历史强震对2017九寨沟M_W6.5地震的应力影响及区域地震危险性
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摘要
松潘—甘孜块体东北端断裂分布复杂,地震活动活跃,1654年以来,该地区孕育了至少9次M>6.5地震.2017年8月8日发生的九寨沟M_W 6.5地震与历史强震活动的关联性,以及九寨沟震后周边区域未来地震趋势如何,均是亟待研究的问题.基于历史地震资料和岩石圈黏弹性分层介质模型,我们计算了1654年以来研究区历史地震序列同震、震后效应对九寨沟地震的影响,获取了九寨沟地震震源处应力状态的演化过程,并分析了历史地震活动对研究区主要活动断裂的应力影响.结果显示1654—2008年历史地震序列同震及震后效应使2017年九寨沟地震震源位置应力升高.基于不同的有效摩擦系数取值的计算结果显示:九寨沟地震震源位置累积库仑应力变化量为正且超过0.01 MPa.当有效摩擦系数取值为0.4时,累积库仑应力变化量为0.2009 MPa.九寨沟地震的发生受到历史地震同震及震后效应所导致累积库仑应力变化的促进作用.1654年天水M 8.0地震和1879年武都南M 8.0地震的同震及震后效应所导致的累积库仑应力变化量超过九寨沟震源处应力累积量的50%,这两次M 8.0地震在九寨沟地震震中应力演化过程中占据主导地位.1654—2017年历史强震活动使东昆仑断裂玛沁—玛曲段、塔藏断裂马家磨段和岷江断裂松潘—叠溪段应力明显上升.以上三处断层段均存在第四纪活动性,且近期均未有强震活动,历史强震活动提升了这些区域未来的地震危险性.历史地震使塔藏断裂西段、虎牙断裂北段、岷江断裂北段应力卸载,降低了这些区域未来的地震发生概率.
The northeastern Songpan-Garzê block is one of the most complex regions in the northern Tibet Plateau with several active faults in and around it. Since 1654, the northeastern Songpan-Garzê block has experienced no less than 9 M>6.5 earthquakes, including Jiuzhaigou M_W 6.5 earthquake, which occurred on August 8,2017. Whether the occurrence of this earthquake is related to the historical seismicity in surrounding areas has become an urgent concern, as with the future trend of seismic activities after Jiuzhaigou earthquake. Based on historical earthquakes data and the viscoelastic layered crustal model, we calculated the co-seismic and post-seismic stress disturbances caused by historical earthquakes on the northeastern Songpan-Garzê block and adjacent areas since 1654, obtained the stress evolutionary process on the epicenter of Jiuzhaigou earthquake, and analyzed the accumulated stress change on surrounding active faults. The results show that the Coulomb stress increased significantly on the epicenter of Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The accumulated stress change is positive and exceed 0.01 MPa no matter how the effective friction coefficient value change. If the value of 0.4 is chosen, the accumulated stress change is 0.2009 MPa. The co-seismic and post-seismic stress disturbances caused by historical earthquakes promoted the occurrence of Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The stress change caused by 1654 Tianshui M 8 event and 1879 Wudu M 8 event exceed 50% of the accumulated stress change, this two M 8 earthquakes play a dominated role in stress evolutionary process on the epicenter of Jiuzhaigou earthquake. Historical earthquakes from 1654 to 2017 raises the stress accumulations on Maqin-Maqu segment of East Kunlun fault, Majiamo segment of Tazang fault, Songpan-Diexi segment of Minjiang fault, and will raise the seismic hazards on these regions. The accumulated stress is released on the northern part of Minjiang fault, northern part of Huya fault and western segment of Tazang fault, which will make a depression of seismic hazards on these faults.
The northeastern Songpan-Garzê block is one of the most complex regions in the northern Tibet Plateau with several active faults in and around it. Since 1654, the northeastern Songpan-Garzê block has experienced no less than 9 M>6.5 earthquakes, including Jiuzhaigou M_W 6.5 earthquake, which occurred on August 8,2017. Whether the occurrence of this earthquake is related to the historical seismicity in surrounding areas has become an urgent concern, as with the future trend of seismic activities after Jiuzhaigou earthquake. Based on historical earthquakes data and the viscoelastic layered crustal model, we calculated the co-seismic and post-seismic stress disturbances caused by historical earthquakes on the northeastern Songpan-Garzê block and adjacent areas since 1654, obtained the stress evolutionary process on the epicenter of Jiuzhaigou earthquake, and analyzed the accumulated stress change on surrounding active faults. The results show that the Coulomb stress increased significantly on the epicenter of Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The accumulated stress change is positive and exceed 0.01 MPa no matter how the effective friction coefficient value change. If the value of 0.4 is chosen, the accumulated stress change is 0.2009 MPa. The co-seismic and post-seismic stress disturbances caused by historical earthquakes promoted the occurrence of Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The stress change caused by 1654 Tianshui M 8 event and 1879 Wudu M 8 event exceed 50% of the accumulated stress change, this two M 8 earthquakes play a dominated role in stress evolutionary process on the epicenter of Jiuzhaigou earthquake. Historical earthquakes from 1654 to 2017 raises the stress accumulations on Maqin-Maqu segment of East Kunlun fault, Majiamo segment of Tazang fault, Songpan-Diexi segment of Minjiang fault, and will raise the seismic hazards on these regions. The accumulated stress is released on the northern part of Minjiang fault, northern part of Huya fault and western segment of Tazang fault, which will make a depression of seismic hazards on these faults.
引文
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