保险发展、市场结构对社会福利的影响研究
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摘要
本文在一个封闭的拉姆齐模型的基础上,引入代表性行为人具有有限生命的条件,探讨保险发展、市场结构改变对社会福利的影响。发现保险发展在一定条件下可增进社会福利,保险市场垄断降低竞争加强会提高福利。然后,本文利用中国31个省市在2005-2014年间的面板数据,考虑内生性,采用2SLS方法,进一步将保险发展划分为为保险深度与保险赔付两个层次,对保险发展与保险市场结构影响福利的规律进行了计量分析。研究发现保险深度、保险赔付均可显著提高福利水平,同时保险市场垄断程度的降低会显著提高福利水平。基于面板门槛回归表明,保险深度、赔付与市场结构对社会福利的影响存在较为明显的门槛效应。
Based on a closed Ramsey model,this paper introduce the conditions that the representative person has a limited life,and discuss the effects of insurance development and insurance market structure on social welfare. We find that the insurance development can improve the welfare under certain conditions.Meanwhile,the model shows that reducing the monopoly and strengthening the competition in the insurance market will improve the welfare. Then using panel data for 31 Chinese provinces during 2005-2014 in consideration of the endogenous premise,adopting the method of 2SLS,and dividing the insurance development into insurance depth and insurance compensation,this paper empirically analyzes the effects of insurance development and insurance market structure on social welfare. The results show that insurance depth and insurance compensation can significantly improve the welfare,and reducing the monopoly degree can also improve the social welfare. The model based on the panel threshold regression shows that there is an obvious threshold effect on social welfare of insurance depth,insurance compensation and insurance market structure.
Based on a closed Ramsey model,this paper introduce the conditions that the representative person has a limited life,and discuss the effects of insurance development and insurance market structure on social welfare. We find that the insurance development can improve the welfare under certain conditions.Meanwhile,the model shows that reducing the monopoly and strengthening the competition in the insurance market will improve the welfare. Then using panel data for 31 Chinese provinces during 2005-2014 in consideration of the endogenous premise,adopting the method of 2SLS,and dividing the insurance development into insurance depth and insurance compensation,this paper empirically analyzes the effects of insurance development and insurance market structure on social welfare. The results show that insurance depth and insurance compensation can significantly improve the welfare,and reducing the monopoly degree can also improve the social welfare. The model based on the panel threshold regression shows that there is an obvious threshold effect on social welfare of insurance depth,insurance compensation and insurance market structure.
引文
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[13]邵全权.保险业市场结构、产寿险结构对“保险-经济增长”系统的影响[J].保险研究,2015(12):3-20.
[14]谭毅,袁缘.农业保险缩小城乡收入差距的作用分析——基于动态面板模型的GMM估计[J].吉林金融研究,2013(11):26-34.
[15]王翠琴,田勇.城乡居民基本养老保险缩小了收入差距吗?——基于湖北省数据的实证检验[J].农村经济,2015(12):74-79.
[16]Yaari M E.Uncertain lifetime,life insurance,and the theory of the consumer[J].Review of Economic Studies,1965,32(2),137-150.
[17]魏华林.保险经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2011.
[18]李长英.产业组织理论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2011.
[19]Vo X-V.Net private capital flows and economic growth–the case of emerging Asian economies[J].Applied Economics,2010,42(24):3135-3146.
[20]Doytch N,Uctum M.Does the worldwide shift of FDI from manufacturing to services accelerate economic growth?A GMM estimation study[J].Journal of International Money&Finance,2011,30(3):410-427.
[21]Hasan I,Wachtel P,Zhou Mingming.Institutional development,financial deepening and economic growth:Evidence from China[J].Journal of Banking&Finance,2009,33(1):157-170.
[2]王志平.“人类发展指数”(HDI):含义、方法及改进[J].上海行政学院学报,2007,8(3):47-57.
[3]田辉,孙剑平,朱英明.我国各地区经济社会发展的综合测度分析——基于HDI的研究[J].经济管理,2008(2):69-76.
[4]诸大建.1980-2005年中国经济增长对福利的贡献[A].中国管理现代化研究会.第三届(2008)中国管理学年会——金融分会场论文集[C].中国管理现代化研究会,2008,12.
[5]胡宏兵,苏萌.保险发展与居民幸福感——来自WVS中国数据的经验证据[J].财经问题研究,2014(12):52-59.
[6]尹晓旭.我国保险发展与居民消费增长的关系研究[D].吉林大学,2014.
[7]杨胜利,谢超,杨书华.收入、保险与居民幸福感研究——来自中国家庭收入调查的经验证据[J].云南财经大学学报,2016(3):69-80.
[8]杜欣荣.购买保险能提高城镇居民的幸福感吗?——基于中国家庭收入调查数据的分析[J].南方金融,2016(4):73-80.
[9]Borch K.Equilibrium in a reinsurance market[J].Econometrica,1962,30(3):424-444.
[10]郑伟,刘永东.中国保险业中长期增长潜力分析[J].北京大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2007(5):105-114.
[11]Vadlamannati K C.Do insurance sector growth and reforms affect economic development?empirical evidence from India[J].Margin the Journal of Applied Economic Research,2008,2(1):43-86.
[12]杨晓荣.保险业发展与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2012(1):147-149.
[13]邵全权.保险业市场结构、产寿险结构对“保险-经济增长”系统的影响[J].保险研究,2015(12):3-20.
[14]谭毅,袁缘.农业保险缩小城乡收入差距的作用分析——基于动态面板模型的GMM估计[J].吉林金融研究,2013(11):26-34.
[15]王翠琴,田勇.城乡居民基本养老保险缩小了收入差距吗?——基于湖北省数据的实证检验[J].农村经济,2015(12):74-79.
[16]Yaari M E.Uncertain lifetime,life insurance,and the theory of the consumer[J].Review of Economic Studies,1965,32(2),137-150.
[17]魏华林.保险经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2011.
[18]李长英.产业组织理论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2011.
[19]Vo X-V.Net private capital flows and economic growth–the case of emerging Asian economies[J].Applied Economics,2010,42(24):3135-3146.
[20]Doytch N,Uctum M.Does the worldwide shift of FDI from manufacturing to services accelerate economic growth?A GMM estimation study[J].Journal of International Money&Finance,2011,30(3):410-427.
[21]Hasan I,Wachtel P,Zhou Mingming.Institutional development,financial deepening and economic growth:Evidence from China[J].Journal of Banking&Finance,2009,33(1):157-170.
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