考虑电能替代的全球负荷变化趋势分析
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摘要
为调和全球范围内各国所倡导的可持续发展与消费型社会增长之间的冲突,中国率先提出全球能源互联网战略。电能替代作为该战略中能源消费发展方向,通过优化调整终端能源消费结构推动经济发展低碳转型。为确定终端能源消费中电能替代的增长区间与中长期负荷特性,总结了电能替代负荷增长的驱动因素,建立了计及电能替代弹性特征的最优电能替代负荷模型,提出了低碳及经济约束下电能替代边界的量化评估方法,分析比较了区域互联系统的短期电力负荷特性。最后通过构建高、低边界场景对未来全球能源互联背景下主要国家和地区的电能替代趋势进行预判。
In order to reconcile the conflicts between sustainable development and consumer society growth, China takes lead in putting forward global energy interconnection(GEI) strategy. As a direction of energy consumption in this strategy, electricity substitution can optimize consumption structure of end-users to promote low carbon transformation of economic development. To measure electrical energy substitution load growth interval, key driving factors are summarized to describe electricity substitution effect. By establishing an optimal electricity substitution power load model within constraint low carbon economy, load characteristics are analyzed in global interconnection system. Finally, through high and low boundary scenarios of electricity substitution, the future trend of energy substitution in main countries and regions under GEI background is anticipated.
In order to reconcile the conflicts between sustainable development and consumer society growth, China takes lead in putting forward global energy interconnection(GEI) strategy. As a direction of energy consumption in this strategy, electricity substitution can optimize consumption structure of end-users to promote low carbon transformation of economic development. To measure electrical energy substitution load growth interval, key driving factors are summarized to describe electricity substitution effect. By establishing an optimal electricity substitution power load model within constraint low carbon economy, load characteristics are analyzed in global interconnection system. Finally, through high and low boundary scenarios of electricity substitution, the future trend of energy substitution in main countries and regions under GEI background is anticipated.
引文
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[5]程红平.推进清洁替代,就地消纳新能源[N].国家电网报,2015-12-04(2).
[6]单葆国,赵佳,贾德香,等.基于STIRPAT-岭回归的电能替代潜力分析方法[J].供用电,2018,35(1):68-73.Shan Baoguo,Zhao Jia,Jia Dexiang,et al.Electric power substitution potential analysis method based on STIRPAT-ridge regression[J].Distribution&Utilization,2018,35(1):68-73(in Chinese).
[7]孙毅,石墨,单葆国,等.基于粒子群优化支持向量机的电能替代潜力分析方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(6):1767-1771.Sun Yi,Shi Mo,Shan Baoguo,et al.Electric energy substitution potential analysis method based on particle swarm optimization support vector machine[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(6):1767-1771(in Chinese).
[8]国家发改委,国家能源局.能源发展“十三五”规划[Z].2016-12-26.
[9]全球能源互联网发展合作组织.全球能源互联网发展报告[EB/OL].(2016-03-31)[2016-04-10].http://www.geidco.org/.
[10]IEA.Energy technology perspectives 2017[EB/OL].[2018-03-12].http://www.iea.org/etp/explore.
[11]IEA.World energy model 2017[EB/OL].[2017-07-01].https://www.iea.org/weo/weomodel/.
[12]Wang M Q.Development and use of GREET 1.6 Fuel-cycle models for transportation fuels and vehicle technologies[R].U S:Centre for Transportation Research of Energy Systems Division of Argonne National Laboratory,2001.
[13]李宏刚.多种车用能源与车辆的油井到车轮(WTW)评价研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2006.
[14]孙毅,周爽,单葆国,等.多情景下的电能替代潜力分析[J].电网技术,2017,41(1):118-123.Sun Yi,Zhou Shuang,Shan Baoguo,et al.Analysis of electric power alternative potential under multi-scenario[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(1):118-123(in Chinese).
[15]IEA.Key world energy statistics 2017[EB/OL].(2017-09-25)[2017-12-03].https://webstore.iea.org/key-world-energy-statistics-2017.
[16]EIA.(2017a)annual energy outlook 2017[R].Washington,DC:U.S.Energy Information Administration.
[17]ENTSOE.Ten year network development plan 2016[EB/OL].[2016-12-20].http://tyndp.entsoe/eu/.
[18]World Bank.GDP PPP(constant 2011 international$)2017[EB/OL].(2017-05-22)[2017-05-30].https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD.
[19]范成礼,邢清华,付强,等.求解非线性双层规划问题的混合变邻域粒子群算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(2):473-480.Fan Chengli,Xie Qinghua,Fu Qiang,et al.A hybrid intelligent algorithm by combining particle swarm optimization with variable neighbourhood search for solving nonlinear bilevel programming problems[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2015,35(2):473-480(in Chinese).
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