我国城市适宜性等级评价与预测
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摘要
文章通过建立城市服务视角下的适宜性评价指标体系,基于网络分析法(ANP)构建评估模型,系统评估2005年、2010年、2015年我国31个省会城市的适宜性等级,划分了特征城市组群,预测2016—2020年城市适宜性发展及特征城市组群的变化趋势;同时,采用标准差椭圆模型分析3期城市适宜性水平的空间分布特征与规律。结果表明:从2005—2015年,处于高度适宜等级的特征城市组群变化较小,主要集中于东部沿海地区;处于不适宜等级的特征城市组群主要处于西北地区,整体适宜性程度有所提高;31个省会城市适宜性整体空间分布呈现东北—西南格局,且2010年在东北—西南方向出现分散,2015年在东北—西南出现极化;而到"十三五"末的2020年,高度适宜等级的特征城市组群分布趋势又有所变化。
This paper establishes an index system of suitability evaluation under the perspective of urban service, constructs an evaluation model based on analytical network process(ANP) to systematically evaluate 31 provincial capital cities' suitability grades in 2005, 2010 and 2015, divides characteristic city groups, and predicts the change trend of city suitability development and characteristic city groups from 2016 to 2020. Meanwhile, the paper uses the standard deviation elliptic model to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and laws of city suitability level in three periods. The study results are shown as follows: from 2005 to 2015, the characteristic city groups at the high suitability level have little change and are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas; the characteristic city groups in the unsuitability grade are mainly located in the northwest region, while the overall suitability of 31 provincial capitals is improved somewhat; the overall spatial pattern distribution of 31 provincial capitals presents a northeast-southwest pattern, scattered in the northeast-southwest direction in 2010, and polarization occurs in the southwest-Northeast of China occurred in 2015; by the end of the 13th Five-year Plan period in 2020, the distribution trend of characteristic city groups with a high degree of suitability has changed.
This paper establishes an index system of suitability evaluation under the perspective of urban service, constructs an evaluation model based on analytical network process(ANP) to systematically evaluate 31 provincial capital cities' suitability grades in 2005, 2010 and 2015, divides characteristic city groups, and predicts the change trend of city suitability development and characteristic city groups from 2016 to 2020. Meanwhile, the paper uses the standard deviation elliptic model to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and laws of city suitability level in three periods. The study results are shown as follows: from 2005 to 2015, the characteristic city groups at the high suitability level have little change and are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas; the characteristic city groups in the unsuitability grade are mainly located in the northwest region, while the overall suitability of 31 provincial capitals is improved somewhat; the overall spatial pattern distribution of 31 provincial capitals presents a northeast-southwest pattern, scattered in the northeast-southwest direction in 2010, and polarization occurs in the southwest-Northeast of China occurred in 2015; by the end of the 13th Five-year Plan period in 2020, the distribution trend of characteristic city groups with a high degree of suitability has changed.
引文
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[14]赵璐,赵作权,王伟.中国东部沿海地区经济空间格局变化[J].经济地理,2014,34(2).
[15]曾浩,杨天池,高苇.区域经济空间格局演化的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2016,(1).
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[17]尹海伟,张琳琳,孔繁花等.基于层次分析和移动窗口方法的济南市建设用地适宜性评价[J].资源科学,2013,(3).
[2]尚海洋,丁杨,刘正汉.基于生态服务和城市服务的适宜性评价模型研究[J].资源开发与市场,2016,32(8).
[3]梁涛,蔡春霞,刘民等.城市土地的生态适宜性评价方法--以江西萍乡市为例[J].地理研究,2007,26(4).
[4]张浩,赵智杰.基于GIS的城市用地生态适宜性评价研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(3).
[5]张胜武,申成磊,石培基等.兰州新区建设用地生态适宜性评价[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(5).
[6]程淑杰,朱志玲,白林波.基于GIS的人居环境生态适宜性评价[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(1).
[7]王雷涛,尹林克,陈艳锋等.基于GIS的乌鲁木齐市城市荒山建设用地适宜性评价[J].干旱区研究,2017,(1).
[8]Saaty T L.Fundamentals of the Analytic Network Process-Dependence and Feedback in Decision-making With a Single Network[J].Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2004,13(2).
[9]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学--反馈动态性复杂分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[10]王莲芬.网络分析法(ANP)的理论与算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,(3).
[11]Butler C D,Oluoch-Kosura W.Linking Future Ecosystem Services and Future Human Well-being[J].Ecology&Soceity,2006,11(1).
[12]Harvey J,Miller.Tobler’s First Law and Spatial Analysis[J].Annals of AAG,2004,94(2).
[13]刘晓婷,陈闻君.2004-2013年新疆县域经济空间差异演化[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(4).
[14]赵璐,赵作权,王伟.中国东部沿海地区经济空间格局变化[J].经济地理,2014,34(2).
[15]曾浩,杨天池,高苇.区域经济空间格局演化的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2016,(1).
[16]贺晟晨,王远,高倩等.城市经济环境协调发展系统动力学模拟[J].长江流资源与环境,2009,(8).
[17]尹海伟,张琳琳,孔繁花等.基于层次分析和移动窗口方法的济南市建设用地适宜性评价[J].资源科学,2013,(3).
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