基于彭曼公式日均值时序分析的中国蒸发能力动态成因
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摘要
蒸发能力是全球气候变化背景下水资源管理和水灾害防治的靶向性指标,其动态成因分析集中于年尺度,可靠性需多尺度验证。本文基于中国819个气象站1961—2015年的逐日数据,利用时间序列分析方法挖掘年潜在蒸发量趋势和突变;提出彭曼公式全微分日求积方法,计算年均日潜在蒸发量变化的气象要素累积贡献率,甄别区域驱动因子和成因。经分析,各站年潜在蒸发量倾向率均值为-3. 3 mm/(10 a),东西部为负值、中部为正值;各站年潜在蒸发量突变年份均值为1987年;东部潜在蒸发量减少由地表净辐射量减少所致,相应区域累积贡献率为280;西部潜在蒸发量减少由相对湿度增加所致,相应区域累积贡献率为175;中部潜在蒸发量增加由温度和风速增加所致,相应区域累积贡献率分别为355和121。
Evaporation capacity is the targeting index of water resources management and water disaster control under the global climate change. Attribution analysis of evaporation capacity concentrates on the annual scale in most researches. The verification of the corresponding attribution needs multiscale analysis. Daily meteorological data were selected at 819 stations in China from 1961 to 2015,in addition to potential evaporation( ETp). The trend and change points of annual ETpwere excavated according to the time series analysis method at stations. Another special method was proposed based on diurnal-scale total differential quadrature of Penman equation. This method was directly applied for the contributions of meteorological variables on the first order difference of daily ETp. It was further used for the accumulative contributions of meteorological elements on the changes in mean daily ETp. According to the contributions,the driving forces and corresponding reasons of the changes in evaporation capacity were analyzed. It was concluded that the mean value of the tendency rates was-3. 3 mm/( 10 a) at all stations. It spatially presented negative in Western and Eastern China and positive in Central China.Mean value of change points was 1987 at all stations. The driving force of decreasing ETpwas decreasing net radiation in Eastern China. Corresponding accumulative contribution rate was 280. The driving force of decreasing ETpwas increasing relative humidity in Western China. Corresponding accumulativecontribution rate was 175. The driving forces of increasing ETpwere increasing temperature and wind speed in Central China. Corresponding accumulative contribution rates were 355 and 121,respectively.
Evaporation capacity is the targeting index of water resources management and water disaster control under the global climate change. Attribution analysis of evaporation capacity concentrates on the annual scale in most researches. The verification of the corresponding attribution needs multiscale analysis. Daily meteorological data were selected at 819 stations in China from 1961 to 2015,in addition to potential evaporation( ETp). The trend and change points of annual ETpwere excavated according to the time series analysis method at stations. Another special method was proposed based on diurnal-scale total differential quadrature of Penman equation. This method was directly applied for the contributions of meteorological variables on the first order difference of daily ETp. It was further used for the accumulative contributions of meteorological elements on the changes in mean daily ETp. According to the contributions,the driving forces and corresponding reasons of the changes in evaporation capacity were analyzed. It was concluded that the mean value of the tendency rates was-3. 3 mm/( 10 a) at all stations. It spatially presented negative in Western and Eastern China and positive in Central China.Mean value of change points was 1987 at all stations. The driving force of decreasing ETpwas decreasing net radiation in Eastern China. Corresponding accumulative contribution rate was 280. The driving force of decreasing ETpwas increasing relative humidity in Western China. Corresponding accumulativecontribution rate was 175. The driving forces of increasing ETpwere increasing temperature and wind speed in Central China. Corresponding accumulative contribution rates were 355 and 121,respectively.
引文
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[3] BOUCHET R J. Evapotranspiration réelle et potentielle,signification climatique[J]. IAHS Publications,1963,62:134-142.
[4]孙福宝.基于Budyko水热耦合平衡假设的流域蒸散发研究[D].北京:清华大学,2007.SUN Fubao. Study on watershed evapotranspiration based on the Budyko hypothesis[D]. Beijing:Tsinghua University,2007.(in Chinese)
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[8]符娜,宋孝玉,夏露,等.云南省不同生态水文分区参考作物蒸散量算法适用性评价[J/OL].农业机械学报,2017,48(5):208-217. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? file_no=20170526&flag=1. DOI:10.6041/j. issn. 1000-1298. 2017. 05. 026.FU Na,SONG Xiaoyu,XIA Lu,et al. Adaptation evaluation for reference evapotranspiration calculation methods in different eco-hydrological regionalization of Yunnan Province[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(5):208-217.(in Chinese)
[9]王升,付智勇,陈洪松,等.基于随机森林算法的参考作物蒸发蒸腾量模拟计算[J/OL].农业机械学报,2017,48(3):302-309. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? file_no=20170338&flag=1. DOI:10. 6041/j.issn. 1000-1298. 2017. 03. 038.WANG Sheng,FU Zhiyong,CHEN Hongsong,et al. Simulation of reference evapotranspiration based on random forest method[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(3):302-309.(in Chinese)
[10] DONOHUE R J,MCVICAR T R,RODERICK M L. Assessing the ability of potential evaporation formulations to capture the dynamics in evaporative demand within a changing climate[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2010,386(1):186-197.
[11]鲁向晖,白桦,穆兴民,等.江西省潜在蒸发量变化规律及“蒸发悖论”成因分析[J].生态与农村环境学报,2016,32(4):552-557.LU Xianghui,BAI Hua,MU Xingmin,et al. Trends of potential evapotranspiration in Jiangxi Province and formation of evaporation paradox[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Enviroment,2016,32(4):552-557.(in Chinese)
[12]张勇军,黎雯行,符一平,等.基于四元函数全微分求积研究[J].海南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,29(4):309-312.ZHANG Yongjun,LI Wenxing,FU Yiping,et al. Complete differential quadrature of function with four variables[J]. Natural Science Journal of Hainan University,2011,29(4):309-312.(in Chinese)
[13]NGSTRM A. Solar and terrestrial radiation. Report to the international commission for solar research on actinometric investigations of solar and atmospheric radiation[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1924,50(210):121-126.
[14]吴立峰,刘惠英,张富仓.辐射模型不同率定方法总辐射数据缺失插补比较[J/OL].农业机械学报,2016,47(10):172-180. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? file_no=20161023&flag=1. DOI:10. 6041/j.issn. 1000-1298. 2016. 10. 023.WU Lifeng,LIU Huiying,ZHANG Fucang. Comparison of different calibration methods onngstr9m-Prescott model for missing data interpolation[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2016,47(10):172-180.(in Chinese)
[15] MCVICAR T R,RODERICK M L,DONOHUE R J,et al. Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial nearsurface wind speeds:implications for evaporation[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2012,416-417:182-205.
[16] NASH J E,SUTCLIFFE J V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-a discussion of principles[J]. Journal of Hydrology,1970,10(3):282-290.
[17] LILLIEFORS H W. On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the exponential distribution with mean unknown[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1969,64(325):387-389.
[18] LILLIEFORS H W. On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality with mean and variance unknown[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1967,62(318):399-402.
[19] SARANGI A,MADRAMOOTOO C A,ENRIGHT P. Comparison of spatial variability techniques for runoff estimation from a Canadian watershed[J]. Biosystems Engineering,2006,95(2):295-308.
[20] MAIDMENT D R. Handbook of hydrology[M]. McGraw-Hill,Inc.,1993.
[21] ZHANG Q,LIU C,XU C,et al. Observed trends of annual maximum water level and streamflow during past 130 years in the Yangtze River basin,China[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2006,324(1-4):255-265.
[22] PETTITT A N. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1979,28(2):126-135.
[23] SOME’E B S,EZANI A,TABARI H. Spatiotemporal trends and change point of precipitation in Iran[J]. Atmospheric Research,2012,113:1-12.
[24] GOOSSENS C,BERGER A. Annual and seasonal climatic variations over the northern hemisphere and Europe during the last century[J]. Annales Geophysicae,1986,4(4):385-400.
[25]胡胜杰,牛振国,张海英,等.中国潜在湿地分布的模拟[J].科学通报,2015,60(33):3251-3262.HU Shengjie,NIU Zhenguo,ZHANG Haiying,et al. Simulation of spatial distribution of China potential wetland[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2015,60(33):3251-3262.(in Chinese)
[26]黄明,苏巧梅,黄诗哲.基于ARCGIS计算SRTM数据DEM坡度的最优方法探讨[J].四川农业大学学报,2013,31(4):456-460.HUANG Ming,SU Qiaomei,HUANG Shizhe. Optimum calculation method of SRTM DEM data based on ARCGIS technology[J]. Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University,2013,31(4):456-460.(in Chinese)
[27] GOSSET W S.“Student's”collected papers[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1942.
[28] FAN J,WU L,ZHANG F,et al. Climate change effects on reference crop evapotranspiration across different climatic zones of China during 1956—2015[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2016,542:923-937.
[29] WILD M,OHMURA A,GILGEN H. On the consistency of trends in radiation and temperature records and implications for the global hydrological cycle[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2004,31(11):293-317.
[30] PAPAIOANNOU G, KITSARA G, ATHANASATOS S. Impact of global dimming and brightening on reference evapotranspiration in Greece[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2011,116(D9):D09107.
[31] MILLY P C D,DUNNE K A. Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying[J]. Nature Climate Change,2016,6(10):946-949.
[32] VALLIS G K,ZURITA-GOTOR P,CAIRNS C,et al. Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2015,141(690):1479-1501.
[33]姚俊强,杨青,刘志辉,等.中国西北干旱区降水时空分布特征[J].生态学报,2015,35(17):5846-5855.YAO Junqiang,YANG Qing,LIU Zhihui,et al. Spatio-temporal change of precipitation in arid region of the Northwest China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(17):5846-5855.(in Chinese)
[2] YANG D,SUN F,LIU Z,et al. Interpreting the complementary relationship in non-humid environments based on the Budyko and Penman hypotheses[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(18):L18402.
[3] BOUCHET R J. Evapotranspiration réelle et potentielle,signification climatique[J]. IAHS Publications,1963,62:134-142.
[4]孙福宝.基于Budyko水热耦合平衡假设的流域蒸散发研究[D].北京:清华大学,2007.SUN Fubao. Study on watershed evapotranspiration based on the Budyko hypothesis[D]. Beijing:Tsinghua University,2007.(in Chinese)
[5] BUDYKO M I. Climate and life[M]. Translated from Russian by MILLER D H. San Diego:Academic,1974.
[6]傅抱璞.论陆面蒸发的计算[J].大气科学,1981,5(1):23-31.FU Baopu. On the calculation of the evaporation from land surface[J]. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,1981,5(1):23-31.(in Chinese)
[7] ALLEN R G,PEREIRA L S,RAES D,et al. Crop evapotranspiration guidelines for computing crop water requirements[R].Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56. Rome:FAO,1998.
[8]符娜,宋孝玉,夏露,等.云南省不同生态水文分区参考作物蒸散量算法适用性评价[J/OL].农业机械学报,2017,48(5):208-217. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? file_no=20170526&flag=1. DOI:10.6041/j. issn. 1000-1298. 2017. 05. 026.FU Na,SONG Xiaoyu,XIA Lu,et al. Adaptation evaluation for reference evapotranspiration calculation methods in different eco-hydrological regionalization of Yunnan Province[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(5):208-217.(in Chinese)
[9]王升,付智勇,陈洪松,等.基于随机森林算法的参考作物蒸发蒸腾量模拟计算[J/OL].农业机械学报,2017,48(3):302-309. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? file_no=20170338&flag=1. DOI:10. 6041/j.issn. 1000-1298. 2017. 03. 038.WANG Sheng,FU Zhiyong,CHEN Hongsong,et al. Simulation of reference evapotranspiration based on random forest method[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(3):302-309.(in Chinese)
[10] DONOHUE R J,MCVICAR T R,RODERICK M L. Assessing the ability of potential evaporation formulations to capture the dynamics in evaporative demand within a changing climate[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2010,386(1):186-197.
[11]鲁向晖,白桦,穆兴民,等.江西省潜在蒸发量变化规律及“蒸发悖论”成因分析[J].生态与农村环境学报,2016,32(4):552-557.LU Xianghui,BAI Hua,MU Xingmin,et al. Trends of potential evapotranspiration in Jiangxi Province and formation of evaporation paradox[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Enviroment,2016,32(4):552-557.(in Chinese)
[12]张勇军,黎雯行,符一平,等.基于四元函数全微分求积研究[J].海南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,29(4):309-312.ZHANG Yongjun,LI Wenxing,FU Yiping,et al. Complete differential quadrature of function with four variables[J]. Natural Science Journal of Hainan University,2011,29(4):309-312.(in Chinese)
[13]NGSTRM A. Solar and terrestrial radiation. Report to the international commission for solar research on actinometric investigations of solar and atmospheric radiation[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1924,50(210):121-126.
[14]吴立峰,刘惠英,张富仓.辐射模型不同率定方法总辐射数据缺失插补比较[J/OL].农业机械学报,2016,47(10):172-180. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? file_no=20161023&flag=1. DOI:10. 6041/j.issn. 1000-1298. 2016. 10. 023.WU Lifeng,LIU Huiying,ZHANG Fucang. Comparison of different calibration methods onngstr9m-Prescott model for missing data interpolation[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2016,47(10):172-180.(in Chinese)
[15] MCVICAR T R,RODERICK M L,DONOHUE R J,et al. Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial nearsurface wind speeds:implications for evaporation[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2012,416-417:182-205.
[16] NASH J E,SUTCLIFFE J V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-a discussion of principles[J]. Journal of Hydrology,1970,10(3):282-290.
[17] LILLIEFORS H W. On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the exponential distribution with mean unknown[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1969,64(325):387-389.
[18] LILLIEFORS H W. On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality with mean and variance unknown[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1967,62(318):399-402.
[19] SARANGI A,MADRAMOOTOO C A,ENRIGHT P. Comparison of spatial variability techniques for runoff estimation from a Canadian watershed[J]. Biosystems Engineering,2006,95(2):295-308.
[20] MAIDMENT D R. Handbook of hydrology[M]. McGraw-Hill,Inc.,1993.
[21] ZHANG Q,LIU C,XU C,et al. Observed trends of annual maximum water level and streamflow during past 130 years in the Yangtze River basin,China[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2006,324(1-4):255-265.
[22] PETTITT A N. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1979,28(2):126-135.
[23] SOME’E B S,EZANI A,TABARI H. Spatiotemporal trends and change point of precipitation in Iran[J]. Atmospheric Research,2012,113:1-12.
[24] GOOSSENS C,BERGER A. Annual and seasonal climatic variations over the northern hemisphere and Europe during the last century[J]. Annales Geophysicae,1986,4(4):385-400.
[25]胡胜杰,牛振国,张海英,等.中国潜在湿地分布的模拟[J].科学通报,2015,60(33):3251-3262.HU Shengjie,NIU Zhenguo,ZHANG Haiying,et al. Simulation of spatial distribution of China potential wetland[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2015,60(33):3251-3262.(in Chinese)
[26]黄明,苏巧梅,黄诗哲.基于ARCGIS计算SRTM数据DEM坡度的最优方法探讨[J].四川农业大学学报,2013,31(4):456-460.HUANG Ming,SU Qiaomei,HUANG Shizhe. Optimum calculation method of SRTM DEM data based on ARCGIS technology[J]. Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University,2013,31(4):456-460.(in Chinese)
[27] GOSSET W S.“Student's”collected papers[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1942.
[28] FAN J,WU L,ZHANG F,et al. Climate change effects on reference crop evapotranspiration across different climatic zones of China during 1956—2015[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2016,542:923-937.
[29] WILD M,OHMURA A,GILGEN H. On the consistency of trends in radiation and temperature records and implications for the global hydrological cycle[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2004,31(11):293-317.
[30] PAPAIOANNOU G, KITSARA G, ATHANASATOS S. Impact of global dimming and brightening on reference evapotranspiration in Greece[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2011,116(D9):D09107.
[31] MILLY P C D,DUNNE K A. Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying[J]. Nature Climate Change,2016,6(10):946-949.
[32] VALLIS G K,ZURITA-GOTOR P,CAIRNS C,et al. Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2015,141(690):1479-1501.
[33]姚俊强,杨青,刘志辉,等.中国西北干旱区降水时空分布特征[J].生态学报,2015,35(17):5846-5855.YAO Junqiang,YANG Qing,LIU Zhihui,et al. Spatio-temporal change of precipitation in arid region of the Northwest China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(17):5846-5855.(in Chinese)
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