基于水热平衡的抚河流域地表径流长期预估
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摘要
预估气候变化背景下流域地表径流的变化是水资源合理开发与利用的前提。以抚河流域为研究区,从地表径流形成的宏观机理出发,基于水热平衡构建可描述大尺度上气候要素、下垫面要素和地表径流3者之间定量关系的流域尺度水文模型。结合假定的气候变化情况和CMIP5气候变化预估成果,评估抚河流域对气候变化的敏感性,并预估2020—2050年期间抚河流域地表径流的变化。结果表明:1)所构建的抚河流域水热平衡模型对年尺度径流模拟效果较好,且模型参数少,计算简单。2)抚河流域对气候变化敏感性相对较低,气温每升高1.0℃,地表径流减少3.6%～6.3%;降水每增加1%,地表径流增加1.7%～1.9%。3)未来抚河流域表现出增温的特点,2020—2050年多年平均气温相对于1961—1990年增加1.1～2.6℃,多年平均降水量的变化存在较大不确定性。在不考虑与其他模式差别较大的GFDL-ESM2M条件下,未来地表径流将减少10%～11%。
The projection of surface runoff in the context of climate change is important to the rational utilization and distribution of water resources. This study conducted a case study in Fu River basin. A basin scale hydrological model was built based on macroscale processes of surface runoff and water-energy balance. This model can describe the quantitative relationship among climatic factors, underlying surface and surface runoff. Driven by hypothetical climatic scenarios and climate change dataset provided by CMIP5, the climate change impacts on surface runoff in the Fu River basin can be addressed. The results showed that: 1) Compared with other distributed hydrological models, the hydrological model in this study uses fewer parameters and has simpler calculation methods, which was good at simulating annual surface runoff. 2) The surface runoff was less sensitivity to climate change in the Fu River basin, i.e., the increase of only 1 °C in temperature might result in a surface runoff decrease of 3.6% to 6.3% and a 1% precipitation increase might result in a streamflow increase of 1.7% to 1.9%. 3) The temperature across the Fu River Basin was projected to increase by 1.1 to 2.6℃ from 2020 to 2050, as compared to that from 1961 to 1990. But the uncertainty existed among the projection results of precipitation. The surface runoff was expected to decrease by 10% to 11% without considering the climate change projected by GFDL-ESM2 M, which was much different from those predicted by other GCMs.
The projection of surface runoff in the context of climate change is important to the rational utilization and distribution of water resources. This study conducted a case study in Fu River basin. A basin scale hydrological model was built based on macroscale processes of surface runoff and water-energy balance. This model can describe the quantitative relationship among climatic factors, underlying surface and surface runoff. Driven by hypothetical climatic scenarios and climate change dataset provided by CMIP5, the climate change impacts on surface runoff in the Fu River basin can be addressed. The results showed that: 1) Compared with other distributed hydrological models, the hydrological model in this study uses fewer parameters and has simpler calculation methods, which was good at simulating annual surface runoff. 2) The surface runoff was less sensitivity to climate change in the Fu River basin, i.e., the increase of only 1 °C in temperature might result in a surface runoff decrease of 3.6% to 6.3% and a 1% precipitation increase might result in a streamflow increase of 1.7% to 1.9%. 3) The temperature across the Fu River Basin was projected to increase by 1.1 to 2.6℃ from 2020 to 2050, as compared to that from 1961 to 1990. But the uncertainty existed among the projection results of precipitation. The surface runoff was expected to decrease by 10% to 11% without considering the climate change projected by GFDL-ESM2 M, which was much different from those predicted by other GCMs.
引文
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[17]Budyko M I.Climate and life[M].New York:Academic Press,1974.
[18]Fu Baopu.On the calculation of the evaporation from land surface[J].Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,1981,5(1):23-31.[傅抱璞.论陆面蒸发的计算[J].大气科学,1981,5(1):23-31.]
[19]Zhang L,Hickel K,Dawes W R,et al.A rational function approach for estimating mean annual evapotranspiration[J].Water Resources Research,2004,40:W02502.
[20]Porporato A,Daly E,Rodriguez-Iturbe I.Soil water balance and ecosystem response to climate change[J].The American Naturalist,2004,164(5):625-632.
[21]Sun Fubao.Study on watershed evapotranspiration based on the Budyko hypothesis[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2007.[孙福宝.基于Budyko水热平衡平衡假设的流域蒸散发研究[D].北京:清华大学,2007.]
[22]Yuan Z,Yan D,Yang Z,et al.Projection of surface water resources in the context of climate change in typical regions of China[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2017,62(2):283-293.
[23]Kumar S,Merwade V.Impact of watershed subdivision and soil data resolution on SWAT model calibration and para meter uncertainty[J].Journal of the American Water Re sources Association,2009,45(5):1179-1196.
[24]Wang Guoqing,Zhang Jianyun,Liu Jiufu,et al.The sensitiv ity of runoff to climate change in different climatic region in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2011,22(3):307-314[王国庆,张建云,刘九夫,等.中国不同气候区河川径流对气候变化的敏感性[J].水科学进展,2011,22(3):307-314.]
[25]Chiew F H S.Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2006,51613-625.
[26]Wang Le,Guo Shenglian,Hong Xingjun,et al.Simulation and prediction of future precipitation and runoff change in the Ganjiang basin[J].Journal of Water Resources Research2014,3(6):522-531.[王乐,郭生练,洪兴骏,等.赣江流域未来降雨径流变化模拟预测[J].水资源研究,2014,3(6)522-531.]
[2]Zhang Liping,Chen Xiaofeng,Zhao Zhipeng,et al.Progress in study of climate change impacts on hydrology and water resource[J].Advances in Earth Science,2010,27(3):60-67.[张利平,陈小凤,赵志鹏,等.气候变化对水文水资源影响的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2010,27(3):60-67.]
[3]Narsimlu B,Gosain A K,Chahar B R.Assessment of future climate change impacts on water resources of upper sind river basin,India using SWAT model[J].Water Resources Management,2013,27(10):3647-3662.
[4]Liquete C,Arnau P,Canals M,et al.Mediterranean river systems of Andalusia,southern Spain,and associated deltas:Asource to sink approach[J].Marine Geology,2005,222/223:471-495.
[5]Thompson J R,Green A J,Kingston D G,et al.Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,486:1-30.
[6]Qiao Juan,Zhang Qiang,Zhang Jie.Preliminary summary on parameterization of heterogeneous land surface process and remote sensing technology research[J].Arid Meteorology,2008,26(1):73-77.[乔娟,张强,张杰.非均匀下垫面陆面过程参数化问题研究进展[J].干旱气象,2008,26(1):73-77.]
[7]Xu Zongxue,Cheng Lei.Progress on studies and applications of the distributed hydrological models[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2010,41(9):1009-1017.[徐宗学,程磊.分布式水文模型研究与应用进展[J].水利学报,2010,41(9):1009-1017.]
[8]Deng Xiaoyu,Zhang Qiang,Chen Xiaohong.Assessment of impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff with HSPF for the Fuhe River basin[J].Journal of Wuhan University(Natural Science Edition),2015,61(3):262-270.[邓晓宇,张强,陈晓宏.气候变化和人类活动综合影响下的抚河流域径流模拟研究[J].武汉大学学报(理学版),2015,61(3):262-270.]
[9]Xiao Juncang,Luo Dinggui,Wang Zhongzhong.Soil erosion simulation in Fuhe basin based on SWAT model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(1):14-18.[肖军仓,罗定贵,王忠忠.基于SWAT模型的抚河流域土壤侵蚀模拟[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(1):14-18.]
[10]Piani C,Weedon G P,Best M,et al.Statistical bias correction of global simulated daily precipitation and temperature for the application of hydrological models[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,395(3/4):199-215.
[11]Hagemann S,Chen C,Haerter J O,et al.Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2011,12(4):556-578.
[12]Warszawski L,Frieler K,Huber V,et al.The inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project(ISI-MIP):Project framework[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2014,111(9):3228-3232.
[13]Schreiber P.über die Beziehungen zwischen dem Niederschlag und der Wasserführung der Flüsse in Mitteleuropa[J].Zeitschrift für Meteorologie,1904,21(10):441-452.
[14]Ol’Dekop E M.On evaporation from the surface of river basins[J].Transactions on Meteorological Observations,1911,4:200.
[15]Turc L.Le bilan d’eau des sols:Relations entre les précipitations,l’évaporation et l’écoulement[D].Paris:Institute National de la Recherche Agronomique,1953.
[16]Pike J G.The estimation of annual run-off from meteorological data in a tropical climate[J].Journal of Hydrology,1964,2(2):116-123.
[17]Budyko M I.Climate and life[M].New York:Academic Press,1974.
[18]Fu Baopu.On the calculation of the evaporation from land surface[J].Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,1981,5(1):23-31.[傅抱璞.论陆面蒸发的计算[J].大气科学,1981,5(1):23-31.]
[19]Zhang L,Hickel K,Dawes W R,et al.A rational function approach for estimating mean annual evapotranspiration[J].Water Resources Research,2004,40:W02502.
[20]Porporato A,Daly E,Rodriguez-Iturbe I.Soil water balance and ecosystem response to climate change[J].The American Naturalist,2004,164(5):625-632.
[21]Sun Fubao.Study on watershed evapotranspiration based on the Budyko hypothesis[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2007.[孙福宝.基于Budyko水热平衡平衡假设的流域蒸散发研究[D].北京:清华大学,2007.]
[22]Yuan Z,Yan D,Yang Z,et al.Projection of surface water resources in the context of climate change in typical regions of China[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2017,62(2):283-293.
[23]Kumar S,Merwade V.Impact of watershed subdivision and soil data resolution on SWAT model calibration and para meter uncertainty[J].Journal of the American Water Re sources Association,2009,45(5):1179-1196.
[24]Wang Guoqing,Zhang Jianyun,Liu Jiufu,et al.The sensitiv ity of runoff to climate change in different climatic region in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2011,22(3):307-314[王国庆,张建云,刘九夫,等.中国不同气候区河川径流对气候变化的敏感性[J].水科学进展,2011,22(3):307-314.]
[25]Chiew F H S.Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2006,51613-625.
[26]Wang Le,Guo Shenglian,Hong Xingjun,et al.Simulation and prediction of future precipitation and runoff change in the Ganjiang basin[J].Journal of Water Resources Research2014,3(6):522-531.[王乐,郭生练,洪兴骏,等.赣江流域未来降雨径流变化模拟预测[J].水资源研究,2014,3(6)522-531.]
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