巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8地震时空对称与旋转规律研究及趋势判断
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摘要
灾害预测是世界难题,选取1966年以来巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8地震数据,基于可公度理论和对称性原理,采用蝴蝶结构图和灾害统计方法分析了巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8地震的时空对称性,对下一次发生地震的位置进行趋势判断,并结合可能触发地震的主要天文因素,从地震触发机理上验证了判断结果的可靠性。结果表明:(1)巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8历史地震可公度性良好,2018、2019年发震信号较强;(2)巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8地震在空间上呈三边形对称结构,震中空间变化具有两点线空间迁移规律和空间旋转规律,且在70.9°E～77.7°E,31.5°N～37°N发生M_w≥5.8地震的可能性较大;(3)巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8地震多发生在太阳黑子数下降段,这也进一步佐证了2018、2019年该地区发生地震的可能性。该研究对完善统计方法,验证统计案例有重大意义,对巴基斯坦防灾减灾有参考价值。
The hazard prediction is a worldwide problem.Exploiting the seismic data of all the earthquakes with MW≥5.8 since 1966 of Pakistan,this paper analyses their space-time symmetry by using the butterfly structure and disaster statistics calculation method based on the commensurability theory and symmetry principle.According to the law of space rotation in the epicenter and the characteristic of the epicenter migration pattern of the adjacent space wired,the trend judgement for the location of next earthquake can be made:(1) the commensurability of Pakistan historical earthquake of MW≥5.8 is good,the signal for an earthquake in 2018 and 2019 is strong;(2) a MW≥5.8 earthquake is likely to happen in 70.9° E～77.7° E,31.5° N～37° N of Pakistan according to the spatial characteristics of earthquake epicenter position;(3) most MW≥5.8 earthquakes happened during the stage when the number of sunspots declines,which offers a further evidence for the next earthquake in 2018 and 2019 in the region.This study provides a good reference in improving the statistical method,verifying statistical case,and for the disaster prevention and mitigation of Pakistan.
The hazard prediction is a worldwide problem.Exploiting the seismic data of all the earthquakes with MW≥5.8 since 1966 of Pakistan,this paper analyses their space-time symmetry by using the butterfly structure and disaster statistics calculation method based on the commensurability theory and symmetry principle.According to the law of space rotation in the epicenter and the characteristic of the epicenter migration pattern of the adjacent space wired,the trend judgement for the location of next earthquake can be made:(1) the commensurability of Pakistan historical earthquake of MW≥5.8 is good,the signal for an earthquake in 2018 and 2019 is strong;(2) a MW≥5.8 earthquake is likely to happen in 70.9° E～77.7° E,31.5° N～37° N of Pakistan according to the spatial characteristics of earthquake epicenter position;(3) most MW≥5.8 earthquakes happened during the stage when the number of sunspots declines,which offers a further evidence for the next earthquake in 2018 and 2019 in the region.This study provides a good reference in improving the statistical method,verifying statistical case,and for the disaster prevention and mitigation of Pakistan.
引文
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[6]黄圣睦,董瑞英.巴基斯坦曼塞赫拉7.8级地震对中国大陆大震趋势影响的初步研究[J].四川地震,2006(2)7-12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-8115.2006.02.002HUANG S M,DONG R Y.Primary study on the impact of the M7.8Pakistan earthquake on 8 October2005 on the tendency f strong earthquake in main land of China[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,2006(2):7-12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-8115.2006.02.002
[7]GELLER R J,JACKSON D D,YAN Y K,et al.Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J].Science,1997,275(5306):1616-1617.
[8]KNOPOFF L.预测是困难的但并非不可能[J].国际地震动态,1999(6):29-31.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.1999.06.011KNOPOFF L.Earthquake prediction is difficult but not impossible[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,1999(6):29-31.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.1999.06.011
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[10]IVANOV A V,SAN’KOV V A,SMEKALIN OP,et al.Estimation of the recurrence period of strong earthquakes in zones of the Main Sayan and Tunka Faults according to the data of radiocarbon dating and statistical analysis[J].Seismic Instruments,2010,46(4):63-371.DOI:10.3103/S0747923910040067
[11]NOVOPASHINA A V,SAN’KOV V A,BUDDO V Y.Space-time analysis of earthquakegenerating structures in the Baikal Rift system[J].Journal of Volcanology and Seismology,2012,6(4):259-267.DOI:10.1134/S0742046312040045
[12]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.WENG W B.The Basis of Prediction Theory[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1984.
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[16]龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81-84.LONG X X,YAN J P,SUN H,et al.Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2006,21(3):81-84.
[17]高新甜,延军平,董婕.厄瓜多尔MS≥6.8级地震时空对称性及趋势判断[J].华南地震,2016,36(2):41-49.DOI:10.13512/j.hndz.2016.02.007GAO X T,YAN J P,DONG J.Space-time symmetry and tendency judgement for earthquakes with Ms≥6.8 in Ecuador[J].South China Journal of Seismology,2016,36(2):41-49.DOI:10.13512/j.hndz.2016.02.007
[18]延军平,白晶,苏坤慧,等.对称性与部分重大自然灾害趋势研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(7):1159-1168.DOI:10.11821/yj2011070001YAN J P,BAI J,SU K H,et al.Research on symmetry and tendency of several major natural disasters[J].Geographical Research,2011,30(7):1159-1168.DOI:10.11821/yj2011070001
[19]陈立军.2013年巴基斯坦7.7级地震与兴都库什的地震构造[J].内陆地震,2015,29(1):15-27.DOI:10.16256/j.issn.1001-8956.2015.01.002CHEN L J.Pakistan earthquake with MS7.7 in 2013and causative structure of Hindu Kush[J].Inland Earthquake,2015,29(1):15-27.DOI:10.16256/j.issn.1001-8956.2015.01.002
[20]吴良士.巴基斯坦伊斯兰共和国地质构造与区域成矿[J].矿床地质,2010,29(1):192-194.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0258-7106.2010.01.018WU L S.The Islamic Republic of Pakistan geological structure and regional metallogeny[J].Mineral Deposits,2010,29(1):192-194.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0258-7106.2010.01.018
[21]姚文光,洪俊,杨博,等.巴基斯坦主要铜矿类型及特征[J].矿物学报,2013(s2):1076-1077.DOI:10.16461/j.cnki.1000-4734.2013.s2.092YAO W G,HONG J,YANG B,et al.Types and characteristics of main copper deposits in Pakistan[J].Acta Mineralogica Sinica,2013(s2):1076-1077.DOI:10.16461/j.cnki.1000-4734.2013.s2.092
[22]宋治平,张国民,刘杰,等.全球地震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,2011.SONG Z P,ZHANG G M,LIU J,et al.The Global Earthquake Catalogue[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2011.
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