产业结构调整与技术进步对雾霾减排的影响效应研究
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摘要
加快产业结构调整和技术进步对中国雾霾减排至关重要。基于2003-2016年中国285个地级及以上城市的统计数据,采用动态空间面板模型实证分析了产业结构调整与技术进步对雾霾减排的影响效应。研究结论表明:从整体层面看,在产业结构调整的雾霾减排效应当中,产业结构高级化的雾霾减排效应较强,而产业结构合理化对雾霾减排的促进作用相对较弱。在技术进步的雾霾减排效应当中,技术效率改善的雾霾减排效应较强,而科技进步对雾霾减排的促进作用相对很弱。同时,这些雾霾减排效应还受到城市人口规模和经济发展阶段的约束。特大城市和大城市的雾霾减排更多地受益于产业结构高级化发展,而中等城市和小城市可以从技术效率改善中获得更强的雾霾减排效应。工业化初期阶段城市的雾霾减排更多地受益于技术效率改善,而工业化中期阶段城市和后期阶段城市可以分别从产业结构高级化和合理化发展中获得更强的雾霾减排效应。
It is essential for China's haze reduction to accelerate industrial structure adjustment and technical progress.Based on the statistical data of 285 cities in China during 2003-2016,the study uses dynamic spatial panel model to empirically analyze the effects of industrial structure adjustment and technical progress on haze reduction. The results show that: from the overall level,in the haze reduction effects of industrial structure adjustment,the haze reduction effect of the upgrading of industrial structure is strong,while the optimization of industrial structure is relatively weak. In the haze reduction effects of technical progress,the haze reduction effect of efficiency change is strong,while the effect of technological change on haze reduction is relatively very weak. Meanwhile,these haze reduction effects are restrained by urban scale and economic development stage. The haze reduction of megalopolis and big cities benefits more from the upgrading development of industrial structure,while medium-sized cities and small cities can obtain stronger haze reduction effect from efficiency change. The haze reduction of early stage industrialization cities benefits more from efficiency change,while medium stage and late stage industrialization cities can obtain stronger haze reduction effect from the upgrading and the optimization of industrial structure respectively.
It is essential for China's haze reduction to accelerate industrial structure adjustment and technical progress.Based on the statistical data of 285 cities in China during 2003-2016,the study uses dynamic spatial panel model to empirically analyze the effects of industrial structure adjustment and technical progress on haze reduction. The results show that: from the overall level,in the haze reduction effects of industrial structure adjustment,the haze reduction effect of the upgrading of industrial structure is strong,while the optimization of industrial structure is relatively weak. In the haze reduction effects of technical progress,the haze reduction effect of efficiency change is strong,while the effect of technological change on haze reduction is relatively very weak. Meanwhile,these haze reduction effects are restrained by urban scale and economic development stage. The haze reduction of megalopolis and big cities benefits more from the upgrading development of industrial structure,while medium-sized cities and small cities can obtain stronger haze reduction effect from efficiency change. The haze reduction of early stage industrialization cities benefits more from efficiency change,while medium stage and late stage industrialization cities can obtain stronger haze reduction effect from the upgrading and the optimization of industrial structure respectively.
引文
[1]邵帅,李欣,曹建华,等.中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择---基于空间溢出效应的视角[J].经济研究,2016(9):73-88.
[2]陈诗一,陈登科.雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展[J].经济研究,2018(2):20-34.
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[5]韩永辉,黄亮雄,王贤彬.产业结构升级改善生态文明了吗---本地效应与区际影响[J].财贸经济,2015(12):129-146.
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[7]李姝.城市化、产业结构调整与环境污染[J].财经问题研究,2011(6):38-43.
[8]魏巍贤,杨芳.技术进步对中国二氧化碳排放的影响[J].统计研究,2010(7):36-44.
[9]YANG Y,CAI W J,WANG C.Industrial CO2intensity,indigenous innovation and R&D spillovers in China’s provinces[J].Applied Energy,2014,131(10):117-127.
[10]申萌,李凯杰,曲如晓.技术进步、经济增长与二氧化碳排放:理论和经验研究[J].世界经济,2012(7):83-100.
[11]金培振,张亚斌,彭星.技术进步在二氧化碳减排中的双刃效应---基于中国工业35个行业的经验证据[J].科学学研究,2014,32(5):706-716.
[12]张文彬,李国平.异质性技术进步的碳减排效应分析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2015,36(9):54-61.
[13]ZHOU X Y,ZHANG J,LI J P.Industrial structural transformation and carbon dioxide emissions in China[J].Energy Policy,2013,57(6):43-51.
[14]CHENG Z H,LI L S,LIU J.Industrial structure,technical progress and carbon intensity in China’s provinces[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2018(81):2935-2946.
[15]CHENG Z H,LI L S,LIU J.Identifying the spatial effects and driving factors of urban PM2.5 pollution in China[J].Ecological Indicators,2017(82):61-75.
[16]COPELAND B A,TAYLOR M S.North-South trade and the environmental[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,109(3):755-787.
[17]盛斌,吕越.外国直接投资对中国环境的影响-来自工业行业面板数据的实证研究[J].中国社会科学,2012(5):54-75.
[18]李筱乐.市场化、工业集聚与环境污染的实证分析[J].统计研究,2014(8):39-45.
[19]严雅雪,齐绍洲.外商直接投资对中国城市雾霾污染的时空效应检验[J].中国人口资源与环境,2017,27(4):68-77.
[20]Van DONKELAAR A,MARTIN R V,BRAUER M,et al.Global estimates of fine particulate matter using a combined geophysical-statistical method with information from satellites[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2016,50(7):3762-3772.
[21]FARE R,GROSSKOPF S,PASURKA C A.Environmental production functions and environmental directional distance functions[J].Energy,2007,32(7):1055-1066.
[22]KUKENOVA M,MONTEIRO J.Spatial dynamic panel model and system GMM:A Monte Carlo investigation[M].Munich:University Library of Munich,Germany,2009.
(1)毕节、铜仁、巢湖、三沙、海东和儋州由于行政区划调整未列入分析范围,拉萨由于数据不全也未列入分析范围。
[2]陈诗一,陈登科.雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展[J].经济研究,2018(2):20-34.
[3]GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Economic growth and the environment[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995(110):353-377.
[4]王文举,向其凤.中国产业结构调整及其节能减排潜力评估[J].中国工业经济,2014(1):44-56.
[5]韩永辉,黄亮雄,王贤彬.产业结构升级改善生态文明了吗---本地效应与区际影响[J].财贸经济,2015(12):129-146.
[6]黄亮雄,王鹤,宋凌云.我国的产业结构调整是绿色的吗?[J].南开经济研究,2012(3):110-127.
[7]李姝.城市化、产业结构调整与环境污染[J].财经问题研究,2011(6):38-43.
[8]魏巍贤,杨芳.技术进步对中国二氧化碳排放的影响[J].统计研究,2010(7):36-44.
[9]YANG Y,CAI W J,WANG C.Industrial CO2intensity,indigenous innovation and R&D spillovers in China’s provinces[J].Applied Energy,2014,131(10):117-127.
[10]申萌,李凯杰,曲如晓.技术进步、经济增长与二氧化碳排放:理论和经验研究[J].世界经济,2012(7):83-100.
[11]金培振,张亚斌,彭星.技术进步在二氧化碳减排中的双刃效应---基于中国工业35个行业的经验证据[J].科学学研究,2014,32(5):706-716.
[12]张文彬,李国平.异质性技术进步的碳减排效应分析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2015,36(9):54-61.
[13]ZHOU X Y,ZHANG J,LI J P.Industrial structural transformation and carbon dioxide emissions in China[J].Energy Policy,2013,57(6):43-51.
[14]CHENG Z H,LI L S,LIU J.Industrial structure,technical progress and carbon intensity in China’s provinces[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2018(81):2935-2946.
[15]CHENG Z H,LI L S,LIU J.Identifying the spatial effects and driving factors of urban PM2.5 pollution in China[J].Ecological Indicators,2017(82):61-75.
[16]COPELAND B A,TAYLOR M S.North-South trade and the environmental[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,109(3):755-787.
[17]盛斌,吕越.外国直接投资对中国环境的影响-来自工业行业面板数据的实证研究[J].中国社会科学,2012(5):54-75.
[18]李筱乐.市场化、工业集聚与环境污染的实证分析[J].统计研究,2014(8):39-45.
[19]严雅雪,齐绍洲.外商直接投资对中国城市雾霾污染的时空效应检验[J].中国人口资源与环境,2017,27(4):68-77.
[20]Van DONKELAAR A,MARTIN R V,BRAUER M,et al.Global estimates of fine particulate matter using a combined geophysical-statistical method with information from satellites[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2016,50(7):3762-3772.
[21]FARE R,GROSSKOPF S,PASURKA C A.Environmental production functions and environmental directional distance functions[J].Energy,2007,32(7):1055-1066.
[22]KUKENOVA M,MONTEIRO J.Spatial dynamic panel model and system GMM:A Monte Carlo investigation[M].Munich:University Library of Munich,Germany,2009.
(1)毕节、铜仁、巢湖、三沙、海东和儋州由于行政区划调整未列入分析范围,拉萨由于数据不全也未列入分析范围。
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