上海农业碳排估算、结构特征及经济脱钩弹性
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摘要
为探讨上海郊区低碳农业经济的发展潜力与方向,参照IPCC提供的农业碳排系数和浙江省畜牧业和种植业的甲烷排放系数,考察了上海9个郊县近20年的农业碳排总量和结构特征。结果表明:2013年上海郊县的农业碳排总量排名前三的是浦东新区、崇明县和奉贤区,3个区县碳排之和占上海地区农业碳排总量的58.27%;上海郊区每万元农业产值排放二氧化碳当量,从1992年的2.5 t降至2013年0.95 t;1992—2013年上海农业碳排放的年平均几何增长率为9.1%,其中,能耗、农资、水稻灌溉和畜禽肠道发酵分别占农业碳排总量的54%、17%、18%和11%。以1992年为基期,计算了上海郊区1992—2013年农业碳排的脱钩弹性系数,结果显示农业碳排与农业经济发展之间基本呈弱脱钩关系。
This paper discussed the potential of carbon emission abatement in Shanghai agriculture to achieve low-carbon agricultural economy.Agro-emission coefficients suggested by IPCC,and modified methane coefficients from ranching and planting in Zhejiang Province,were used to calculate the total agro-emissions,while the agro-emissions from Pudong,Chongming,and Fengxian rank top three among nine suburbs,and account for 58%of total emissions;Emission intensity,measured in tons of CO_2-equivalent per 10,000 RMB of agricultural GDP,appeared to be decreasing continuously from 2.5 tons in 1992 to less than 0.95 tons in 2013;Geometric growth rate of Shanghai agro-emission was about 9.1%on average for the time period of 1992—2013;Agroemissions from energy consumption,inputs usage,irrigation and ranching,accounted for 54%,17%,18%and11%of total agro-emissions respectively.Decoupling elasticity was calculated using 1992 as a baseline,and elasticity ranges between-0.01 and 0.3 during 1992-2013,indicating that agro-emission had been weakly decoupled with agricultural economic development in Shanghai suburbs.
This paper discussed the potential of carbon emission abatement in Shanghai agriculture to achieve low-carbon agricultural economy.Agro-emission coefficients suggested by IPCC,and modified methane coefficients from ranching and planting in Zhejiang Province,were used to calculate the total agro-emissions,while the agro-emissions from Pudong,Chongming,and Fengxian rank top three among nine suburbs,and account for 58%of total emissions;Emission intensity,measured in tons of CO_2-equivalent per 10,000 RMB of agricultural GDP,appeared to be decreasing continuously from 2.5 tons in 1992 to less than 0.95 tons in 2013;Geometric growth rate of Shanghai agro-emission was about 9.1%on average for the time period of 1992—2013;Agroemissions from energy consumption,inputs usage,irrigation and ranching,accounted for 54%,17%,18%and11%of total agro-emissions respectively.Decoupling elasticity was calculated using 1992 as a baseline,and elasticity ranges between-0.01 and 0.3 during 1992-2013,indicating that agro-emission had been weakly decoupled with agricultural economic development in Shanghai suburbs.
引文
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[17]张福锁,王激情,张卫峰,等.中国主要粮食作物肥料利用率现状与提高途径[J].土壤学报,2008,45(5):916-924.
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[4]董红敏,李玉娥,陶秀萍,等.中国农业源温室气体排放与减排技术对策[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(10):269-273.
[5]黄祖辉,米松华.农业碳足迹研究:以浙江省为例[J].农业经济问题,2011,32(11):40-47.
[6]钱晓雍.上海农田生态系统碳源碳汇时空格局及影响因素分析[J].农业环境科学学报,2011,30(2):1460-1467.
[7]TAPIO P.Towards a theory of decoupling degrees of decoupling in the EU and ease of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001[J].Transport policy,2005,32(3):110-116.
[8]员开奇,董捷.湖北省碳排放研究:总量测算、结构分析和脱钩弹性[J].农业现代化研究2014,35(4):397-402.
[9]国家发改委气候司.2014年中国区域电网基准线排放因子[EB/OL].[2015-03-20]http://www.chinapower.com.cn/newsarticle/1102/newl 102172.asp.
[10]李波,张俊飚,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分解[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2011,21(8):80-86.
[11]张仁健,王明星,李晶,等.中国甲烷排放现状[J].气候与环境研究,1999,4(2):194-202.
[12]WEST T O,MARLAND G.A synthesis of carbon sequestration,carbon emissions and net carbon flux in agriculture:comparing tillage practice in the United States[J].Agriculture,Ecosystem and Environment,2002,91(1):217-232.
[13]南京农业大学.南京农业大学农业资源与生态环境研究所2010年年报[EB/OL].[2011-01-15]http://www.guandang.net/pdf/888351.html.
[14]汤勇华,林月霞.上海地区化肥施用与粮食产量现状分析[J].上海农业学报,2013,29(4):112-114.
[15]栾江,仇焕广,井月,等.我国化肥施用量持续增长的原因分解及趋势预测[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(11):1869-1878.
[16]曹其炜,茅国芳,吴永兴.沪郊农田化肥施用特点及其发展趋势探讨[J].上海农业学报,2008,24(4):20-24.
[17]张福锁,王激情,张卫峰,等.中国主要粮食作物肥料利用率现状与提高途径[J].土壤学报,2008,45(5):916-924.
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