淮南1957—2017年夏季降水变化特征
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摘要
利用淮南市1957—2017年共61年逐日降水资料,运用趋势分析法、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验法和滑动t检验,以期研究淮南夏季降水的年代际变化特征、周期特征和突变特征。结果表明(:1)淮南夏季降水年代际变化呈增多趋势(;2)暴雨量占比线性增长显著性高于暴雨日数和暴雨量,未来极端暴雨降水的概率正在增加;(3)淮南夏季降水量存在准2年的主周期振荡,另外存在9年、18年、32年次振荡周期;(4)1967年、2008年前后淮南夏季降水呈现部分突变特征,但突变并不显著。Mann-Kendall检验表明1967年以来降水呈增多趋势,未来沿淮地区降水增多,强降水极端性增强,将对沿淮地区防洪及农业生产带来挑战。
Based on the daily precipitation data of Huainan from 1957 to 2017,we adopted trend analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall test and sliding t test to study the interdecadal variation,periodic characteristics and catastrophic characteristics of summer precipitation in Huainan.The results showed that:(1) the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation in Huainan had an increasing trend;(2) the linear increase of the proportion of rainstorm was significantly higher than that of the rainstorm days and rainstorm amounts,and the probability of future extreme rainstorm was increasing;(3) there was a quasi-two-year oscillation of the main period of summer precipitation in Huainan,and there were 9,18 and 32 years oscillation period in addition;(4) the summer precipitation in Huainan in 1967 and 2008 showed a partial mutation which was not obvious.In the future,the precipitation and the extreme intensity of heavy precipitation along the Huaihe River will increase,which will bring challenges to flood control and agricultural production.
Based on the daily precipitation data of Huainan from 1957 to 2017,we adopted trend analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall test and sliding t test to study the interdecadal variation,periodic characteristics and catastrophic characteristics of summer precipitation in Huainan.The results showed that:(1) the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation in Huainan had an increasing trend;(2) the linear increase of the proportion of rainstorm was significantly higher than that of the rainstorm days and rainstorm amounts,and the probability of future extreme rainstorm was increasing;(3) there was a quasi-two-year oscillation of the main period of summer precipitation in Huainan,and there were 9,18 and 32 years oscillation period in addition;(4) the summer precipitation in Huainan in 1967 and 2008 showed a partial mutation which was not obvious.In the future,the precipitation and the extreme intensity of heavy precipitation along the Huaihe River will increase,which will bring challenges to flood control and agricultural production.
引文
[1]黄荣辉,陈际龙,黄刚,等.中国东部夏季降水的准两年周期振荡及其成因[J].大气科学,2006,30(4):545-560.
[2]马音,陈文,王林,等.中国夏季淮河和江南梅雨期降水异常年际变化的气候背景及其比较[J].气象学报,2011,69(2):334-343.
[3]尹娅婷.1951—2013年南京市降水变化特征研究[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(5):9-13.
[4]张晓红,陈兴,罗连升,等.1960—2008年淮河流域面雨量时空变化及径流响应[J].资源科学,2015,37(10):2051-2058.
[5]王怀军,潘莹萍,陈忠升.1960—2014年淮河流域极端气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理科学[J],2017,37(12):1900-1908.
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[8]邓汗青.淮河流域春夏季降水位相变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2017,40(4):473-484.
[9]叶金印.近50年淮河流域气候变化时空特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(1):84-91.
[10]殷方圆,殷淑燕等.近51a长江中下游与黄河中下游地区夏季降水变化对比[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(1):318-322.
[11]杨玮,程智.近53年江淮流域梅汛期极端降水变化特征[J].气象,2015,41(9):1126-1133.
[12]王岽,徐京京,周广亮,等.近60a来淮河流域干旱变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(3):340-343.
[13]王月,张强,顾西辉,等.淮河流域夏季降水异常与若干气候因子的关系[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(1):67-74.
[14]李超,韩桂荣,孙燕,等.近50a东北冷涡异常特征及其与淮河流域降水的关系[J].气象科学,2015,35(2):216-222.
[15]陈栋,黄荣辉,陈际龙,等.我国夏季暴雨气候学的研究进展与科学问题[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(4):477-490.
[16]史恒斌.淮河流域夏季降水与中高纬波列结构的关系[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):436-443.
[17]陈伟,汤静,卜思阳,等.基于Mann-Kendall法和小波分析的沈阳站1951—2010年降水变化特征研究[J].农业灾害研究,2015,5(11):37-38.
[18]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[19]黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2004:121-141
[20] Chansaengkrachang K, Luadsong A, Aschariyaphotha N. A Studyof the Time Lags of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Rainfall OverThailand by Using the Cross Wavelet Analysis[J].Arabian JournalForence&Engineering,2015,40(1):215-225.
[21] Kisi O, Ay M. Comparison of Mann-Kendall and innovative trendmethod for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,513:362-375.
[2]马音,陈文,王林,等.中国夏季淮河和江南梅雨期降水异常年际变化的气候背景及其比较[J].气象学报,2011,69(2):334-343.
[3]尹娅婷.1951—2013年南京市降水变化特征研究[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(5):9-13.
[4]张晓红,陈兴,罗连升,等.1960—2008年淮河流域面雨量时空变化及径流响应[J].资源科学,2015,37(10):2051-2058.
[5]王怀军,潘莹萍,陈忠升.1960—2014年淮河流域极端气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理科学[J],2017,37(12):1900-1908.
[6]刘丽红,颜冰,肖柏青,等.1960—2010年淮河流域降水量时空变化特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(3):43-47.
[7]龚年祖,胡姗姗,金华星,等.1961—2013年滁州市气温和降水变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(35):198-203.
[8]邓汗青.淮河流域春夏季降水位相变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2017,40(4):473-484.
[9]叶金印.近50年淮河流域气候变化时空特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(1):84-91.
[10]殷方圆,殷淑燕等.近51a长江中下游与黄河中下游地区夏季降水变化对比[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(1):318-322.
[11]杨玮,程智.近53年江淮流域梅汛期极端降水变化特征[J].气象,2015,41(9):1126-1133.
[12]王岽,徐京京,周广亮,等.近60a来淮河流域干旱变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(3):340-343.
[13]王月,张强,顾西辉,等.淮河流域夏季降水异常与若干气候因子的关系[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(1):67-74.
[14]李超,韩桂荣,孙燕,等.近50a东北冷涡异常特征及其与淮河流域降水的关系[J].气象科学,2015,35(2):216-222.
[15]陈栋,黄荣辉,陈际龙,等.我国夏季暴雨气候学的研究进展与科学问题[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(4):477-490.
[16]史恒斌.淮河流域夏季降水与中高纬波列结构的关系[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):436-443.
[17]陈伟,汤静,卜思阳,等.基于Mann-Kendall法和小波分析的沈阳站1951—2010年降水变化特征研究[J].农业灾害研究,2015,5(11):37-38.
[18]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[19]黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2004:121-141
[20] Chansaengkrachang K, Luadsong A, Aschariyaphotha N. A Studyof the Time Lags of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Rainfall OverThailand by Using the Cross Wavelet Analysis[J].Arabian JournalForence&Engineering,2015,40(1):215-225.
[21] Kisi O, Ay M. Comparison of Mann-Kendall and innovative trendmethod for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,513:362-375.
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