中国页岩气开发现状及前景预判

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英文篇名：China's Shale Gas Development and its Prospects 作者：赵群 ; 杨慎 ; 王红岩 ; 姜馨淳 ; 刘德勋 ; 孙钦平 ; 臧焕荣 英文作者：ZHAO Qun;YANG Shen;WANG Hongyan;JIANG Xinchun;LIU Dexun;SUN Qinping;ZANG Huanrong;Petro China Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development;National Energy Shale Gas R&D ( Experiment) Center; 关键词：页岩气 ; 资源量 ; 页岩气革命 ; 扶持政策 ; 产量 ; 效益 英文关键词：shale gas;;reserves;;shale gas development;;support policies;;output;;benefits 中文刊名：SXHS 英文刊名：Environmental Impact Assessment 机构：中国石油勘探开发研究院;国家能源页岩气研发(实验)中心; 出版日期：2019-01-15 出版单位：环境影响评价 年：2019 期：v.41;No.238 基金：国家科技重大专项“大型油气田及煤层气开发”(2017ZX05035) 语种：中文; 页：SXHS201901002 页数：5 CN：01 ISSN：50-1210/X 分类号：14-18

摘要

随着中国人口、经济、能源和环境的不断发展,天然气作为最清洁的化石能源,需求迅猛增长,产量缺口不断扩大。从分析中国页岩气发展现状入手,总结页岩气发展的政策、开发和示范试验情况,基于当前页岩气的资源基础、发展需求和政策现状等分析,预判未来页岩气发展前景。总的认为:(1)截至2017年底,全国已探明页岩气储量9200亿m3,实现产量90亿m3,预计2020年产量可达200亿m3以上。(2)中国页岩气资源丰富、天然气需求旺盛、国家大力扶持,已进入发展的战略机遇期,但仍面临资源禀赋较差、陆相和海陆过渡相页岩气开发尚未取得突破、未来扶持政策尚未落实到位等挑战;(3)初步预判2030年产量有望达到500亿m3,2040年具备达到800亿m3的发展前景。
        With the growth of China's population,economy,energy consumption and environmental protection,the demand for natural gas,the cleanest fossil energy,is growing rapidly too,leaving the gap between production and demand ever widening. This paper analyses the current situations of China's shale gas development in terms of the policy,the development and the exploitation test,and forecasts the future based on the shale gas resources,its demand and policy analysis. The paper shows that:( 1) by the end of 2017,China's recoverable shale gas was 9200 × 108 m3 and its output achieved 90 × 108 m3 with the expected output of over 200 × 108 m3 in 2020.( 2) the shale gas development enters an era of strategic opportunities as both the reserves and demand is huge with strong support from the government,but challenges still exist as resources endowment is relatively poor,the Marine development has not yet seen breakthroughs and the future support policy has yet to be implemented;( 3) it is predicted that the output reaches 500 × 108 m3 by 2030 and 800 × 108 m3 by 2040.

引文

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