组织学习与企业预测能力——基于组织注意力视角
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摘要
企业做出战略决策很大程度上依赖于其预测能力。本文从组织注意力的视角切入,提出企业预测能力的影响机制,基于对组织注意力结构维度的分析,收集284名管理者的问卷数据,运用了因子分析、结构方程模型和调节效应模型,探讨了组织注意力对组织学习与企业预测能力关系的中介作用及其控制错觉和过度自信的调节影响。研究结果表明,组织注意力是一个包括关注、编码、解释和聚焦四个维度的过程;组织学习能使企业获取注意力的资源,但只有通过组织注意力才能提升企业预测能力;高度的过度自信将抑制企业的组织注意力对环境预测准确性的积极作用,而控制错觉并不产生显著的影响。
In a highly uncertain and turbulent environment,corporate strategic decision-making is largely dependent on its forecasting ability. Whether an enterprise can predict the environment in advance,the learning ability must be considered seriously.However,not all the information of environmental stimulus can be clearly conveyed to the organization. Therefore,corporations need to spend a lot of time and energy to scan the organizational environment to perceive the stimulus of opportunities or threats,complete the noticing,encoding,interpreting and focusing,and generate organizational attention ultimately. Based on the analysis of the construct of organizational attention,this study first explores the influence of organizational learning on firm's forecasting ability and organizational attention,then explores the mediating role of organizational attention between organizational learning and firm's forecasting ability,and finally explores the moderate effect of illusion of control and overconfidence.To test hypotheses,we selected 284 managers from 500 corporations in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Wuhan and Shiyan. In order to improve the quality and validity of data collection,we have invested a lot of time and energy in the design of questionnaires. Firstly,we carried out a lot of literature research. Secondly,we conducted in-depth interviews. Thirdly,we sought advice from scholars. Finally,we conducted a small range of test and then an overall questionnaire was issued. The whole data collection took us half a year. We used factor analysis,structural equation model and moderated effect model to test hypotheses. The empirical results showed that:( 1) Organizational attention consists of four dimensions: noticing,encoding,interpreting and focusing.( 2) Organizational learning is positively related to firm's forecasting ability.( 3) Organizational learning is positively related to organizational attention.( 4) Organizational learning has an indirect effect on firm's forecasting ability via organizational attention.( 5) Overconfidence moderates the relationship between organizational attention and firm's forecasting ability negatively,however the moderate effect of illusion of control is not significant.The present research makes several contributions to organizational attention literature and practice. In terms of theoretical contributions,this research proves that the division of four dimensions of organizational attention is operable and it is pointed out that learning orientation cannot directly promote the improvement of firm's forecasting ability and it must be achieved by organizational attention. It lays a theoretical foundation for future research on organizational attention. In terms of the practical implications,this research suggests that in organizational learning,corporations must realize that shaping organizational attention is the key to the efficient application of organizational learning. They also should avoid illusion of control and overconfidence,and improve the accuracy of environmental forecasting through rational thinking.
In a highly uncertain and turbulent environment,corporate strategic decision-making is largely dependent on its forecasting ability. Whether an enterprise can predict the environment in advance,the learning ability must be considered seriously.However,not all the information of environmental stimulus can be clearly conveyed to the organization. Therefore,corporations need to spend a lot of time and energy to scan the organizational environment to perceive the stimulus of opportunities or threats,complete the noticing,encoding,interpreting and focusing,and generate organizational attention ultimately. Based on the analysis of the construct of organizational attention,this study first explores the influence of organizational learning on firm's forecasting ability and organizational attention,then explores the mediating role of organizational attention between organizational learning and firm's forecasting ability,and finally explores the moderate effect of illusion of control and overconfidence.To test hypotheses,we selected 284 managers from 500 corporations in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Wuhan and Shiyan. In order to improve the quality and validity of data collection,we have invested a lot of time and energy in the design of questionnaires. Firstly,we carried out a lot of literature research. Secondly,we conducted in-depth interviews. Thirdly,we sought advice from scholars. Finally,we conducted a small range of test and then an overall questionnaire was issued. The whole data collection took us half a year. We used factor analysis,structural equation model and moderated effect model to test hypotheses. The empirical results showed that:( 1) Organizational attention consists of four dimensions: noticing,encoding,interpreting and focusing.( 2) Organizational learning is positively related to firm's forecasting ability.( 3) Organizational learning is positively related to organizational attention.( 4) Organizational learning has an indirect effect on firm's forecasting ability via organizational attention.( 5) Overconfidence moderates the relationship between organizational attention and firm's forecasting ability negatively,however the moderate effect of illusion of control is not significant.The present research makes several contributions to organizational attention literature and practice. In terms of theoretical contributions,this research proves that the division of four dimensions of organizational attention is operable and it is pointed out that learning orientation cannot directly promote the improvement of firm's forecasting ability and it must be achieved by organizational attention. It lays a theoretical foundation for future research on organizational attention. In terms of the practical implications,this research suggests that in organizational learning,corporations must realize that shaping organizational attention is the key to the efficient application of organizational learning. They also should avoid illusion of control and overconfidence,and improve the accuracy of environmental forecasting through rational thinking.
引文
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[2]徐蕾,魏江,石俊娜.双重社会资本、组织学习与突破式创新关系研究[J].科研管理,2013,34(5):39-45.Xu Lei,Wei Jiang,Shi Junna. Dual social capital,organizational learning,and penetrative innovation relationship[J].Science Research Management,2013,34(5):39-45.
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[4] Desai V. Learning through the distribution of failures within an organization:Evidence from heart bypass surgery performance[J]. Academy of Management Journal,2015,58(4):1032-1050.
[5] Feng T,Zhao G,Su K. The fit between environmental management systems and organisational learning orientation[J].International Journal of Production Research,2014,52(10):2901-2914.
[6]吴建祖,李英博.感知的创业环境对中层管理者内部创业行为的影响研究[J].管理学报,2015,12(1):111-117.Wu Jianzu,Li Yingbo. Perceived entrepreneurial environment and middle managers’ entrepreneurial behavior:Mediating role of entrepreneurial self-efficacy[J]. Chinese Journal of Management,2015,12(1):111-117.
[7] Durand,R. Predicting a firm’s forecasting ability:The roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2003,24(9):821-838.
[8] Ocasio W. Towards an attention-based view of the firm[J].Strategic Management Journal,1997,18:187-206.
[9]吴建祖,关斌.高管团队特征对企业国际市场进入模式的影响研究——注意力的中介作用[J].管理评论,2015,27(11):118-130.Wu Jianzu,Guan Bin. The effect of top management team characteristics on international market entry mode:The mediating role of attention[J]. Management Review,2015,27(11):118-130.
[10] Barreto,I.,Patient,D. Toward a theory of intraorganizational attention based on desirability and feasibility factors[J].Strategic Management Journal,2013,34(6):687-703.
[11] Dutton,J. E.,Jackson,S. E. Categorizing strategic issues:Linksto organizational action[J]. Academy of Management Review,1987,12(1):76-90.
[12]刘景江,王文星.管理者注意力研究:一个最新综述[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2014,44(2):78-84.Liu Jingjiang,Wang Wenxing. Research on managerial atten-tion:A state of the art review[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University(Humanities and Social Sciences),2014,44(2):78-84.
[13] Kohli,A. K.,Jaworski,B. J. Market orientation:The construct,research propositions, and managerial implications[J]. Journal of Marketing,1990,54:90-113.
[14] Baumard,P. From noticing to making sense:Using intelligence to develop strategy[J]. International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence,1994,07(1):29-73.
[15] Morrison,J. B. The right shock to initiate change:A sense making perspective[C]. Academy Management Proceeding,2002:F1-F6.
[16] Titchener,E. B. Lectures on the elementary psychology of feeling and attention[M]. New York:Mac Millan Co,1908.
[17] Ramaprasad,A.,Poon,E. A computerized interactive technique for mapping influence diagrams(mind)[J]. Strategic Management Journal,1985,06(4):377-392.
[18] Milliken,F. J.,Dutton,J. E.,Beyer,J. M. Understanding organizational adaptation to change:The case of workfamily issues[J]. Human Resource Planning,1992,13(2):91-107.
[19] Karau,S. J.,Kelly,J. R. Time pressure and team performance:An attentional focus integration[J]. Research on Managing Groups and Teams,2003,06:185-212.
[20] Busse C,Wallenburg C M. Firm-level innovation management at logistics service providers:An exploration[J]. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications,2014,17(5):396-419.
[21] Cepeda,G.,Vera,D. Dynamic capabilities and operational capabilities:A knowledge management perspective[J]. Journal of Business Research,2007,60(3):426-437.
[22] Fiske,S. T.,Taylor,S. E. Social cognition[M]. Reading,MA:Addison-Wesley,1984.
[23]王永伟,马洁,吴湘繁,刘胜春.变革型领导行为、组织学习倾向与组织惯例更新的关系研究[J].管理世界,2012(9):110-119.Wang Yongwei, Ma Jie, Wu Xiangfan, Liu Shengchun.Transformational leadership behavior,organizational learning and organizational practices tendency updated relationship[J]. Management World,2012(9):110-119.
[24]李柏洲,赵健宇,苏屹.基于能级跃迁的组织学习—知识创造过程动态模型研究[J].科学学研究,2013,31(6):913-922.Li Baizhou,Zhao Jianyu,Su Yi. Research on dynamic model of"organizational learning—Knowledge creation"process based on level transition[J]. Studies in Science of Science,2013,31(6):913-922.
[25] Huber, G. P. Organizational learning:The contributing processes and the literatures[J]. Organization Science,1991,2(1):88-115.
[26] Berson Y,Da’as R,Waldman D A. How do leaders and their teams bring about organizational learning and outcomes?[J]. Personnel Psychology,2015,68(1):79-108.
[27]张辉,汪涛,刘洪深.顾客参与了为何仍不满意——顾客参与过程中控制错觉与顾客满意的关系研究[J].南开管理评论,2011,14(5):153-160.Zhang Hui,Wang Tao,Liu Hongshen. Why participated customers still dissatisfied research on the relationship between the Illusion of control and customer satisfaction in customer participation[J]. Nankai Business Review,2011,14(5):153-160.
[28]侯丽.“控制错觉”增大投资风险[N].中国社会科学报,2015-04-01(A03).Hou Li."Illusion of control"increases investment risk[N].China Social Science Daily,2015-04-01(A03).
[29]余明桂,李文贵,潘红波.管理者过度自信与企业风险承担[J].金融研究,2013,391(1):149-162.Yu Minggui,Li Wengui,Pan Hongbo. Managerial overconfidence and corporate risk taking[J]. Journal of Financial Research,2013,391(1):149-162.
[30] Larrick,R. P.,Burson K. A.,Soll J. B. Social comparison and confidence:When thinking you’re better than average predicts overconfidence(and when it does not)[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,2007,102(1):76-94.
[31] Van Zant A B,Moore D A. Avoiding the pitfalls of overconfidence while benefiting from the advantages of confidence[J].California Management Review,2013,55(2):05-23.
[32] Cain D M,Moore D A,Haran U. Making sense of overconfidence in market entry[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2015,36(1):01-18.
[33] Simon,H A. Administrative behavior:A study of decisionmaking processes in administrative organization[M]. New York:Free Press,1947.
[34] Sinkula J M,Baker W E,Noordewier T. A framework for market-based organizational learning:Linking values,knowledge,and behavior[J]. Journal of the academy of Marketing Science,1997,25(4):305-318.
[35]谢洪明,刘常勇,陈春辉.市场导向与组织绩效的关系:组织学习与创新的影响——珠三角地区企业的实证研究[J].管理世界,2006(2):80-94.Xie Hongming,Liu Changyong,Chen Chunhui. The relationship between being market-oriented and organizational performance:Organizational the learning effect of and innovation—A case study of the enterprises in the pearl river delta region[J]. Management World,2006(2):80-94.
[36] Simon M,Houghton S M,Aquino K. Cognitive biases,risk perception,and venture formation:How individuals decide to start companies[J]. Journal of Business Venturing,2000,15(2):113-134.
[37]江晓东.市场调研实验的SPSS操作教程[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2014:161.Jiang Xiaodong. SPSS operating tutorial of market research experiment[M]. Shanghai:Shanghai Finance University Press,2014:161.
[38]黄晓治,孔庆民.管理学的实证研究方法入门[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2014:138.Huang Xiaozhi,Kong Qingmin. Empirical research methods of management[M]. Beijing:Mechanical Industry Press,2014:138.
[39] Baron,R. M.,Kenny,D. A. The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research:Conceptual,strategic,and statistical considerations[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1986,51(6):1173-1182.
[40] Edwards,J. R.,Lambert,L. S. Methods for integrating moderation and mediation:A general analytical framework using moderated path analysis[J]. Psychological Methods,2007,12(1):01-22.
[2]徐蕾,魏江,石俊娜.双重社会资本、组织学习与突破式创新关系研究[J].科研管理,2013,34(5):39-45.Xu Lei,Wei Jiang,Shi Junna. Dual social capital,organizational learning,and penetrative innovation relationship[J].Science Research Management,2013,34(5):39-45.
[3] Argyris,C.,Schon,D. Organizational learning:A theory of action perspective[M]. Reading,MA:Addison Wesley,1978.
[4] Desai V. Learning through the distribution of failures within an organization:Evidence from heart bypass surgery performance[J]. Academy of Management Journal,2015,58(4):1032-1050.
[5] Feng T,Zhao G,Su K. The fit between environmental management systems and organisational learning orientation[J].International Journal of Production Research,2014,52(10):2901-2914.
[6]吴建祖,李英博.感知的创业环境对中层管理者内部创业行为的影响研究[J].管理学报,2015,12(1):111-117.Wu Jianzu,Li Yingbo. Perceived entrepreneurial environment and middle managers’ entrepreneurial behavior:Mediating role of entrepreneurial self-efficacy[J]. Chinese Journal of Management,2015,12(1):111-117.
[7] Durand,R. Predicting a firm’s forecasting ability:The roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2003,24(9):821-838.
[8] Ocasio W. Towards an attention-based view of the firm[J].Strategic Management Journal,1997,18:187-206.
[9]吴建祖,关斌.高管团队特征对企业国际市场进入模式的影响研究——注意力的中介作用[J].管理评论,2015,27(11):118-130.Wu Jianzu,Guan Bin. The effect of top management team characteristics on international market entry mode:The mediating role of attention[J]. Management Review,2015,27(11):118-130.
[10] Barreto,I.,Patient,D. Toward a theory of intraorganizational attention based on desirability and feasibility factors[J].Strategic Management Journal,2013,34(6):687-703.
[11] Dutton,J. E.,Jackson,S. E. Categorizing strategic issues:Linksto organizational action[J]. Academy of Management Review,1987,12(1):76-90.
[12]刘景江,王文星.管理者注意力研究:一个最新综述[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2014,44(2):78-84.Liu Jingjiang,Wang Wenxing. Research on managerial atten-tion:A state of the art review[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University(Humanities and Social Sciences),2014,44(2):78-84.
[13] Kohli,A. K.,Jaworski,B. J. Market orientation:The construct,research propositions, and managerial implications[J]. Journal of Marketing,1990,54:90-113.
[14] Baumard,P. From noticing to making sense:Using intelligence to develop strategy[J]. International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence,1994,07(1):29-73.
[15] Morrison,J. B. The right shock to initiate change:A sense making perspective[C]. Academy Management Proceeding,2002:F1-F6.
[16] Titchener,E. B. Lectures on the elementary psychology of feeling and attention[M]. New York:Mac Millan Co,1908.
[17] Ramaprasad,A.,Poon,E. A computerized interactive technique for mapping influence diagrams(mind)[J]. Strategic Management Journal,1985,06(4):377-392.
[18] Milliken,F. J.,Dutton,J. E.,Beyer,J. M. Understanding organizational adaptation to change:The case of workfamily issues[J]. Human Resource Planning,1992,13(2):91-107.
[19] Karau,S. J.,Kelly,J. R. Time pressure and team performance:An attentional focus integration[J]. Research on Managing Groups and Teams,2003,06:185-212.
[20] Busse C,Wallenburg C M. Firm-level innovation management at logistics service providers:An exploration[J]. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications,2014,17(5):396-419.
[21] Cepeda,G.,Vera,D. Dynamic capabilities and operational capabilities:A knowledge management perspective[J]. Journal of Business Research,2007,60(3):426-437.
[22] Fiske,S. T.,Taylor,S. E. Social cognition[M]. Reading,MA:Addison-Wesley,1984.
[23]王永伟,马洁,吴湘繁,刘胜春.变革型领导行为、组织学习倾向与组织惯例更新的关系研究[J].管理世界,2012(9):110-119.Wang Yongwei, Ma Jie, Wu Xiangfan, Liu Shengchun.Transformational leadership behavior,organizational learning and organizational practices tendency updated relationship[J]. Management World,2012(9):110-119.
[24]李柏洲,赵健宇,苏屹.基于能级跃迁的组织学习—知识创造过程动态模型研究[J].科学学研究,2013,31(6):913-922.Li Baizhou,Zhao Jianyu,Su Yi. Research on dynamic model of"organizational learning—Knowledge creation"process based on level transition[J]. Studies in Science of Science,2013,31(6):913-922.
[25] Huber, G. P. Organizational learning:The contributing processes and the literatures[J]. Organization Science,1991,2(1):88-115.
[26] Berson Y,Da’as R,Waldman D A. How do leaders and their teams bring about organizational learning and outcomes?[J]. Personnel Psychology,2015,68(1):79-108.
[27]张辉,汪涛,刘洪深.顾客参与了为何仍不满意——顾客参与过程中控制错觉与顾客满意的关系研究[J].南开管理评论,2011,14(5):153-160.Zhang Hui,Wang Tao,Liu Hongshen. Why participated customers still dissatisfied research on the relationship between the Illusion of control and customer satisfaction in customer participation[J]. Nankai Business Review,2011,14(5):153-160.
[28]侯丽.“控制错觉”增大投资风险[N].中国社会科学报,2015-04-01(A03).Hou Li."Illusion of control"increases investment risk[N].China Social Science Daily,2015-04-01(A03).
[29]余明桂,李文贵,潘红波.管理者过度自信与企业风险承担[J].金融研究,2013,391(1):149-162.Yu Minggui,Li Wengui,Pan Hongbo. Managerial overconfidence and corporate risk taking[J]. Journal of Financial Research,2013,391(1):149-162.
[30] Larrick,R. P.,Burson K. A.,Soll J. B. Social comparison and confidence:When thinking you’re better than average predicts overconfidence(and when it does not)[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,2007,102(1):76-94.
[31] Van Zant A B,Moore D A. Avoiding the pitfalls of overconfidence while benefiting from the advantages of confidence[J].California Management Review,2013,55(2):05-23.
[32] Cain D M,Moore D A,Haran U. Making sense of overconfidence in market entry[J]. Strategic Management Journal,2015,36(1):01-18.
[33] Simon,H A. Administrative behavior:A study of decisionmaking processes in administrative organization[M]. New York:Free Press,1947.
[34] Sinkula J M,Baker W E,Noordewier T. A framework for market-based organizational learning:Linking values,knowledge,and behavior[J]. Journal of the academy of Marketing Science,1997,25(4):305-318.
[35]谢洪明,刘常勇,陈春辉.市场导向与组织绩效的关系:组织学习与创新的影响——珠三角地区企业的实证研究[J].管理世界,2006(2):80-94.Xie Hongming,Liu Changyong,Chen Chunhui. The relationship between being market-oriented and organizational performance:Organizational the learning effect of and innovation—A case study of the enterprises in the pearl river delta region[J]. Management World,2006(2):80-94.
[36] Simon M,Houghton S M,Aquino K. Cognitive biases,risk perception,and venture formation:How individuals decide to start companies[J]. Journal of Business Venturing,2000,15(2):113-134.
[37]江晓东.市场调研实验的SPSS操作教程[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2014:161.Jiang Xiaodong. SPSS operating tutorial of market research experiment[M]. Shanghai:Shanghai Finance University Press,2014:161.
[38]黄晓治,孔庆民.管理学的实证研究方法入门[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2014:138.Huang Xiaozhi,Kong Qingmin. Empirical research methods of management[M]. Beijing:Mechanical Industry Press,2014:138.
[39] Baron,R. M.,Kenny,D. A. The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research:Conceptual,strategic,and statistical considerations[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1986,51(6):1173-1182.
[40] Edwards,J. R.,Lambert,L. S. Methods for integrating moderation and mediation:A general analytical framework using moderated path analysis[J]. Psychological Methods,2007,12(1):01-22.
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