Based on records of the mean annual ground temperature from 29 boreholes in the section,the relationship model between the mean annual ground and the elevation,latitude and slope-aspects is constructed using regression analysis method.When multiple correlation coefficient is significant with a value of 0.936.Then a simulated map of permafrost distribution is produced through the indices for cold region engineering purpose.Every zone’s area is also calculated.Then,we predict the permafrost change in the study area after 50a,supposing the air temperature might rise 1.25℃.The prediction shows that the low temperature stable zone and sub-stable zone might shrink from 14.98%,15.96% at present to 4.81%,14.45% respectively.At the same time,the high temperature unstable zone might greatly transform into high temperature extreme unstable zone,which might be in the degradation.Such changes will influence the local infrastructures seriously in future.
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