长三角地区重点源减排对PM_(2.5)浓度的影响
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摘要
应用中尺度天气-化学预报模式(WRF-Chem),基于重点源(八大重点行业与交通)一般与强化两组减排情景,针对2013年开展长三角地区重点源减排对PM_(2.5)浓度影响的模拟研究.长三角地区SO2、NOx、PM_(2.5)和NMVOC排放在一般减排情景下分别减少36.3%、26.3%、32.0%、14.6%,强化减排情景下分别减少51.4%、39.6%、37.6%、28.4%.模拟结果表明,两组减排情景下长三角地区国控点PM_(2.5)年均浓度分别下降1.4~26.7μg·m~(-3)和2.1~32.3μg·m~(-3),降幅分别为2.7%~23.1%和3.9%~27.5%,二次无机盐中硝酸盐对年均PM_(2.5)浓度的降低贡献最大.PM_(2.5)及二次无机盐浓度变化的季节特征均体现为冬季降幅最小,夏季降幅最大,并且随着减排力度的增强,夏季降幅的进一步降低程度最显著,导致削减效果的季节差异增大.重点源强化减排即可使得上海、江苏夏季PM_(2.5)浓度降低约20%.对大气氧化性的进一步分析表明,减排对四季大气氧化性均有不同程度的增强,加大减排力度后,大气氧化性进一步增强,有利于二次PM_(2.5)的生成,从而阻碍了PM_(2.5)浓度的降低.其中,冬季的阻碍作用最强,导致PM_(2.5)污染改善效果最差.夏季大气氧化性受减排影响较小,从而使得PM_(2.5)污染改善在四季中最有效.此外,春、秋季的阻碍作用也不容忽视.
The effects of emission reductions of key sources(eight key industries and transportation) on the PM_(2.5) concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) were investigated using the weather research forecast-chemistry(WRF-Chem) model in 2013 combined with two normal and enhanced emission reduction scenarios.The SO2,NOx,PM_(2.5),and NMVOC emissions in the YRD decrease by36.3%,26.3%,32.0%,and 14.6% and by 51.4%,39.6%,37.6%,and 28.4% under the normal and enhanced emission reduction scenarios,respectively.The simulation results show that the annual mean PM_(2.5) concentrations over the national environmental monitoring sites in the YRD decline by 1.4-26.7 μg·m~(-3) and 2.1-32.3 μg·m~(-3),reflecting a decrease of 2.7%-23.1% and 3.9%-27.5%,under the two emission reduction scenarios,respectively.The nitrate in secondary inorganic aerosols contributes the most to the reduction of the annual mean PM_(2.5) concentration.The seasonal variation characteristics of the PM_(2.5) and secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations reflect that the smallest and largest declining rates occur in winter and summer,respectively.With increasing emission reduction,the declining rates of PM_(2.5) and the secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations in summer increase more compared with those in other seasons,resulting in a greater seasonal variation of the rates.The PM_(2.5) concentrations decrease by~ 20% in Shanghai and the Jiangsu Province under the enhanced emission scenario in summer.The analysis of the atmospheric oxidation shows that the atmospheric oxidation capacity is enhanced to different degrees by emission reductions of key sources in all seasons;it is further enhanced with increasing emission reduction.The enhanced oxidation capacity favors the formation of secondary PM_(2.5),thereby hindering the reduction of the PM_(2.5) concentration.The strongest hindrance occurs in winter,resulting in the worst PM_(2.5) pollution improvement.The atmospheric oxidation capacity is less affected by emission reductions of key sources in summer,making PM_(2.5) pollution improvement most effective.Furthermore,the negative effects of the enhancement of the atmospheric oxidation capacity on the reduction of the PM_(2.5) concentration in spring and autumn cannot be ignored.
The effects of emission reductions of key sources(eight key industries and transportation) on the PM_(2.5) concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) were investigated using the weather research forecast-chemistry(WRF-Chem) model in 2013 combined with two normal and enhanced emission reduction scenarios.The SO2,NOx,PM_(2.5),and NMVOC emissions in the YRD decrease by36.3%,26.3%,32.0%,and 14.6% and by 51.4%,39.6%,37.6%,and 28.4% under the normal and enhanced emission reduction scenarios,respectively.The simulation results show that the annual mean PM_(2.5) concentrations over the national environmental monitoring sites in the YRD decline by 1.4-26.7 μg·m~(-3) and 2.1-32.3 μg·m~(-3),reflecting a decrease of 2.7%-23.1% and 3.9%-27.5%,under the two emission reduction scenarios,respectively.The nitrate in secondary inorganic aerosols contributes the most to the reduction of the annual mean PM_(2.5) concentration.The seasonal variation characteristics of the PM_(2.5) and secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations reflect that the smallest and largest declining rates occur in winter and summer,respectively.With increasing emission reduction,the declining rates of PM_(2.5) and the secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations in summer increase more compared with those in other seasons,resulting in a greater seasonal variation of the rates.The PM_(2.5) concentrations decrease by~ 20% in Shanghai and the Jiangsu Province under the enhanced emission scenario in summer.The analysis of the atmospheric oxidation shows that the atmospheric oxidation capacity is enhanced to different degrees by emission reductions of key sources in all seasons;it is further enhanced with increasing emission reduction.The enhanced oxidation capacity favors the formation of secondary PM_(2.5),thereby hindering the reduction of the PM_(2.5) concentration.The strongest hindrance occurs in winter,resulting in the worst PM_(2.5) pollution improvement.The atmospheric oxidation capacity is less affected by emission reductions of key sources in summer,making PM_(2.5) pollution improvement most effective.Furthermore,the negative effects of the enhancement of the atmospheric oxidation capacity on the reduction of the PM_(2.5) concentration in spring and autumn cannot be ignored.
引文
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[22]高怡,张美根.2013年1月华北地区重雾霾过程及其成因的模拟分析[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(2):140-152.Gao Y,Zhang M G.Numerical simulation of a heavy fog-haze episode over the North China Plain in January 2013[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2014,19(2):140-152.
[23]于燕,廖礼,崔雪东,等.不同人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响:以浙江省为例[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(5):519-537.Yu Y,Liao L,Cui X D,et al.Effects of different anthropogenic emission inventories on simulated air pollutants concentrations:a case study in Zhejiang Province[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2017,22(5):519-537.
[24]Wang H L,Zhu B,Shen L J,et al.Water-soluble ions in atmospheric aerosols measured in five sites in the Yangtze River Delta,China:size-fractionated,seasonal variations and sources[J].Atmospheric Environment,2015,123:370-379.
[25]Wang H L,Zhu B,Shen L J,et al.Regional characteristics of air pollutants during heavy haze events in the Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Aerosol and Air Quality Research,2016,16(9):2159-2171.
[26]Janssens-Maenhout G,Crippa M,Guizzardi D,et al.HTAP_v2.2:a mosaic of regional and global emission grid maps for2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2015,15(19):11411-11432.
[27]U.S.EPA.Guidance on the use of Models and other analyses for demonstrating attainment of air quality goals of Ozone,PM2.5,and regional haze[R].Research Triangle Park,NC:Office of Air and Radiation/Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,2007.
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[29]Huang X,Song Y,Zhao C,et al.Pathways of sulfate enhancement by natural and anthropogenic mineral aerosols in China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2014,119(24):14165-14179.
[30]Wang S X,Xing J,Jang C,et al.Impact assessment of ammonia emissions on inorganic aerosols in East China using response surface modeling technique[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2011,45(21):9293-9300.
[2]Jiang C,Wang H,Zhao T,et al.Modeling study of PM2.5pollutant transport across cities in China's Jing-Jin-Ji region during a severe haze episode in December 2013[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2015,15(10):5803-5814.
[3]Zhang X Y,Wang Y Q,Niu T,et al.Atmospheric aerosol compositions in China:spatial/temporal variability,chemical signature,regional haze distribution and comparisons with global aerosols[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2012,12(2):779-799.
[4]Zhao B,Wang S X,Wang J D,et al.Impact of national NOx and SO2control policies on particulate matter pollution in China[J].Atmospheric Environment,2013,77:453-463.
[5]Wang S X,Hao J M.Air quality management in China:Issues,challenges,and options[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2012,24(1):2-13.
[6]Wang S X,Xing J,Zhao B,et al.Effectiveness of national air pollution control policies on the air quality in metropolitan areas of China[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2014,26(1):13-22.
[7]刘红年,胡荣章,张美根.城市灰霾数值预报模式的建立与应用[J].环境科学研究,2009,22(6):631-636.Liu H N,Hu R Z,Zhang M G.Development and application of urban haze numerical forecast model[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2009,22(6):631-636.
[8]戴昭鑫,张云芝,胡云锋,等.基于地面监测数据的2013~2015年长三角地区PM2.5时空特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(5):813-821.Dai Z X,Zhang Y Z,Hu Y F,et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics of PM2.5in Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region based on the ground monitoring data from 2013-2015[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2016,25(5):813-821.
[9]Wang L T,Jang C,Zhang Y,et al.Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China.PartⅡ:Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment[J].Atmospheric Environment,2010,44(28):3449-3457.
[10]Zhao B,Wang S X,Dong X Y,et al.Environmental effects of the recent emission changes in China:implications for particulate matter pollution and soil acidification[J].Environmental Research Letters,2013,8(2):024031.
[11]Dong X Y,Li J,Fu J S,et al.Inorganic aerosols responses to emission changes in Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2014,481:522-532.
[12]Wang L T,Zhang Y,Wang K,et al.Application of weather research and forecasting model with chemistry(WRF/Chem)over northern China:Sensitivity study,comparative evaluation,and policy implications[J].Atmospheric Environment,2016,124:337-350.
[13]孟宁,贝耐芳,李国辉,等.关中地区冬季人为源减排对PM2.5浓度的影响[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(5):1646-1656.Meng N,Bei N F,Li G H,et al.Response of the wintertime PM2.5level to anthropogenic emission mitigations in the Guanzhong basin[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(5):1646-1656.
[14]吴文景,常兴,邢佳,等.京津冀地区主要排放源减排对PM2.5污染改善贡献评估[J].环境科学,2017,38(3):867-875.Wu W J,Chang X,Xing J,et al.Assessment of PM2.5pollution mitigation due to emission reduction from main emission sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(3):867-875.
[15]贺克斌,张强,洪朝鹏,等.京津冀能否实现2017年PM2.5改善目标?基于“大气国十条”的京津冀地区细颗粒物污染防治政策效果评估[EB/OL].http://www.efchina.org/Reports-zh/report-cemp-20140924-zh,2014-09-24.
[16]Cai S Y,Wang Y J,Zhao B,et al.The impact of the“Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan”on PM2.5concentrations in Jing-Jin-Ji region during 2012-2020[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,580:197-209.
[17]李莉,安静宇,卢清.清洁空气行动计划实施对长三角地区PM2.5污染改善效果模拟评估[J].环境科学研究,2015,28(11):1653-1661.Li L,An J Y,Lu Q.Modeling assessment of PM2.5concentrations under implementation of clean air action plan in the Yangtze River Delta region[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2015,28(11):1653-1661.
[18]Li L,Chen C H,Fu J S,et al.Air quality and emissions in the Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2011,11(4):1621-1639.
[19]Grell G A,Peckham S E,Schmitz R,et al.Fully coupled“online”chemistry within the WRF model[J].Atmospheric Environment,2005,39(37):6957-6975.
[20]Wang X Y,Liang X Z,Jiang W M,et al.WRF-Chem simulation of East Asian air quality:sensitivity to temporal and vertical emissions distributions[J].Atmospheric Environment,2010,44(5):660-669.
[21]庞杨,韩志伟,朱彬,等.利用WRF-Chem模拟研究京津冀地区夏季大气污染物的分布和演变[J].大气科学学报,2013,36(6):674-682.Pang Y,Han Z W,Zhu B,et al.A model study on distribution and evolution of atmospheric pollutants over Beijing-TianjinHebei region in summertime with WRF-Chem[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,36(6):674-682.
[22]高怡,张美根.2013年1月华北地区重雾霾过程及其成因的模拟分析[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(2):140-152.Gao Y,Zhang M G.Numerical simulation of a heavy fog-haze episode over the North China Plain in January 2013[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2014,19(2):140-152.
[23]于燕,廖礼,崔雪东,等.不同人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响:以浙江省为例[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(5):519-537.Yu Y,Liao L,Cui X D,et al.Effects of different anthropogenic emission inventories on simulated air pollutants concentrations:a case study in Zhejiang Province[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2017,22(5):519-537.
[24]Wang H L,Zhu B,Shen L J,et al.Water-soluble ions in atmospheric aerosols measured in five sites in the Yangtze River Delta,China:size-fractionated,seasonal variations and sources[J].Atmospheric Environment,2015,123:370-379.
[25]Wang H L,Zhu B,Shen L J,et al.Regional characteristics of air pollutants during heavy haze events in the Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Aerosol and Air Quality Research,2016,16(9):2159-2171.
[26]Janssens-Maenhout G,Crippa M,Guizzardi D,et al.HTAP_v2.2:a mosaic of regional and global emission grid maps for2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2015,15(19):11411-11432.
[27]U.S.EPA.Guidance on the use of Models and other analyses for demonstrating attainment of air quality goals of Ozone,PM2.5,and regional haze[R].Research Triangle Park,NC:Office of Air and Radiation/Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,2007.
[28]Morris R E,Koo B,Mc Nally D,et al.Application of multiple models to simulation fine particulate in the southeastern US[A].Presented at the National Regional Planning Organization Modeling Meeting[C].Denver CO,USA,2004.
[29]Huang X,Song Y,Zhao C,et al.Pathways of sulfate enhancement by natural and anthropogenic mineral aerosols in China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2014,119(24):14165-14179.
[30]Wang S X,Xing J,Jang C,et al.Impact assessment of ammonia emissions on inorganic aerosols in East China using response surface modeling technique[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2011,45(21):9293-9300.
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