2008—2016年黑龙江省短时强降水分布特征及影响系统
|
摘要
利用2008—2016年6-8月黑龙江省844个自动雨量站资料,采用了多级判别法、一元线性回归、平均值显著性检验、配料等方法统计黑龙江省311天的2 154个站次短时强降水的时空分布特征;再利用常规气象资料、NECP的1°×1°再分析资料总结这些短时强降水在对流层中层500 h Pa和地面主要影响系统。分析结果表明:黑龙江省短时强降水日数和站次都与本年6-8月全省总平均降水量成线性关系,相关性分别为0.841和0.917;按照区域尺度划分的局地性、区域性和大范围短时强降水中,在强降水日数和分布上依次减小和不均,在强降水站次和连续性上依次增加;2008年和2013年分别为短时强降水最少和最多的年份;局地性和区域性短时强降水分别在7月上、下旬为达到峰值,大范围短时强降水在6月上、中旬分布很少,8月下旬没有,其它时间均匀分布;由于受太阳辐射,下垫面影响,午后12~19时是强降水高发期,14~15时达到站次最高值,1~4时为站次最低值;短时强降水主要分布在海拔为100~200 m的西南地区,北部地区分布较少;北部和东南部部分地区没有大范围短时强降水产生;多项数据表明太阳辐射导致的非绝热加热为强降水特别是局地强降水带来巨大贡献;高空低值系统与地面锋面共同影响是产生短时强降水及增加降水面积的主要影响系统;由于受降水性质和系统发生频率以及水汽和热力等条件影响,受高空槽前配合地面暖锋影响比例最大。
In this paper,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-term heavy precipitation in2 154 stations of 311 d in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed,which are based on the data of 844 automatic rainfall stations in Heilongjiang Province from June to August in 2008—2016 by a multi-level discriminant method,a linear regression,the mean significance test and other methods. Then we reanalyzed 500 h Pa and ground surface of the main impact systems using the conventional meteorological data and NCEP 1° × 1°resolution. The results show that the number of heavy rainfall days and stations are linear with the average precipitation in the whole province from June to August this year. The correlation coefficients are 0. 841 and 0. 917 respectively. The local,regionaland large-scale short-term heavy rainfall,which are divided according to the regional scale,are reduced and unevenly in the number and distribution of heavy rainfall days,and then increase in succession and succession in heavy rainfall stations. The least and the largest short-term heavy rainfall years from 2008 and 2013. Local and regional short-term heavy rainfall in July,respectively,to reach the peak in late,a large range of short-term heavy rainfall in June,the distribution of the middle of very few,in late August,no other time evenly distributed. Due to solar radiation,the underlying surface of the impact of the afternoon 12 ~ 19 is a high incidence of heavy rainfall,14 ~15 hours to reach the highest station,1 ~ 4 times the lowest value for the station. Short-term heavy rainfall is mainly distributed in the southwest region with an elevation of 100 ~ 200 m,and less in the northern region. There is no large-scale short-term heavy precipitation in the northern and southeastern parts of China. A number of data indicate that non-adiabatic heating due to solar radiation contributes significantly to heavy rainfall,especially local heavy precipitation. Due to the nature of the precipitation and the frequency of the system,as well as water vapor and heat conditions,the ratio of the upper air front and ground warm front is the largest.
In this paper,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-term heavy precipitation in2 154 stations of 311 d in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed,which are based on the data of 844 automatic rainfall stations in Heilongjiang Province from June to August in 2008—2016 by a multi-level discriminant method,a linear regression,the mean significance test and other methods. Then we reanalyzed 500 h Pa and ground surface of the main impact systems using the conventional meteorological data and NCEP 1° × 1°resolution. The results show that the number of heavy rainfall days and stations are linear with the average precipitation in the whole province from June to August this year. The correlation coefficients are 0. 841 and 0. 917 respectively. The local,regionaland large-scale short-term heavy rainfall,which are divided according to the regional scale,are reduced and unevenly in the number and distribution of heavy rainfall days,and then increase in succession and succession in heavy rainfall stations. The least and the largest short-term heavy rainfall years from 2008 and 2013. Local and regional short-term heavy rainfall in July,respectively,to reach the peak in late,a large range of short-term heavy rainfall in June,the distribution of the middle of very few,in late August,no other time evenly distributed. Due to solar radiation,the underlying surface of the impact of the afternoon 12 ~ 19 is a high incidence of heavy rainfall,14 ~15 hours to reach the highest station,1 ~ 4 times the lowest value for the station. Short-term heavy rainfall is mainly distributed in the southwest region with an elevation of 100 ~ 200 m,and less in the northern region. There is no large-scale short-term heavy precipitation in the northern and southeastern parts of China. A number of data indicate that non-adiabatic heating due to solar radiation contributes significantly to heavy rainfall,especially local heavy precipitation. Due to the nature of the precipitation and the frequency of the system,as well as water vapor and heat conditions,the ratio of the upper air front and ground warm front is the largest.
引文
[1]辛吉武,许向春.我国的主要气象灾害及防御对策[J].灾害学,2007,22(3):85-89.XIN Jiwu,XU Xiangchun.The main meteorological disasters in China and the countermeasures[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2007,22(3):85-89.(in Chinese)
[2]朱红蕊,张洪玲,孙爽,等.1956—2011年黑龙江省龙卷风气候特征[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(3):98-103.ZHU Hongrui,ZHANG Hongling,SUN Shuang,et al.Climate characteristics of Tornado from 1956 to 2011 in Heilongjiang province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(3):98-103.(in Chinese)
[3]王娟,谌芸.2009—2012年中国闪电分布特征分析[J].气象,2015,41(2):160-170.WANG Juan,CHEN Yun.Analysis of the 2009—2012 lightning distribution characteristics in China[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(2):160-170.(in Chinese)
[4]俞小鼎,姚秀萍,熊庭南,等.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].北京:气象出版社,2006,(1):170-180.YU Xiaoding,YAO Xiuping,XIONG Tingnan,et al.Doppler Weather Radar Principle and Its Application[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2006(1):170-180.(in Chinese)
[5]何斌,范晓红,盛文斌,等.“2013·7·21”杭州湾北岸短时大暴雨的中尺度分析[J].气象,2015,41(7):842-851.HE Bin,FAN Xiaohong,SHWNG Wenbin,et al.Mesoscale analysis on a short—time severe rainstorm in the north of Hangzhou bay on 21 July2013[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(7):842-851.(in Chinese)
[6]郑婧,孙素琴,吴静,等.梅雨锋短时大暴雨的多尺度环境场分析[J].气象,2014.40(5):570-579.ZHENG Jing,SUN Suqin,WU Jing,et al.Analysis on multi-scale ambient field for shot-time severe torrential rain on Meiyu front[J].Meteorological Monthly,2014,40(5):570-579.(in Chinese)
[7]何晗,谌芸,肖天贵,等.冷涡背景下短时强降水的统计分析[J].气象,2015,41(12):1466-1476.HE Han,CHEN Yun,XIAO Tiangui,et al.Statistical analysis of severe short-time precipitation under cold vortex background[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(12):1466-1476.(in Chinese)
[8]沈澄,颜廷柏,刘冬晴,等.2008—2012年南京短时强降水特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(1):28-33.SHEN Cheng,YAN Tingbo,LIU Dongqing,et al.Characteristics of short-time heavy precipitation from 2008 to 2012 in Nanjing[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(1):28-33.(in Chinese)
[9]段鹤,夏文梅,苏晓力,等.短时强降水特征统计及临近预警[J].气象,2014.40(10):1194-1206.DUAN He,XIA Wenmei,SU Xiaoli,et al.Features statistics and warning of flash heavy rains[J].Meteorological Monthly,2014,40(10):1194-1206.(in Chinese)
[10]那济海,张晰莹.黑龙江预报员手册[M].2013,22-103.NA Jihai,ZHANG Xiying.Heilongjiang Forecaster Handbook[M].2013,22-103.(in Chinese)
[11]那济海,周秀杰,吴玉影.黑龙江省夏季6,7,8月降水与全国雨型变化关系分析[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(6):151-160.NA Jihai,ZHOU Xiujie,WU Yuying.Analysis of relationship between Heilongjiang provincial precipitation in June,July,August and nationwide rain type change[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,22(6):151-160.(in Chinese)
[12]景学义,方丽娟,郭家林,等.黑龙江省暴雨的特征及天气学分类[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(1):53-58.JING Xueyi,FANG Lijuan,GUO Jialin,et al.Characteristics of heavy rain in Heilongjiang province and its classification[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(1):53-58.(in Chinese)
[13]孔凡超,赵庆海,李江波.2013年7月冀中特大暴雨的中尺度系统特征和环境条件分析[J].气象,2016,42(5):578-588.KONG Fanchao,ZHAO Qinghai,LI Jiangbo,Diagnostic analysis of mesoscale system and environmental condition during Hebei severe rainstorm[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(5):578-588.(in Chinese)
[2]朱红蕊,张洪玲,孙爽,等.1956—2011年黑龙江省龙卷风气候特征[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(3):98-103.ZHU Hongrui,ZHANG Hongling,SUN Shuang,et al.Climate characteristics of Tornado from 1956 to 2011 in Heilongjiang province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(3):98-103.(in Chinese)
[3]王娟,谌芸.2009—2012年中国闪电分布特征分析[J].气象,2015,41(2):160-170.WANG Juan,CHEN Yun.Analysis of the 2009—2012 lightning distribution characteristics in China[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(2):160-170.(in Chinese)
[4]俞小鼎,姚秀萍,熊庭南,等.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].北京:气象出版社,2006,(1):170-180.YU Xiaoding,YAO Xiuping,XIONG Tingnan,et al.Doppler Weather Radar Principle and Its Application[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2006(1):170-180.(in Chinese)
[5]何斌,范晓红,盛文斌,等.“2013·7·21”杭州湾北岸短时大暴雨的中尺度分析[J].气象,2015,41(7):842-851.HE Bin,FAN Xiaohong,SHWNG Wenbin,et al.Mesoscale analysis on a short—time severe rainstorm in the north of Hangzhou bay on 21 July2013[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(7):842-851.(in Chinese)
[6]郑婧,孙素琴,吴静,等.梅雨锋短时大暴雨的多尺度环境场分析[J].气象,2014.40(5):570-579.ZHENG Jing,SUN Suqin,WU Jing,et al.Analysis on multi-scale ambient field for shot-time severe torrential rain on Meiyu front[J].Meteorological Monthly,2014,40(5):570-579.(in Chinese)
[7]何晗,谌芸,肖天贵,等.冷涡背景下短时强降水的统计分析[J].气象,2015,41(12):1466-1476.HE Han,CHEN Yun,XIAO Tiangui,et al.Statistical analysis of severe short-time precipitation under cold vortex background[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(12):1466-1476.(in Chinese)
[8]沈澄,颜廷柏,刘冬晴,等.2008—2012年南京短时强降水特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(1):28-33.SHEN Cheng,YAN Tingbo,LIU Dongqing,et al.Characteristics of short-time heavy precipitation from 2008 to 2012 in Nanjing[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(1):28-33.(in Chinese)
[9]段鹤,夏文梅,苏晓力,等.短时强降水特征统计及临近预警[J].气象,2014.40(10):1194-1206.DUAN He,XIA Wenmei,SU Xiaoli,et al.Features statistics and warning of flash heavy rains[J].Meteorological Monthly,2014,40(10):1194-1206.(in Chinese)
[10]那济海,张晰莹.黑龙江预报员手册[M].2013,22-103.NA Jihai,ZHANG Xiying.Heilongjiang Forecaster Handbook[M].2013,22-103.(in Chinese)
[11]那济海,周秀杰,吴玉影.黑龙江省夏季6,7,8月降水与全国雨型变化关系分析[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(6):151-160.NA Jihai,ZHOU Xiujie,WU Yuying.Analysis of relationship between Heilongjiang provincial precipitation in June,July,August and nationwide rain type change[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,22(6):151-160.(in Chinese)
[12]景学义,方丽娟,郭家林,等.黑龙江省暴雨的特征及天气学分类[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(1):53-58.JING Xueyi,FANG Lijuan,GUO Jialin,et al.Characteristics of heavy rain in Heilongjiang province and its classification[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(1):53-58.(in Chinese)
[13]孔凡超,赵庆海,李江波.2013年7月冀中特大暴雨的中尺度系统特征和环境条件分析[J].气象,2016,42(5):578-588.KONG Fanchao,ZHAO Qinghai,LI Jiangbo,Diagnostic analysis of mesoscale system and environmental condition during Hebei severe rainstorm[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(5):578-588.(in Chinese)
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |