贵州乌江流域人口与经济发展协调性研究
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摘要
贵州乌江流域是典型的山地流域,流域自然生态环境恶劣,人口与经济发展矛盾突出,探究流域人口与经济协调发展关系对于推动流域人口与经济可持续发展具有重要意义。选取2001～2015年贵州乌江流域各区域相关数据,运用人口-经济弹性、地理集中度、耦合指数、空间自相关和重心分析等方法对流域人口与经济协调发展关系进行探究。结果表明:(1)在总量规模上,流域人口增长与经济增长协调度较高,但流域内各区域却存在差异。(2)人口、经济地理集中度在空间分布上存在区域差异,流域中部区域较高且由中部向四周逐渐降低。人口、经济地理集中度在全域空间上莫兰指数值逐渐变小,表明流域人口、经济地理集中度空间自相关性在减弱,人口、经济发展的空间独立性逐渐增强。(3)人口重心、经济重心逐渐向远离流域几何重心的西南方向移动,人口重心与经济重心发生偏离,贵州乌江流域存在区域发展非均衡性。
The Wujiang River Basin is a typical mountainous basin in Guizhou Province. Its natural ecological environment is bad and the contradiction between population and economic development is prominent. Exploring the relationship between population and economic coordinated development in the basin is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of population and economy in the basin. Based on the data from 2001 to 2015 by the Wujiang River Basin of Guizhou Province, this paper explores the relationship between population and economic coordinated development in the basin by means of population-economic elasticity, geographic concentration, coupling index, spatial autocorrelation and gravity analysis. The results show that: 1) In terms of the total scale, the population growth and economic growth in the basin have a high degree of coordination, but there are differences among different regions of the basin. 2) There are regional differences in the spatial distribution of population and economic geographic concentration. The central region of the basin is higher and gradually decreases from the middle to the surrounding areas. The value of Moran index of population and economic geography concentration degree decreases gradually in the global space, which indicates that the spatial autocorrelation of population and economic geography concentration degree is weakening, and the spatial independence of population and economic development is increasing gradually. 3) The Population center of gravity and the economic center of gravity gradually move to the southwest far away from the geometric center of gravity of the basin. The Population center of gravity deviates from economic center of gravity. There is a regional development imbalance in the Wujiang River Basin.
The Wujiang River Basin is a typical mountainous basin in Guizhou Province. Its natural ecological environment is bad and the contradiction between population and economic development is prominent. Exploring the relationship between population and economic coordinated development in the basin is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of population and economy in the basin. Based on the data from 2001 to 2015 by the Wujiang River Basin of Guizhou Province, this paper explores the relationship between population and economic coordinated development in the basin by means of population-economic elasticity, geographic concentration, coupling index, spatial autocorrelation and gravity analysis. The results show that: 1) In terms of the total scale, the population growth and economic growth in the basin have a high degree of coordination, but there are differences among different regions of the basin. 2) There are regional differences in the spatial distribution of population and economic geographic concentration. The central region of the basin is higher and gradually decreases from the middle to the surrounding areas. The value of Moran index of population and economic geography concentration degree decreases gradually in the global space, which indicates that the spatial autocorrelation of population and economic geography concentration degree is weakening, and the spatial independence of population and economic development is increasing gradually. 3) The Population center of gravity and the economic center of gravity gradually move to the southwest far away from the geometric center of gravity of the basin. The Population center of gravity deviates from economic center of gravity. There is a regional development imbalance in the Wujiang River Basin.
引文
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[16]于潇,崔仟.长吉图开发开放先导区人口与经济协调发展研究[J].人口学刊,2011(5):25-31.[Yu Xiao,Cui Qian. A Study on coordinated develop-ment of Population and economy in Changjitu Pilot Zone. Population Journal,2011(5):25-31.]
[17]秦泗刚,段汉明,李正军.资源型城市人口、经济、环境协调发展研究——以克拉玛依市为例[J].生态经济,2016,32(6):93-97.[Qin Sigang,Duan Hanming,Li Zhengjun. Study on coordinated development of population, economy and environment in resource:Taking Karamay City as an example. Ecological Economy,2016,32(6):93-97.]
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[19]贵州省统计局.贵州统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2002-2016.[Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Statistics.Guizhou statistical yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2002-2016.]
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[21]王国霞,秦志琴.山西省人口与经济空间关系变化研究[J].经济地理,2013,33(4):29-35.[Wang Guoxia,Qin Zhiqin. The evolution of spatial relationship between population and economy in Shanxi Province. Economic Geography,2013,33(4):29-35.]
[22]苏维词.乌江流域梯级开发的不良环境效应[J].长江流域资源与环境,2002,11(4):387-392.[Su Weichi.Negative effects of cascade hydropower exploitation environmental in the Wujiang Basin. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2002,11(4):387-392.]
[23]王秀春,黄秋昊.贵州省乌江流域植被覆盖动态变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(5):16-21.[Wang Xiuchun,Huang Qiuhao.Assessment of vegetative land cover change using AVHRR/NDVI and SPOT/NDVI data in Wujiang River Basin,Southwest China. Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(5):16-21.]
[24]徐海洋,魏浪,孙显春,等.水电梯级开发对乌江流域景观生态系统的影响[J].水力发电,2010,36(5):8-10.[Xu Haiyang,Wei Lang,Sun Xianchun et al.Impact of hydropower cascaded development on Wujang watershed landscape ecosystem. Water Power,2010,36(5):8-10.]
[25]李国平,罗心然.京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展关系研究[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(1):25-33.[Li Guoping, Luo Xinran.Coordinated development between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Progress in Geography,2017,36(1):25-33.]
[2]朱利安·西蒙.人口增长经济学[M].彭松建等译.北京:北京大学出版社,1984.[Julian L. Simon.Population growth economics. Translated by Peng Songjian et al. Beijing:Peking University Press,1984,1:32-35.]
[3] Hondroyiannis G,Papapetrou E.Demographic changes and economics activity in Greece[J]. Review of Economics of the Household,2004,2(1):49-71.
[4] Garza Rodriguez J,Andrade Velasco C,Martinez Silva K et al.The relationship between population growth and economic growth in Mexico[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2016,36(1):97-107.
[5]马寅初.新人口论[M].长春:吉林大学出版社,1997.[Ma Yinchu.New population theory. Changchun:Jilin University Press,1997.]
[6]许月卿,李双成.我国人口与社会经济重心的动态演变[J].人文地理,2005,20(1):117-120.[Xu Yueqing, LI Shuangcheng.Dynamic evolvement of the population and the social economy gravity center in China. Human Geography,2005,20(1):117-120.]
[7]徐建华,岳文泽.近20年来中国人口重心与经济重心的演变及其对比分析[J].地理科学,2001,21(5):385-389.[Xu Jianhua Yue Wenze. Evolvement and comparative analysis of the population center gravity and the economy gravity center in recent twenty years in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2001,21(5):385-389.]
[8]樊杰,陶岸君,吕晨.中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95.[Fan Jie,Tao Anjun, Lv Chen. The coupling mechanism of the centroids of economic gravity and population gravity and its effect on the regional gap in China. Progress in Geography,2010,29(1):87-95.]
[9]徐艳艳,于洋.甘肃省人口与社会经济重心的动态演变及其对比分析[J].中国林业经济,2009(2):41-44.[Xu Yanyan, Yu Yang. Comparative analysis of the dynamic evolvement procedure of population and economy in Gansu Province. China Forestry Economy,2009(2):41-44.]
[10]钟业喜,陆玉麒.鄱阳湖生态经济区人口与经济空间耦合研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(2):195-200.[Zhong Yexi,Lu Yuqi. The coupling relationship between population and economic in po yang lake ecological economic zone. Economic Geography,2011,31(2):195-200.]
[11]王磊,段学军,田方,等.长江三角洲人口与经济的空间分布关系研究[J].经济地理,2009,29(10):1619-1623.[Wang Lei,Duan Xuejun,Tian Fang et al. Study on the relationship between population and economic spatial distribution in Yangtze River Delta. Economic Geography,2009,29(10):1619-1623.]
[12]付娇,黄银洲,唐菊.甘肃省经济与人口发展耦合研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(7):49-53.[Fu Jiao,Huang Yinzhou,Tang Ju. Coupling research of population changes and economic development in Gansu Province.China Population,Resources and Environment,2018,28(7):49-53.]
[13]段海燕,肖依静,丁哲,等.区域人口、经济、能源环境协调发展情景预测研究[J].人口学刊,2017, 39(2):47-56.[Duan Haiyan,Xiao Yijing,Ding Zhe et al.A Study on the scenario prediction on population, economy and energy-environment coordinated development of Jilin Province in 2030. Population Journal,2017, 39(2):47-56.]
[14]吴连霞,赵媛,管卫华,等.江苏省人口——经济耦合与经济发展阶段关联分析[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(1):57-63.[Wu Lianxia,Zhao Yuan,Guan Weihua et al.Association analysis on the coupling types between population-economic development and economic development stages in Jiangsu Province. Areal Research and Development,2016,35(1):57-63.]
[15]官冬杰,谭静,张梦婕,等.重庆市人口与经济发展空间耦合分布研究[J].人文地理, 2017(2):122-128.[Guan Dongjie,Tan Jing,Zhang Mengjie et al. Spatial coupling distribution of population and economic development in Chongqing. Human Geography,2017(2):122-128.]
[16]于潇,崔仟.长吉图开发开放先导区人口与经济协调发展研究[J].人口学刊,2011(5):25-31.[Yu Xiao,Cui Qian. A Study on coordinated develop-ment of Population and economy in Changjitu Pilot Zone. Population Journal,2011(5):25-31.]
[17]秦泗刚,段汉明,李正军.资源型城市人口、经济、环境协调发展研究——以克拉玛依市为例[J].生态经济,2016,32(6):93-97.[Qin Sigang,Duan Hanming,Li Zhengjun. Study on coordinated development of population, economy and environment in resource:Taking Karamay City as an example. Ecological Economy,2016,32(6):93-97.]
[18]赵万民赵炜.山地流域人居环境建设的景观生态研究——以乌江流域为例[J].城市生态规划,2005,4(64):64-67.[Zhao Wanmin,Zhao Wei. Landscape and ecological research on human settlements construction in mountainous watershed:A case study of Wujiang. Urban ecology,2005,4(64):64-67.]
[19]贵州省统计局.贵州统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2002-2016.[Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Statistics.Guizhou statistical yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2002-2016.]
[20]赵兴智.贵州省深度贫困地区脱贫攻坚工作推进大会[N/OL].http://news.gog.cn/system/2017/08/07/015966970.shtml,2017-08-07.[Zhao Xingzhi.The work of poverty alleviation in poor areas of Guizhou province depth Promotion Conference.http://news.gog.cn/system/2017/08/07/015966970.shtml,2017-08-07.]
[21]王国霞,秦志琴.山西省人口与经济空间关系变化研究[J].经济地理,2013,33(4):29-35.[Wang Guoxia,Qin Zhiqin. The evolution of spatial relationship between population and economy in Shanxi Province. Economic Geography,2013,33(4):29-35.]
[22]苏维词.乌江流域梯级开发的不良环境效应[J].长江流域资源与环境,2002,11(4):387-392.[Su Weichi.Negative effects of cascade hydropower exploitation environmental in the Wujiang Basin. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2002,11(4):387-392.]
[23]王秀春,黄秋昊.贵州省乌江流域植被覆盖动态变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(5):16-21.[Wang Xiuchun,Huang Qiuhao.Assessment of vegetative land cover change using AVHRR/NDVI and SPOT/NDVI data in Wujiang River Basin,Southwest China. Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(5):16-21.]
[24]徐海洋,魏浪,孙显春,等.水电梯级开发对乌江流域景观生态系统的影响[J].水力发电,2010,36(5):8-10.[Xu Haiyang,Wei Lang,Sun Xianchun et al.Impact of hydropower cascaded development on Wujang watershed landscape ecosystem. Water Power,2010,36(5):8-10.]
[25]李国平,罗心然.京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展关系研究[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(1):25-33.[Li Guoping, Luo Xinran.Coordinated development between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Progress in Geography,2017,36(1):25-33.]
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