中国亚热带典型农业区长期气温和降水变化特征:基于韶关市1951～2017年气象数据的分析
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摘要
近年来极端性气候变化事件的增多对中国亚热带地区农业发展造成了较大影响,因此进行长时间尺度上气候变化特征的评估能为农业管理、区域发展提供重要信息。本文选择亚热带区重要城市韶关市,基于其1951～2017年的气温和降水监测资料,利用线性倾向估计、M-K检测法、STARS突变检测等方法,分析了韶关市过去67年来气温和降水的长期变化特征。结果表明:近67年来,韶关市年平均气温、各季平均气温和年降水、各季节降水均呈上升趋势,年均温的上升速率为0.054℃/10a,年降水的上升速率达31.5mm/10a;1998～2017年韶关市气温上升趋势明显趋缓,年平均气温已由升温趋势转为降温趋势,韶关市年平均气温线性变化率为-0.297℃/10a,较1951～1997年、1951～2017年分别下降了0.351℃/10a和0.339℃/10a,近20年来气温变化存在较为明显的变暖趋缓现象;突变检测中,韶关市年平均气温突变时间主要发生1998年,而降水量变化不存在明显的突变点。通过研究韶关市气温和降水变化特征,可以加深对区域气候特征的认识和理解,也能为农业气象预报工作提供一定的理论参考。
In recent years, the increase of extreme climate variation events has a great impact on agricultural development in subtropical area of China. Therefore, the assessment of climate variation characteristics in a long time scale can provide important information for agricultural management and regional development. Based on the monitoring data of temperature and precipitation from 1951 to 2017 in Shaoguan City, an important city in subtropical region, it was analyzed the long-term variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Shaoguan City in the past 67 years by using linear tendency estimation, M-K detection and STARS mutation detection. The results show that the annual average temperature, seasonal average temperature, annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Shaoguan City have appeared the increase trend in the past 67 years. The annual average temperature rising rate is 0.054 C/10 a, and the annual precipitation rising rate is 31.5 mm/10 a. From 1998 to 2017, the temperature rising trend in Shaoguan City has been slowed down obviously, and the annual average temperature has changed from a warming trend to a cooling trend, and the annual average temperature in Shaoguan City has linearly changed with the change rate of temperature of-0.297 C/10 a, which is 0.351 C/10 a and 0.339 C/10 a lower than 1951-1997 and 1951-2017 respectively. In the past 20 years, temperature variation appeared the obvious phenomenon of warming slowing down. In the mutation detection, the time of annual average temperature mutation in Shaoguan City mainly occurred in 1998, while the variation of precipitation does not have obvious mutation point. By studying the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Shaoguan City, it can help us with more understanding on the regional climate characteristics, it can also provide a theoretical reference for agrometeorological forecasting.
In recent years, the increase of extreme climate variation events has a great impact on agricultural development in subtropical area of China. Therefore, the assessment of climate variation characteristics in a long time scale can provide important information for agricultural management and regional development. Based on the monitoring data of temperature and precipitation from 1951 to 2017 in Shaoguan City, an important city in subtropical region, it was analyzed the long-term variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Shaoguan City in the past 67 years by using linear tendency estimation, M-K detection and STARS mutation detection. The results show that the annual average temperature, seasonal average temperature, annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Shaoguan City have appeared the increase trend in the past 67 years. The annual average temperature rising rate is 0.054 C/10 a, and the annual precipitation rising rate is 31.5 mm/10 a. From 1998 to 2017, the temperature rising trend in Shaoguan City has been slowed down obviously, and the annual average temperature has changed from a warming trend to a cooling trend, and the annual average temperature in Shaoguan City has linearly changed with the change rate of temperature of-0.297 C/10 a, which is 0.351 C/10 a and 0.339 C/10 a lower than 1951-1997 and 1951-2017 respectively. In the past 20 years, temperature variation appeared the obvious phenomenon of warming slowing down. In the mutation detection, the time of annual average temperature mutation in Shaoguan City mainly occurred in 1998, while the variation of precipitation does not have obvious mutation point. By studying the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Shaoguan City, it can help us with more understanding on the regional climate characteristics, it can also provide a theoretical reference for agrometeorological forecasting.
引文
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[2]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis summary for policymakers[R].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013
[3]任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境究,2005,10(4):701-716
[4]葛全胜,郑景云,郝志新,等.过去2 000年中国气候变化研究的新进展[J].地理学报,2014,6(9):1248-1258
[5]胡晓明.近50年亚洲地面气温变化趋势与突变的时空分布[D].中国海洋大学,2013:1-2
[6]姚小英.广东近40年气候变化特征及对农业的影响[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(26):222-228
[7]苏京志,温敏,丁一汇,等.全球变暖趋缓研究进展[J].大气科学,2016,40(6):1143-1153
[8]杜勤勤,张明军,王圣杰,等.中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应[J].地理学报,2018,73(9):1748-1764
[9]王祝.广东省降水的趋势变化和时空分布特性分析[J].人民珠江,2006,27(2):37-39
[10]罗碧瑜.梅州近50年气候变化特征及未来变化趋势[J].气象科技,2008,36(3):289-292
[11]刘艳群,陈创买,郑勇,等.韶关市年和月最大日降水量多年一遇的极值计算[J].广东气象,2008,30(1):33-34
[12]封国林,龚志强,支蓉.气候变化检测与诊断技术的若干新进展[J].气象学报,2008,66(6):892-905
[13]Rodionov,S.N.(2004) A sequential algorithm for testing climateregime shifts.Geophys.Res.Lett.31,L09204
[14]刘占明,陈子燊.韶关市极端降水变化趋势分析[J].人民珠江,2017,38(6):6-10
[15]文小平.韶关市降水分布规律及变化特征分析[J].广东水利水电,2010(5):24-26
[16]Rodionov SN.A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts.Geophysical Research Letters,2004,31(9):1-4
[17]张盛霖,邓高燕,黄勇奇.Mann-Kendall检验法在Excel中的实现与应用[EB/OL].北京:中国科技论文在线[2014-06-27].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201406-448
[18]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:63-66
[19]郭俊廷,高峰.1962～2012年通化市气温、降水变化特征及突变分析[J].气象灾害防御,2017,24(3):37-42
[20]丁丽佳,王春林,凌良新.广东地区平均气温的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(4):500-506
[21]闫桂霞,李登华.1953～2010年期间广东降水的变化特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2012,10(30):6-9
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