摘要
构建了递归动态CGE模型,设计并模拟了基情情景、节能情景和强节能情景等不同碳减排政策对我国经济的影响,包括对宏观经济变量、产业部门的能源消费和产出、能源部门的碳税额和能源消费结构的影响。研究发现:碳税征收可以降低产业部门对高碳能源的消费,提高低碳能源和可再生能源的消费比重,通过市场机制完成对能源结构的优化,同时会对宏观经济造成不利影响。最后提出了相关政策建议,即应尽量寻求碳减排、能源结构优化与经济增长三者之间的平衡。
This paper builds the recursive dynamic CGE model.It designs and simulates the influences of different carbon emission reduction policies,such as benchmark scenario,energy saving scenario and strong energy saving scenario on China's economy,including the influences on macroeconomic variables,energy consumption and output of industrial sectors,carbon tax of energy sector and energy consumption structure.It finds that a carbon tax levy could reduce the industry department of high carbon energy consumption and increase the share of low carbon energy and renewable energy,and complete the optimization of energy structure through the market mechanism to,and cause adverse effect on macro economy.Finally,it suggests to seek carbon energy structure optimization and the balance between economic growth.
引文
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