夏季季节内振荡与中国东南地区降水的延伸期预报

详细信息    查看全文 | 下载全文 | 推荐本文 |

• 作者：徐邦琪T LiJ-Y LeeK-J Ha
• 会议时间：2015-03-12
• 关键词：区域降水 ; 延伸期预报 ; 季节内振荡
• 作者单位：徐邦琪(气候与环境变化国际联合实验室及大气科学学院,南京信息工程大学,南京,中国)T Li(气候与环境变化国际联合实验室及大气科学学院,南京信息工程大学,南京,中国;International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA)J-Y Lee(Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea)K-J Ha(Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea)
• 母体文献：中国气象局气候研究开放实验室2014年度学术年会论文集
• 会议名称：中国气象局气候研究开放实验室2014年度学术年会
• 会议地点：北京
• 主办单位：中国气象局气候研究开放实验室
• 语种：chi
• 分类号：P42;P73

摘要

How boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) modulates the probability and spatialdistributions of extreme rainfall occurrence over populous Southeast China was examined, usingthe newly proposed BSISO indices and two high-resolution rain-gauge-based rainfall datasets inChina. The probability density function of May-August rainfall in Southeast China is skewedtoward large values in phases 2-4 0f the first component and in phases 5-7 0f the secondcomponent of BSISO life cycle, during which the probability of extreme rainfall events at the 75th(90th) percentile increases by 30-50% (over 60%) relative to the non-BSISO period. The mostdevastating floods with prolonged extreme rainfall in the Yangtze River Valley and southenChinaover the past half-century occurred coincidently with these BSISO phases. Moisture budgetindicates that the favorable environment for rainfall extreme is associated with southwesterlymoisture convergence over Southeast China, while the moisture advection contributesinsignificantly. This study suggests a potential for monitoring and probabilistic prediction ofextreme rainfall events in Southeast China based on the real-time BSISO indices.