我国文冠果分布的气候地理特征及未来气候情景下适宜种植区预测
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摘要
通过获取文冠果的种群分布点,基于影响文冠果生长的气候地理环境因子构建MaxEnt模型,探讨影响文冠果生长的主导气候地理环境因子条件,利用ArcGIS10.1平台对当前气候环境下文冠果的适宜种植区进行分析,并对未来不同气候情景下文冠果的适宜种植区进行预测,为文冠果的资源保护和未来种植提供理论依据和科学参考。结果表明:1)影响文冠果种植分布的主要因子有年降水量、年平均气温、温度年较差、高程和最干季降水量;2)在当前气候情景下,文冠果的高适宜种植区面积、适宜种植区面积、低适宜种植区面积和不适宜种植区面积分别占全国总面积的1.17%、2.85%、3.78%和92.20%,高适宜种植区主要分布在陕西、山西和甘肃;3)在未来不同的气候情景下,文冠果的高适宜种植区、适宜种植区的面积均呈扩大的趋势,随着时间的推移,文冠果的高适宜种植区和适宜种植区的面积也呈扩大趋势。
This research examined the current spatial distribution of Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge in China and identified its impacting factors using a MaxEnt model. The suitable cultivation regions in China under the current climate scenario was further investigated using ArcGIS10.1, suitable area under the climate change scenario was predicted. This research may provide useful references for cultivating Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge. Results showed that: There are five significant factors, annual precipitation, annual mean air temperature, annual temperature range,elevation and precipitation of driest quarter, determining the distribution of Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge; under the current climate scenario, the percentages of areas highly suitable, suitable, marginally suitable and unsuitable for Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge are 1.17%, 2.85%, 3.78% and 92.20% respectively; under all four climate-change scenarios, the areas of highly suitable and suitable will be expanding gradually.
This research examined the current spatial distribution of Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge in China and identified its impacting factors using a MaxEnt model. The suitable cultivation regions in China under the current climate scenario was further investigated using ArcGIS10.1, suitable area under the climate change scenario was predicted. This research may provide useful references for cultivating Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge. Results showed that: There are five significant factors, annual precipitation, annual mean air temperature, annual temperature range,elevation and precipitation of driest quarter, determining the distribution of Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge; under the current climate scenario, the percentages of areas highly suitable, suitable, marginally suitable and unsuitable for Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge are 1.17%, 2.85%, 3.78% and 92.20% respectively; under all four climate-change scenarios, the areas of highly suitable and suitable will be expanding gradually.
引文
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[18]车乐,曹博,白成科,等.基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS对太白米的潜在分布预测及适宜性评价[J].生态学杂志,2014,33(6):1623-1628.Che L,Cao B,Bai C K,et al.Predictive distribution and habitat suitability assessment of Notholirion bulbuliferum based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2014,33(6):1623-1628.
[19]Phillips S J,Dudík M.Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J].Ecography,2008,31(2):161-175.
[20]何其瑾,周广胜.我国玉米种植区分布的气候适宜性[J].科学通报,2012,57(4):267-275.He Q J,Zhou G S.The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2012,57(4):395-403.
[2]刘淑明,孙丙寅,贺安乾,等.西部地区文冠果种群种子特征及主要化学成分的地理变化[J].林业科学,2012,48(4):43-48.Liu S M,Sun B Y,He A Q,et al.Geographical change of seed characteristic and the main chemical composition of Xanthoceras sorbifolia population in the west of China[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2012,48(4):43-48.
[3]张凌,刘晶晶,张芸香,等.山西省文冠果种质资源调查分析[J].山西林业科技,2016,45(3):20-22.Zhang L,Liu J J,Zhang Y X,et al.Investigation and analysis of Xanthoceras sorbifolia germplasm resource in Shanxi[J].Shanxi Forestry Science and Technology,2016,45(3):20-22.
[4]万群芳,何景峰,张文辉.文冠果地理分布和生物生态学特征[J].西北农业学报,2010,19(9):179-185.Wan Q F,He J F,Zhang W H.Distribution and bio-ecological characteristics of Xanthoceras sorbifolia[J].Acta Agriculturae Boreali-occidentalis Sinica,2010,19(9):179-185.
[5]朱仁斌.中国特有植物文冠果(Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge)的谱系地理研究与应用[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2016.Zhu R B.Phylogeography of Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge an endemic plant to China[D].Yangling:Northwest A&F University,2016.
[6]Ricklefs R E.A comprehensive framework for global patterns in biodiversity[J].Ecology Letters,2004,7(1):1-15.
[7]Herzog S K,Kessler M.Local vs.regional control on species richness:A new approach to test for competitive exclusion at the community level[J].Global Ecology and Biogeography,2006,15(2):163-172.
[8]Walther G R,Post E,Convey P,et al.Ecological responses to recent climate change[J].Nature,2002,416(6879):389-395.
[9]吴建国,周巧富.中国嵩草属植物地理分布模式和适应的气候特征[J].植物生态学报,2012,36(3):199-221.Wu J G,Zhou Q F.Geographical distribution pattern and climate characteristics of adaptation for Kobresia in China[J].Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2012,36(3):199-221.
[10]赵泽芳,卫海燕,郭彦龙,等.黑果枸杞(Lycium ruthenicum)分布对气候变化的响应及其种植适宜性[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(5):1-8.Zhao Z F,Wei H Y,Guo Y L,et al.Impacts of climate change on cultivation suitability of Lycium ruthenicum[J].Journal of Desert Research,2017,37(5):1-8.
[11]赵泽芳,卫海燕,郭彦龙,等.人参潜在地理分布以及气候变化对其影响预测[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(11):3607-3615.Zhao Z F,Wei H Y,Guo Y L,et al.Potential distribution of Panax ginseng and its predicted responses to climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2016,27(11):3607-3615.
[12]薛睿,柴春山,王三英,等.甘肃省野生文冠果资源极其分布[J].中国野生植物资源,2017,36(4):60-78.Xue R,Chai C S,Wang S Y,et al.Xanthoceras sorbifolia wild resources and its distribution in Gansu Province[J].Chinses Wild Plant Resources,2017,36(4):60-78.
[13]牟洪香.木本能源植物文冠果(Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge)的调查与研究[D].北京:中国林业科学研究院,2006.Mou H X.Investigation and research on woody energy plant Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Forestry,2006.
[14]Hijmans R J,Cameron S E,Parra J L,et al.Worldclim:very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25(15):1965-1978.
[15]Moss R H,Edmonds J A,Hibbard K A,et al.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment[J].Nature,2010,463(7282):747-756.
[16]IPCC.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report(AR5)of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[17]李国庆,刘长成,刘玉国,等.物种分布模型理论研究进展[J].生态学报,2013,33(16):4827-4835.Li G Q,Liu C C,Liu Y G,et al.Advances in theoretical issues of species distribution models[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(16):4827-4835.
[18]车乐,曹博,白成科,等.基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS对太白米的潜在分布预测及适宜性评价[J].生态学杂志,2014,33(6):1623-1628.Che L,Cao B,Bai C K,et al.Predictive distribution and habitat suitability assessment of Notholirion bulbuliferum based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2014,33(6):1623-1628.
[19]Phillips S J,Dudík M.Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J].Ecography,2008,31(2):161-175.
[20]何其瑾,周广胜.我国玉米种植区分布的气候适宜性[J].科学通报,2012,57(4):267-275.He Q J,Zhou G S.The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2012,57(4):395-403.
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