基于TRMM降水订正数据的祁连山地区最大降水高度带研究
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摘要
采用TRMM卫星反演月降水数据和气象台站实测降水数据,通过误差评估等数理统计方法验证数据,并结合Kriging法对TRMM降水数据进行订正,以此研究了祁连山地区最大降水高度带的时空变化。结果表明:(1)TRMM降水数据在祁连山地区的整体适用性较好。其中TRMM降水数据与台站实测值的年均降水量相关系数达0.94;季节平均降水量的相关系数分别为春季(0.87)、夏季(0.89)、秋季(0.88)、冬季(0.70)。(2)祁连山地区27个气象台站实测值与TRMM降水数据的相关性较好,但在个别台站误差较大且存在低值高估、高值低估的现象。(3)祁连山地区年均降水量自东向西呈减少趋势。东、中、西三段最大降水高度带分别为4100 m、4500 m、4700 m,年均降水量的垂直变化率分别为16.6 mm/100 m、10.8 mm/100 m、9.8 mm/100 m。(4)1998-2016年祁连山地区东、中、西三段降水量均呈波动增加,最大降水高度带也呈波动上升趋势,祁连山地区年内各季节最大降水高度带按夏、春、秋、冬的次序降低。
Atmospheric precipitation is the most important link in the process of global water vapor cycle and energy conversion, and it is the material basis for the global ecosystem to maintain stability. Therefore, it is increasingly important to monitor and forecast precipitation for regional climate analysis, water resources evaluation and hydrological process simulation.As an important ecological barrier, the Qilian Mountains plays a critical role in maintaining the natural environment and social development in Northwest China. Thus, it is of great significance to examine the distribution and variation of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains.However, there are relatively few studies on precipitation in mountainous areas due to some factors, such as insufficient measured data, complicated precipitation environment and so on,which limits the further study to some extent. In recent years, with the development of satellite inversion technology, the application of satellite to precipitation retrieval is becoming more and more mature, which provides data support for the study of precipitation in mountainous areas.Therefore, this paper uses the data of TRMM monthly precipitation and ground meteorological station precipitation, combined with the error evaluation and other mathematical statistics and Kriging interpolation method, to calibrate TRMM precipitation, so as to examine the spatiotemporal variations of the zone of the maximum precipitation in the study area. The results show that:(1) The overall performance of TRMM precipitation is good in the Qilian Mountains. The measured annual precipitation of 31 meteorological stations has a high correlation(0.94) with the TRMM data, and the correlation coefficients of the seasonal average precipitation are 0.87(spring), 0.89(summer), 0.88(autumn) and 0.7(winter).(2) The errors of some stations are large and the low values are overestimated and the high values are underestimated.(3) Annual average precipitation shows a decreasing trend from east to west in the region, and zones of the maximum precipitation in the eastern, central and western parts appear at 4100 m, 4500 m and 4700 m, respectively. The vertical variation rates of the average annual precipitation are 16.6 mm/100 m, 10.8 mm/100 m, 9.8 mm/100 m, respectively.(4) The precipitation fluctuated and increased in the eastern, central and western parts of the study area from 1998 to 2016. The zone of the maximum precipitation also shows a fluctuating upward trend. The maximum precipitation height in each season decreases in the order of summer,spring, autumn and winter.
Atmospheric precipitation is the most important link in the process of global water vapor cycle and energy conversion, and it is the material basis for the global ecosystem to maintain stability. Therefore, it is increasingly important to monitor and forecast precipitation for regional climate analysis, water resources evaluation and hydrological process simulation.As an important ecological barrier, the Qilian Mountains plays a critical role in maintaining the natural environment and social development in Northwest China. Thus, it is of great significance to examine the distribution and variation of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains.However, there are relatively few studies on precipitation in mountainous areas due to some factors, such as insufficient measured data, complicated precipitation environment and so on,which limits the further study to some extent. In recent years, with the development of satellite inversion technology, the application of satellite to precipitation retrieval is becoming more and more mature, which provides data support for the study of precipitation in mountainous areas.Therefore, this paper uses the data of TRMM monthly precipitation and ground meteorological station precipitation, combined with the error evaluation and other mathematical statistics and Kriging interpolation method, to calibrate TRMM precipitation, so as to examine the spatiotemporal variations of the zone of the maximum precipitation in the study area. The results show that:(1) The overall performance of TRMM precipitation is good in the Qilian Mountains. The measured annual precipitation of 31 meteorological stations has a high correlation(0.94) with the TRMM data, and the correlation coefficients of the seasonal average precipitation are 0.87(spring), 0.89(summer), 0.88(autumn) and 0.7(winter).(2) The errors of some stations are large and the low values are overestimated and the high values are underestimated.(3) Annual average precipitation shows a decreasing trend from east to west in the region, and zones of the maximum precipitation in the eastern, central and western parts appear at 4100 m, 4500 m and 4700 m, respectively. The vertical variation rates of the average annual precipitation are 16.6 mm/100 m, 10.8 mm/100 m, 9.8 mm/100 m, respectively.(4) The precipitation fluctuated and increased in the eastern, central and western parts of the study area from 1998 to 2016. The zone of the maximum precipitation also shows a fluctuating upward trend. The maximum precipitation height in each season decreases in the order of summer,spring, autumn and winter.
引文
[1]沈彬,李新功.塔里木河流域TRMM降水数据精度评估.干旱区地理,2015,38(4):703-712.[SHEN B,LI X G.Accuracy assessment of TRMM3B43 data in Tarim River Basin.Arid Land Geography,2015,38(4):703-712.]
[2]李岩瑛,张强,许霞,等.祁连山及周边地区降水与地形的关系.冰川冻土,2010,32(1):52-61.[LI Y Y,ZHANG Q,XU X,et al.Relationship between precipitation and terrain over the Qilian Mountains and their ambient areas.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2010,32(1):52-61.]
[3]赵成义,施枫芝,盛钰,等.近50 a来新疆降水随海拔变化的区域分异特征.冰川冻土,2011,33(6):1203-1213.[ZHA-O C Y,SHI F Z,SHENG Y,et al.Regional differentiation characteristics of precipitation changing with altitude in Xinjiang region in recent 50 years.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011,33(6):1203-1213.]
[4]王宁练,贺建桥,蒋熹,等.祁连山中段北坡最大降水高度带观测与研究.冰川冻土,2009,31(3):395-403.[WANG NL,HE J Q,JIANG X,et al.Study on the zone of maximum precipitation in the north slopes of the central Qilian Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2009,31(3):395-403.]
[5]嵇涛,杨华,刘睿,等.TRMM卫星降水数据在川渝地区的适用性分析.地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1375-1386.[JIT,YAGN H,LIU R,et al.Applicability analysis of the TRMM precipitation data in the Sichuan-Chongqing region.Progress in Geography,2014,33(10):1375-1386.]
[6]范科科,段利民,张强,等.基于多种高分辨率卫星数据的TRMM降水数据降尺度研究:以内蒙古地区为例.地理科学,2017,39(9):1411-1421.[FAN K K,DUAN L M,ZHANG Q,et al.Downscaling analysis of TRMM precipitation based on multiple high-resolution satellite data in the Inner Mongolia,China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,39(9):1411-1421.]
[7]吕洋,杨胜天,蔡明勇,等.TRMM卫星降水数据在雅鲁藏布江流域的适用性分析.自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1414-1425.[LYU Y,YANG S T,CAI M Y,et al.The applicability analysis of TRMM precipitation data in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(8):1414-1425.]
[8]吴雪娇,杨梅学,吴洪波,等.TRMM多卫星降水数据在黑河流域的验证与应用.冰川冻土,2013,35(2):310-319.[WU X J,YANG M X,WU H B,et al.Verifying and applying the TRMM TMPA in Heihe River Basin.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(2):310-319.]
[9]张涛,李宝林,何元庆,等.基于TRMM订正数据的横断山区降水时空分布特征.自然资源学报,2015,30(2):260-270.[ZHANG T,LI B L,HE Y Q,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation based on corrected TRMM data in Henduan Mountains.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(2):260-270.]
[10]季漩,罗毅.TRMM降水数据在中天山区域的精度评估分析.干旱区地理,2013,36(2):253-262.[JI X,LUO Y.Quality assessment of the TRMM precipitation data in Mid Tianshan Mountains.Arid Land Geography,2013,36(2):253-262.]
[11]李琼,杨梅学,万国宁,等.TRMM 3B43降水数据在黄河源区的适用性评价.冰川冻土,2016,38(3):620-633.[LI Q,YANG M X,WAN G N,et al.Analysis of the accuracy of TRMM 3B43 precipitation data in the source region of the Yellow River.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(3):620-633.]
[12]HUFFMAN G J,ADLER R F,BOLVIN D T,et al.The TRMM multi satellite precipitation analysis(TMPA):Quasiglobal,multiyear,combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales.Journal of Hydro Meteorology,2006,8:38-54.
[13]白爱娟,刘长海,刘晓东.TRMM多卫星降水分析资料揭示的青藏高原及其周边地区夏季降水日变化.地球物理学,2008,51(3):704-714.[BAI A J,LIU C H,LIU X D.Diurnal variation of summer rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring regions revealed by TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2008,51(3):704-714.]
[14]阚宝云,苏凤阁,童凯,等.四套降水资料在喀喇昆仑山叶尔羌河上游流域的适用性分析.冰川冻土,2013,35(3):710-722.[KAN B Y,SU F G,TONG K,et al.Analysis of the applicability of four precipitation datasets in the upper reaches of the Yarkant River,the Karakorum.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(3):710-722.]
[15]穆振侠,姜卉芳.基于TRMM/TMI的天山西部山区降水垂直分布规律的研究.干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(10):66-71.[MU Z X,JIANG H F.The vertical distribution law of precipitation in the Western Tianshan Mountain based on T-RMM/TMI.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2010,24(10):66-71.]
[16]刘俊峰,陈仁升,卿文武,等.基于TRMM降水数据的山区降水垂直分布特征.水科学进展,2011,22(4):447-454.[LIU J F,CHEN R S,QING W W,et al.Study on the vertical distribution of precipitation in mountainous region using T-RMM data.Advances in Water Science,2011,22(4):447-454.]
[17]巩宁刚,孙美平,闫露霞,等.1979-2016年祁连山地区大气水汽含量时空特征及其与降水的关系.干旱区地理,2017,40(4):762-771.[GONG N G,SUN M P,YAN L X,et al.Temporal and spatial characteristics of atmospheric water vapor and its relationship with precipitation in Qilian Mountains during 1979-2016.Arid Land Geography,2017,40(4):762-771.]
[18]孙美平,刘时银,姚晓军,等.近50年来祁连山冰川变化:基于中国第一、二次冰川编目数据.地理学报,2015,70(9):1402-1414.[SUN M P,LIU S Y,YAO X J,et al.Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains in the past half century:Based on the revised First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventory.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(9):1402-1414.]
[19]ANDERMANN C,BONNET S,GLOAGUEN R.Evaluation of precipitation data sets along the Himalayan front.Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems,2011,12(7):Q07023,doi:10.1029/2011GC003513.
[20]PIPUNIC R C,RYU D,COSTELLOE J F,et al.An evaluation and regional error modeling methodology for near-real-time satellite rainfall data over Australia.Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2015,120(3):10764-10783.
[21]SAVTCHENKO A K,HUFFMAN G,VOLLMER B.Assessment of precipitation anomalies in California using TRMMand MERRA data.Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2015,120(16):8206-8215.
[22]杨艳芬,罗毅.中国西北干旱区TRMM遥感降水探测能力初步评价.干旱区地理,2013,36(3):371-382.[YANG YF,LUO Y.Evaluation on detective ability of TRMM remote sensing precipitation in arid region of Northwest China.Arid Land Geography,2013,36(3):371-382.]
[23]刘小婵,赵建军,张洪岩,等.TRMM降水数据在东北地区的精度验证与应用.自然资源学报,2015,30(6):1047-1056.[LIU X C,ZHAO J J,ZHANG H Y,et al.Accuracy validation and application of TRMM precipitation data in Northeast China.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(6):1047-1056.]
[24]DARAND M,AMANOLLAHI J,ZANDKARIMI S.Evaluation of the performance of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA)estimation over Iran.Atmospheric Research,2017,190:121-127.
[25]马金辉,屈创,张海筱,等.2001-2010年石羊河流域上游TRMM降水资料的降尺度研究.地理科学进展,2013,32(9):1423-1432.[MA J H,QU C,ZHANG H X,et al.Spatial downscaling of TRMM precipitation data based on DEMin the up-stream of Shiyang River Basin during 2001-2010.Progress in Geography,2013,32(9):1423-1432.]
[26]陈少勇,任燕,乔立,等.中国西北地区大雨以上降水日数的时空分布特征.资源科学,2011,33(5):958-965.[CHENS Y,REN Y,QIAO L,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of days with above heavy rainfall over Northwestern China.Resources Science,2011,33(5):958-965.]
[27]贾文雄.祁连山气候的空间差异与地理位置和地形的关系.干旱区研究,2010,27(4):607-615.[JIA W X,Study on the relationships between regional climatic difference,geographical location and terrain in the Qilian Mountains.Arid Zone Research,2010,27(4):607-615.]
[28]齐文文,张百平,庞宇,等.基于TRMM数据的青藏高原降水的空间和季节分布特征.地理科学,2013,33(8):999-1005.[QI W W,ZHANG B P,PANG Y,et al.TRMM-data-based spatial and seasonal patterns of precipitation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(8):999-1005.]
[2]李岩瑛,张强,许霞,等.祁连山及周边地区降水与地形的关系.冰川冻土,2010,32(1):52-61.[LI Y Y,ZHANG Q,XU X,et al.Relationship between precipitation and terrain over the Qilian Mountains and their ambient areas.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2010,32(1):52-61.]
[3]赵成义,施枫芝,盛钰,等.近50 a来新疆降水随海拔变化的区域分异特征.冰川冻土,2011,33(6):1203-1213.[ZHA-O C Y,SHI F Z,SHENG Y,et al.Regional differentiation characteristics of precipitation changing with altitude in Xinjiang region in recent 50 years.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011,33(6):1203-1213.]
[4]王宁练,贺建桥,蒋熹,等.祁连山中段北坡最大降水高度带观测与研究.冰川冻土,2009,31(3):395-403.[WANG NL,HE J Q,JIANG X,et al.Study on the zone of maximum precipitation in the north slopes of the central Qilian Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2009,31(3):395-403.]
[5]嵇涛,杨华,刘睿,等.TRMM卫星降水数据在川渝地区的适用性分析.地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1375-1386.[JIT,YAGN H,LIU R,et al.Applicability analysis of the TRMM precipitation data in the Sichuan-Chongqing region.Progress in Geography,2014,33(10):1375-1386.]
[6]范科科,段利民,张强,等.基于多种高分辨率卫星数据的TRMM降水数据降尺度研究:以内蒙古地区为例.地理科学,2017,39(9):1411-1421.[FAN K K,DUAN L M,ZHANG Q,et al.Downscaling analysis of TRMM precipitation based on multiple high-resolution satellite data in the Inner Mongolia,China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,39(9):1411-1421.]
[7]吕洋,杨胜天,蔡明勇,等.TRMM卫星降水数据在雅鲁藏布江流域的适用性分析.自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1414-1425.[LYU Y,YANG S T,CAI M Y,et al.The applicability analysis of TRMM precipitation data in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(8):1414-1425.]
[8]吴雪娇,杨梅学,吴洪波,等.TRMM多卫星降水数据在黑河流域的验证与应用.冰川冻土,2013,35(2):310-319.[WU X J,YANG M X,WU H B,et al.Verifying and applying the TRMM TMPA in Heihe River Basin.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(2):310-319.]
[9]张涛,李宝林,何元庆,等.基于TRMM订正数据的横断山区降水时空分布特征.自然资源学报,2015,30(2):260-270.[ZHANG T,LI B L,HE Y Q,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation based on corrected TRMM data in Henduan Mountains.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(2):260-270.]
[10]季漩,罗毅.TRMM降水数据在中天山区域的精度评估分析.干旱区地理,2013,36(2):253-262.[JI X,LUO Y.Quality assessment of the TRMM precipitation data in Mid Tianshan Mountains.Arid Land Geography,2013,36(2):253-262.]
[11]李琼,杨梅学,万国宁,等.TRMM 3B43降水数据在黄河源区的适用性评价.冰川冻土,2016,38(3):620-633.[LI Q,YANG M X,WAN G N,et al.Analysis of the accuracy of TRMM 3B43 precipitation data in the source region of the Yellow River.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(3):620-633.]
[12]HUFFMAN G J,ADLER R F,BOLVIN D T,et al.The TRMM multi satellite precipitation analysis(TMPA):Quasiglobal,multiyear,combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales.Journal of Hydro Meteorology,2006,8:38-54.
[13]白爱娟,刘长海,刘晓东.TRMM多卫星降水分析资料揭示的青藏高原及其周边地区夏季降水日变化.地球物理学,2008,51(3):704-714.[BAI A J,LIU C H,LIU X D.Diurnal variation of summer rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring regions revealed by TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2008,51(3):704-714.]
[14]阚宝云,苏凤阁,童凯,等.四套降水资料在喀喇昆仑山叶尔羌河上游流域的适用性分析.冰川冻土,2013,35(3):710-722.[KAN B Y,SU F G,TONG K,et al.Analysis of the applicability of four precipitation datasets in the upper reaches of the Yarkant River,the Karakorum.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(3):710-722.]
[15]穆振侠,姜卉芳.基于TRMM/TMI的天山西部山区降水垂直分布规律的研究.干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(10):66-71.[MU Z X,JIANG H F.The vertical distribution law of precipitation in the Western Tianshan Mountain based on T-RMM/TMI.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2010,24(10):66-71.]
[16]刘俊峰,陈仁升,卿文武,等.基于TRMM降水数据的山区降水垂直分布特征.水科学进展,2011,22(4):447-454.[LIU J F,CHEN R S,QING W W,et al.Study on the vertical distribution of precipitation in mountainous region using T-RMM data.Advances in Water Science,2011,22(4):447-454.]
[17]巩宁刚,孙美平,闫露霞,等.1979-2016年祁连山地区大气水汽含量时空特征及其与降水的关系.干旱区地理,2017,40(4):762-771.[GONG N G,SUN M P,YAN L X,et al.Temporal and spatial characteristics of atmospheric water vapor and its relationship with precipitation in Qilian Mountains during 1979-2016.Arid Land Geography,2017,40(4):762-771.]
[18]孙美平,刘时银,姚晓军,等.近50年来祁连山冰川变化:基于中国第一、二次冰川编目数据.地理学报,2015,70(9):1402-1414.[SUN M P,LIU S Y,YAO X J,et al.Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains in the past half century:Based on the revised First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventory.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(9):1402-1414.]
[19]ANDERMANN C,BONNET S,GLOAGUEN R.Evaluation of precipitation data sets along the Himalayan front.Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems,2011,12(7):Q07023,doi:10.1029/2011GC003513.
[20]PIPUNIC R C,RYU D,COSTELLOE J F,et al.An evaluation and regional error modeling methodology for near-real-time satellite rainfall data over Australia.Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2015,120(3):10764-10783.
[21]SAVTCHENKO A K,HUFFMAN G,VOLLMER B.Assessment of precipitation anomalies in California using TRMMand MERRA data.Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2015,120(16):8206-8215.
[22]杨艳芬,罗毅.中国西北干旱区TRMM遥感降水探测能力初步评价.干旱区地理,2013,36(3):371-382.[YANG YF,LUO Y.Evaluation on detective ability of TRMM remote sensing precipitation in arid region of Northwest China.Arid Land Geography,2013,36(3):371-382.]
[23]刘小婵,赵建军,张洪岩,等.TRMM降水数据在东北地区的精度验证与应用.自然资源学报,2015,30(6):1047-1056.[LIU X C,ZHAO J J,ZHANG H Y,et al.Accuracy validation and application of TRMM precipitation data in Northeast China.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(6):1047-1056.]
[24]DARAND M,AMANOLLAHI J,ZANDKARIMI S.Evaluation of the performance of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA)estimation over Iran.Atmospheric Research,2017,190:121-127.
[25]马金辉,屈创,张海筱,等.2001-2010年石羊河流域上游TRMM降水资料的降尺度研究.地理科学进展,2013,32(9):1423-1432.[MA J H,QU C,ZHANG H X,et al.Spatial downscaling of TRMM precipitation data based on DEMin the up-stream of Shiyang River Basin during 2001-2010.Progress in Geography,2013,32(9):1423-1432.]
[26]陈少勇,任燕,乔立,等.中国西北地区大雨以上降水日数的时空分布特征.资源科学,2011,33(5):958-965.[CHENS Y,REN Y,QIAO L,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of days with above heavy rainfall over Northwestern China.Resources Science,2011,33(5):958-965.]
[27]贾文雄.祁连山气候的空间差异与地理位置和地形的关系.干旱区研究,2010,27(4):607-615.[JIA W X,Study on the relationships between regional climatic difference,geographical location and terrain in the Qilian Mountains.Arid Zone Research,2010,27(4):607-615.]
[28]齐文文,张百平,庞宇,等.基于TRMM数据的青藏高原降水的空间和季节分布特征.地理科学,2013,33(8):999-1005.[QI W W,ZHANG B P,PANG Y,et al.TRMM-data-based spatial and seasonal patterns of precipitation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(8):999-1005.]
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