摘要
本文利用第二代月动力延伸预测模式业务系统(Dynamic Extended Range Forecast,DERF 2.0)提供的1983—2015年位势高度场资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及东北地区气温实况场,从DERF 2.0产品降尺度解释应用角度出发,建立了一套完整的东北地区月气温预测模型的方案,对东北地区11月气温进行了降尺度解释应用,建立了基于DERF 2.0产品东北地区11月气温的预测模型。结果表明:通过对基于DERF 2.0产品建立的东北地区11月气温预测模型的检验分析可知,建立的模型对东北地区月气温具有较高的预报技巧(Ps评分较高),对月气温预测具有较明显的改进,可在实际气候预测业务中应用,并对模型的稳定性问题进行了探讨,逐步改进完善预测模型。
Based on the geopotential height field products from 1983 to 2015 provided by the DERF( Dynamic Extended Range Forecast) operational system version 2. 0,NCEP/NCAR( National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data,and monthly mean temperature data in Northeast China,a scheme for monthly-temperature prediction was established by using the downscaling interpretation and application of the DERF v2. 0 products. A temperature prediction model in November in Northeast China was established based on the above methods. The results showthat this model has a good forecasting performance,with a high Ps score and can be used in the climate forecasting operation. Meanwhile,the model's stability for forecasting the temperature in November is discussed,and some solutions to improve this model are provided.
引文
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