2008年汶川地震同震-震后应力演化及其对2017年九寨沟M_S 7.0地震的影响
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摘要
2017年8月8日四川九寨沟发生了MS7.0地震,距离汶川地震震中约为140km.地震的发生会调整区域应力分布和影响区域地震活动性变化.那么,汶川地震的发生对此次九寨沟地震有何影响?区域应力如何演化?为回答这些问题,本研究基于高性能并行有限元方法和网格自适应加密技术,采用含地形起伏的黏弹非均匀椭球型地球模型,分别计算了汶川地震引起的同震-震后应力时空动态演化及其对此次九寨沟地震的影响.同时,考虑同震静态应力和震后黏弹性应力调整,计算了汶川、芦山和九寨沟地震的发生对周边断层应力积累的影响.计算结果显示汶川地震对九寨沟发震断层的同震库仑应力加载约为0.008 MPa,震后9年的黏弹性应力加载约为0.012~0.016 MPa,可能会使九寨沟地震提前发生.此外,汶川、芦山和九寨沟地震的发生引起龙门山断裂映秀以南段、东昆仑断裂、龙日坝断裂东段和岷江断裂北段及鲜水河断裂康定段应力加载大于0.01 MPa,增加了这些断裂带发生地震的危险性.
On 8 August 2017,an MS7.0 earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou County,Sichuan Province,about 140 km to the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake.Generally,both the coseismic and postseismicstress changes due to a great earthquake are sufficiently large to disturb local tectonic stress and seismicity.Therefore,how would stress change due to theWenchuan earthquake and what is its effect on the Jiuzhaigou earthquake?And how had the local stress changed?Here,we address these questions using a 3-D visco-elastic model.Based on high performance parallel computing and Adaptive Mesh Refinement(AMR)technique,we builda lateral heterogeneous ellipsoidal Earth model to calculate visco-elastic deformation,stress changes and the Coulomb Failure Stress changes(ΔCFS)induced by the Wenchuan earthquake.Moreover,we calculate theΔCFS on nearby faults from coseismic and postseismic stress induced by the the Wenchuan,Lushan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes,respectively.Results show that the coseismicΔCFS on the hypocenter of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake caused by the Wenchuan earthquake is about 0.008 MPa,while the postseismicΔCFS is up to 0.012~0.016 MPa which means several years ahead of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake.TheΔCFS of nearby major faults in this region,such as the southern segment of the Longmenshan,East Kunlun,Longriba,northern segment of the Minjiang,Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe faults,caused by the Wenchuan,Lushan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes are all greater than 0.01 MPa,increasing the seismic risks of these faults.
On 8 August 2017,an MS7.0 earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou County,Sichuan Province,about 140 km to the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake.Generally,both the coseismic and postseismicstress changes due to a great earthquake are sufficiently large to disturb local tectonic stress and seismicity.Therefore,how would stress change due to theWenchuan earthquake and what is its effect on the Jiuzhaigou earthquake?And how had the local stress changed?Here,we address these questions using a 3-D visco-elastic model.Based on high performance parallel computing and Adaptive Mesh Refinement(AMR)technique,we builda lateral heterogeneous ellipsoidal Earth model to calculate visco-elastic deformation,stress changes and the Coulomb Failure Stress changes(ΔCFS)induced by the Wenchuan earthquake.Moreover,we calculate theΔCFS on nearby faults from coseismic and postseismic stress induced by the the Wenchuan,Lushan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes,respectively.Results show that the coseismicΔCFS on the hypocenter of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake caused by the Wenchuan earthquake is about 0.008 MPa,while the postseismicΔCFS is up to 0.012~0.016 MPa which means several years ahead of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake.TheΔCFS of nearby major faults in this region,such as the southern segment of the Longmenshan,East Kunlun,Longriba,northern segment of the Minjiang,Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe faults,caused by the Wenchuan,Lushan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes are all greater than 0.01 MPa,increasing the seismic risks of these faults.
引文
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