2035年中国能源与矿产资源需求展望
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摘要
进入21世纪,中国能源和矿产资源消费快速增长,许多重要矿产消费量甚至超过了全球消费总量的一半。未来中长期资源需求预测是国家政策制定和战略规划的重要依据。本文基于中国人口、国内生产总值(GDP)、矿产资源消费量等历史统计数据,选择了人均消费"S"形规律、需求类比和比例关系测算法、部门消费法等方法,对2035年之前43种(类)主要矿产资源的需求量进行了系统预测。结果显示:我国矿产资源需求从全面高速增长向差异化增长转变;2025年前多数大宗矿产将陆续达到需求峰值;2030年一次能源达到需求峰值时的结构会发生重大变化,煤炭将从2017年的60.4%下降到46.3%,天然气将从6.6%增加到13.2%,非化石能源将从13.6%增长到23.4%;2035年大部分战略性新兴矿产仍将保持需求增长,全球供需结构和供需格局都将发生极大改变。
Since 2000, China's consumption of energy and mineral resources has grown rapidly, and its consumption of some important mineral resources has even exceeded half of the global consumption. Medium-and long-term resource demand forecast is an important basis for national policy formulation and strategic planning. Based on historical statistics such as China's population, GDP, and mineral resources consumption, this paper adopts the S-shape rule of per capita consumption, the demand analogy and proportional relationship measurement algorithm, and the departmental consumption method, to systematically predict the demand for 43 types of major mineral resources before 2035. Results show that China's demand for mineral resources has changed from high-speed growth to differential growth; its demand for most of the bulk minerals will peak by 2025; the structure of primary energy sources will change dramatically when their demand peak by 2030, with the demand for Coal falling from 60.4% in 2017 to 46.3%, that for natural gas increasing from 6.6% to 13.2%, and that for non-fossil energy increasing from 13.6% to 23.4%; and demand for most strategic emerging minerals will continue to grow before 2035, and the global structure and pattern of supply and demand for energy and mineral resources will change greatly.
Since 2000, China's consumption of energy and mineral resources has grown rapidly, and its consumption of some important mineral resources has even exceeded half of the global consumption. Medium-and long-term resource demand forecast is an important basis for national policy formulation and strategic planning. Based on historical statistics such as China's population, GDP, and mineral resources consumption, this paper adopts the S-shape rule of per capita consumption, the demand analogy and proportional relationship measurement algorithm, and the departmental consumption method, to systematically predict the demand for 43 types of major mineral resources before 2035. Results show that China's demand for mineral resources has changed from high-speed growth to differential growth; its demand for most of the bulk minerals will peak by 2025; the structure of primary energy sources will change dramatically when their demand peak by 2030, with the demand for Coal falling from 60.4% in 2017 to 46.3%, that for natural gas increasing from 6.6% to 13.2%, and that for non-fossil energy increasing from 13.6% to 23.4%; and demand for most strategic emerging minerals will continue to grow before 2035, and the global structure and pattern of supply and demand for energy and mineral resources will change greatly.
引文
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[19]李鹏远,周平,唐金荣,等.中国黄金制造业用金需求趋势预测[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1018-1029.Li P Y,Zhou P,Tang J R,et al.China gold fabrication demand prediction[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):1018-1029.
[20]张若然,陈其慎,柳群义,等.全球主要铂族金属需求预测及供需形势分析[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1018-1029.Zhang R R,Chen Q S,Liu Q Y,et al.World demand and analysis of supply and demand of platinum-group metals[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):1018-1029.
[21]高天明,陈其慎,于汶加,等.中国天然石墨未来需求与发展展望[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1059-1067.Gao T M,Chen Q S,Yu W J,et al.Projection of China’s graphite demand and development prospects[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):1059-1067.
[2]于汶加,王安建,王高尚.解析全球能源需求预测结果及相关模型体系[J].资源与产业,2009,11(3):12-16.Yu W J,Wang A J,Wang G S.Prognostication results and model systems of global energy demand[J].Resources&Industries,2009,11(3):12-16.
[3]高芯蕊,王安建.基于“S”规律的中国钢需求预测[J].地球学报,2010,31(5):645-652.Gao X R,Wang A J.The prediction of China’s steel demand based on s-shaped regularity[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2010,31(5):645-652.
[4]柳群义,王安建,陈其慎.2040年全球铜需求趋势分析[J].中国矿业,2014,23(8):15-18.Liu Q Y,Wang A J,Chen Q S.Global copper demand trend analysis to 2040[J].China Mining Magazine,2014,23(8):15-18.
[5]羊建波,许志斌,彭浩,等.全球铜资源供需格局趋势分析[J].中国矿业,2015,24(6):1-5.Yang J B,Xu Z B,Peng H,et al.Global copper resources supply and demand trend[J].China Mining Magazine,2015,24(6):1-5.
[6]陈其慎,王高尚,王安建.铜、铝需求“S”形规律的三个转变点剖析[J].地球学报,2010,31(5):659-665.Chen Q S,Wang G S,Wang A J.An analysis of the three turning points in the“s-shape”rule of copper and aluminum demand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2010,31(5):659-665.
[7]代涛,文博杰,梁靓,等.铅消费规律探索及中国需求预测[J].地球学报,2017,38(1):61-68.Dai T,Wen B J,Liang L,et al.A tentative discussion on the law of lead consumption and a prediction of China’s lead demand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2017,38(1):61-68.
[8]代涛,陈其慎,于汶加.全球锌消费及需求预测与中国锌产业发展[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):951-960.Dai T,Chen Q S,Yu W J.Global zinc consumption and demand forecast and development of China’s zinc industry[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):951-960.
[9]那丹妮,王高尚.全球镍需求趋势预测[J].资源与产业,2010,12(6):53-57.Na D N,Wang G S.Forecasting global nickel demand trend[J].Resources&Industries,2010,12(6):53-57.
[10]易晓剑,刘梦岐.钨的消费现状及需求预测[J].稀有金属与硬质合金,2002,30(4):51-53.Yi X J,Liu M Q.Present status of the W consumption and prediction of W demand[J].Rare Metals and Cemented Carbides,2002,30(4):51-53.
[11]王京,周园园,李梓博,等.未来10年我国锡资源需求预测[J].中国国土资源经济,2018(1):39-44.Wang J,Zhou Y Y,Li Z B,et al.Demand forecast of China’s tin resources in the next 10 years[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,2018(1):39-44.
[12]罗英杰,王小烈,柳群义,等.中国未来锑资源需求预测[J].中国矿业,2017,26(3):1-5.Luo Y J,Wang X L,Liu Q Y,et al.The future demand of antimony in China[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(3):1-5.
[13]赵琪,黄翀,李颖,等.中国菱镁矿需求趋势分析[J].中国矿业,2016,25(12):38-42.Zhao Q,Huang C,Li Y,et al.Analysis of the trend of the magnetite demand in China[J].China Mining Magazine,2016,25(12):38-42.
[14]赵汀,秦鹏珍,王安建,等.镓矿资源需求趋势分析与中国镓产业发展思考[J].地球学报,2017,38(1):77-84.Zhao D,Qin P Z,Wang A J,et al.An analysis of gallium ore resources demand trend and the thinking concerning China’s gallium industry development[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2017,38(1):77-84.
[15]黄翀,陈其慎,李颖,等.2030年全球及中国铼资源需求刍议[J].中国矿业,2014,23(9):9-11.Huang C,Cheng Q S,Li Y,et al.Discussion of world and China rhenium resource demand in 2030[J].China Mining Magazine,2014,23(9):9-11.
[16]周艳晶,李颖,柳群义,等.中国钴需求趋势及供应问题浅析[J].中国矿业,2014,23(12):16-19.Zhou Y J,Li Y,Liu Q Y,et al.Analysis of cobalt demand trends and brief supply in China[J].Mining Magazine,2014,23(12):16-19.
[17]刘璇,陈其慎,张艳飞,等.中国铬需求预测及资源供应安全态势分析[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):933-943.Liu X,Chen Q S,Zhang Y F,et al.Chinese chromium demand forecasting and resource supply security[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):933-943.
[18]闫强,王安建,王高尚,等.铀矿资源概况与2030年需求预测[J].中国矿业,2011,20(2):1-5.Yan Q,Wang A J,Wang G S,et al.Survey of uranium resources and demand forecast in 2030[J].Mining Magazine,2011,20(2):1-5.
[19]李鹏远,周平,唐金荣,等.中国黄金制造业用金需求趋势预测[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1018-1029.Li P Y,Zhou P,Tang J R,et al.China gold fabrication demand prediction[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):1018-1029.
[20]张若然,陈其慎,柳群义,等.全球主要铂族金属需求预测及供需形势分析[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1018-1029.Zhang R R,Chen Q S,Liu Q Y,et al.World demand and analysis of supply and demand of platinum-group metals[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):1018-1029.
[21]高天明,陈其慎,于汶加,等.中国天然石墨未来需求与发展展望[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1059-1067.Gao T M,Chen Q S,Yu W J,et al.Projection of China’s graphite demand and development prospects[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):1059-1067.
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