计及输配电价改革的地区配电网投资能力量化分析
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摘要
输配电价改革使地区配电网的盈利模式发生变化,合理评估地区配电网的投资能力对于电网未来投资规划至关重要。为此,首先梳理计及输配电价改革的电网投资能力关键指标体系,引入固定资产、准许收入等关键指标,并基于灰色理论对指标进行预测;然后综合考虑电网的可供分配利润、折旧和外部融资,建立了地区配电网投资能力量化模型;继而考虑到指标的不确定性,对关键指标进行敏感性分析;最后将所建立的投资能力量化模型应用于某地市电力公司配电网的投资能力评估中,结果表明输配电价改革将降低地区配电网的投资能力,因此需要注重未来电网有效资产的形成,从而验证投资能力量化模型的合理性和有效性。
Power transmission and distribution price reform has change profit models of regional power grids. It is very important for future investment planning of the power grid to reasonably evaluation investment abilities of regional power grids. Therefore, this paper firstly sorts out the key index system of investment ability of the power grid considering transmission and distribution price reform, introduces key indicators such as fixed assets and permitted revenues, and makes prediction on indicators based on the grey theory. Then on the basis of comprehensively considering profit available for distribution, depreciation and external financing of the power grid, it builds the quantitative model for investment ability of the regional power grid. Due to uncertainty of the indicator, it makes sensitivity analysis of those key indicators. Finally, it applies the quantitative model in evaluating investment ability of a distribution network of one electric power company in a city. The result indicates that transmission and distribution price reform would reduce investment ability of the regional power grid, so it is required to pay attention to formation of valid assets of future power grids so as to verify reasonability and effectiveness of the quantitative model.
Power transmission and distribution price reform has change profit models of regional power grids. It is very important for future investment planning of the power grid to reasonably evaluation investment abilities of regional power grids. Therefore, this paper firstly sorts out the key index system of investment ability of the power grid considering transmission and distribution price reform, introduces key indicators such as fixed assets and permitted revenues, and makes prediction on indicators based on the grey theory. Then on the basis of comprehensively considering profit available for distribution, depreciation and external financing of the power grid, it builds the quantitative model for investment ability of the regional power grid. Due to uncertainty of the indicator, it makes sensitivity analysis of those key indicators. Finally, it applies the quantitative model in evaluating investment ability of a distribution network of one electric power company in a city. The result indicates that transmission and distribution price reform would reduce investment ability of the regional power grid, so it is required to pay attention to formation of valid assets of future power grids so as to verify reasonability and effectiveness of the quantitative model.
引文
[1] 王卫平. 基于全寿命周期成本-效益模型的增量配电网投资风险评估[J]. 广东电力,2017,30(9):45-51. WANG Weiping. Evaluation on investment risk of incremental power distribution network based on full life cycle cost and benefit model[J].Guangdong Electric Power,2017,30(9):45-51.
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[8] 张鹏飞, 柳璐, 杨卫红. 基于资产负债率的多地区电网投资能力测算方法[J]. 电力系统及其自动化学报, 2018, 30(6): 85-89. ZHANG Pengfei, LIU Lu, YANG Weihong. Assessment method for investment capacity of multi-area electric power systems based on debt-to-asset ratio[J]. Proceedings of CSU-EPSA, 2018, 30(6): 85-89.
[9] 王伟, 张粒子, 程瑜. 基于系统动力学的输电价格管制的研究[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2009,37(3): 11-15. WANG Wei, ZHANG Lizi, CHENG Yu. Research on regulation of transmission price based on system dynamics[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2009,37(3): 11-15.
[10] 蔡张花, 单立, 刘福炎,等. 基于负债率限制的电网企业投资能力研究[J]. 价值工程, 2015, 34(9): 213-214. CAI Zhanghua, SHAN Li, LIU Fuyan, et al. Investment capacity research for power grid enterprises based on debt ratio limit[J]. Value Engineering, 2015, 34(9): 213-214.
[11] 韩冬, 严正, 宋依群, 等. 基于系统动力学的智能电网动态评价方法[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2012, 36(3): 16-21. HAN Dong,YAN Zheng,SONG Yiqun,et al. Dynamic assessment method for smart grid based on system dynamics[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(3):16-21.
[12] HUNG D Q, MITHULANANTHAN N, BANSAL R C. An optimal investment planning framework for multiple distributed generation units in industrial distribution systems[J]. Applied Energy, 2014, 124: 62-72.
[13] 魏子杰. 基于灰色理论的电网投资测算方法研究及软件实现[D]. 成都:电子科技大学, 2013.
[14] 赵会茹, 符力文. 电网企业投资能力的量化研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2012(4): 191-194. ZHAO Huiru, FU Liwen. Quantitative analysis of investment capacity for electric power enterprises[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2012(4): 191-194.
[15] 吴雪峰,张焰. 电力市场下基于实物期权理论的电网投资经济评 [J]. 电网技术, 2007(增刊1): 78-80. WU Xuefeng, ZHANG Yan. Research on economic evaluation of power grid investment based on real optimal theory in electricity market[J]. Power System Technology, 2007(S1): 78-80.
[16] 张粒子, 叶红豆, 陈逍潇. 基于峰荷责任的输配电价定价方法[J].电力系统自动化, 2017, 41(14): 92-98. ZHANG Lizi, YE Hongdou,CHEN Xiaoxiao. Transmission and distribution pricing method based on peak-load pricing[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2017, 41(14): 92-98.
[17] 吴贞龙,马永碧.基于大数据的输配电价研究[J]. 电力大数据2017, 20(9):77-80. WU Zhenlong, MA Yongbi.Research on transmission and distribution price considering big data[J]. Power Systems and Big Data. 2017, 20(9):77-80.
[18] 唐开宇,刘人境,刘继涛,等.基于SD的电网公司业务预测模型研究[J].智慧电力,2018,46(5):84-90. TANG Kaiyu,LIU Renjing,LIU Jitao,et al. Study on electric power company business forecast model based on system dynamics[J].Smart Power,2018,46(5):84-90.
[2] 郑新业. 加强监管能力建设推进输配电价改革[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2016(2): 32-34. ZHENG Xinye. Strengthening the construction of supervision ability to promote the reform of electricity transmission and distribution price [J]. Price: Theory & Practice, 2016(2): 32-34.
[3] 田廓,王蔚.输配电价改革条件下的电网精准投资策略[J].智慧电力,2018,46(10):103-108. TIAN Kuo,WANG Yu.Precision investment strategy of power grid under transmission-distribution price reform[J].Smart Power,2018,46(10):103-108.
[4] 陈亦杰,刘故帅,张忠会.考虑电动汽车群和新增实体的电力市场多方交易策略研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(13):33-40. CHEN Yijie,LIU Gushuai,ZHANG Zhonghui.A study on multi-party trading strategy of electricity market considering electric vehicle group and new entity[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(13):33-40.
[5] 董红, 刘文革, 朱志芳. 输配电价改革对广州电网规划的影响及应对策略[J]. 广东电力, 2016, 29(5): 42-45. DONG Hong, LIU Wenge, ZHU Zhifang. Influence of transmission-distribution price reform on Guangzhou power grid planning and countermeasures[J]. Guangdong Electric Power, 2016, 29(5): 42-45.
[6] 潘力强, 盛鹍, 何红斌,等. 基于TOPSIS法的220 kV电网投资能力评价[J]. 现代经济信息, 2016(7): 380-383. PAN Liqiang, SHENG Kun, HE Hongbin, et al. TOPSIS-based evaluation of investment capacity for 220 kV electric power system[J]. Modern Economic Information, 2016(7): 380-383.
[7] 刘文茂, 吴建军, 杨昆. 电力市场中的市场力指标及表现形式[J]. 电网技术, 2007(增刊2): 211-214. LIU Wenmao, WU Jianjun, YANG Kun. Index system for evaluating the market power and it's representation in electricity market[J]. Power System Technology, 2007(S2): 211-214.
[8] 张鹏飞, 柳璐, 杨卫红. 基于资产负债率的多地区电网投资能力测算方法[J]. 电力系统及其自动化学报, 2018, 30(6): 85-89. ZHANG Pengfei, LIU Lu, YANG Weihong. Assessment method for investment capacity of multi-area electric power systems based on debt-to-asset ratio[J]. Proceedings of CSU-EPSA, 2018, 30(6): 85-89.
[9] 王伟, 张粒子, 程瑜. 基于系统动力学的输电价格管制的研究[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2009,37(3): 11-15. WANG Wei, ZHANG Lizi, CHENG Yu. Research on regulation of transmission price based on system dynamics[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2009,37(3): 11-15.
[10] 蔡张花, 单立, 刘福炎,等. 基于负债率限制的电网企业投资能力研究[J]. 价值工程, 2015, 34(9): 213-214. CAI Zhanghua, SHAN Li, LIU Fuyan, et al. Investment capacity research for power grid enterprises based on debt ratio limit[J]. Value Engineering, 2015, 34(9): 213-214.
[11] 韩冬, 严正, 宋依群, 等. 基于系统动力学的智能电网动态评价方法[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2012, 36(3): 16-21. HAN Dong,YAN Zheng,SONG Yiqun,et al. Dynamic assessment method for smart grid based on system dynamics[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(3):16-21.
[12] HUNG D Q, MITHULANANTHAN N, BANSAL R C. An optimal investment planning framework for multiple distributed generation units in industrial distribution systems[J]. Applied Energy, 2014, 124: 62-72.
[13] 魏子杰. 基于灰色理论的电网投资测算方法研究及软件实现[D]. 成都:电子科技大学, 2013.
[14] 赵会茹, 符力文. 电网企业投资能力的量化研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2012(4): 191-194. ZHAO Huiru, FU Liwen. Quantitative analysis of investment capacity for electric power enterprises[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2012(4): 191-194.
[15] 吴雪峰,张焰. 电力市场下基于实物期权理论的电网投资经济评 [J]. 电网技术, 2007(增刊1): 78-80. WU Xuefeng, ZHANG Yan. Research on economic evaluation of power grid investment based on real optimal theory in electricity market[J]. Power System Technology, 2007(S1): 78-80.
[16] 张粒子, 叶红豆, 陈逍潇. 基于峰荷责任的输配电价定价方法[J].电力系统自动化, 2017, 41(14): 92-98. ZHANG Lizi, YE Hongdou,CHEN Xiaoxiao. Transmission and distribution pricing method based on peak-load pricing[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2017, 41(14): 92-98.
[17] 吴贞龙,马永碧.基于大数据的输配电价研究[J]. 电力大数据2017, 20(9):77-80. WU Zhenlong, MA Yongbi.Research on transmission and distribution price considering big data[J]. Power Systems and Big Data. 2017, 20(9):77-80.
[18] 唐开宇,刘人境,刘继涛,等.基于SD的电网公司业务预测模型研究[J].智慧电力,2018,46(5):84-90. TANG Kaiyu,LIU Renjing,LIU Jitao,et al. Study on electric power company business forecast model based on system dynamics[J].Smart Power,2018,46(5):84-90.
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