气候变化适应及其影响因素研究——山东胶州湾地区居民的实证分析
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摘要
为探索气候变化感知在适应决策过程中的作用机理,本研究以深度访谈数据为基础,基于"感知—适应"分析框架,采用二元Probit模型和泊松回归模型,分析胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策和适应选择的影响因素。研究表明:胶州湾地区绝大多数居民已经感知到气候变化,半数以上居民采取了一定的适应措施,大多数居民对适应措施效果的感到满意。居民采取适应措施介于0～4项,平均为1.07项,适应措施的普及率和多样化仍有提升空间。影响胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策与适应选择的主要因素存在一定差异性,但"居民对气候变化的感知"不论是对适应决策还是对适应选择的影响都较大,其中又以"对降水变化的感知"和"对气象灾害损失的感知"最为显著。
The paper aims to explore the mechanism of perception to climate change in the adaptive decisionmaking process. Based on the in-depth interview data and the framework of"perception-adaptation", we analyzed the factors affecting climate change adaptation decision and options of residents in Jiaozhou Bay by using the binary Probit model and Poisson regression model. The results showed that the majority of residents already perceived climate change, and more than half of the residents adopted adaptation measures; most residents were satisfied with the effects of the adaptation measures; measures adopted by the residents were from 0 to 4, with an average of 1.07; there were still great gaps in the popularization and diversity of the adaptation measures. The results also showed that there were some differences among the main factors that affected adaptation decision and options in Jiaozhou Bay; however,"the perception to climate change of residents"had a great impact on both adaptation decision-making and adaptation options, among which"the perception of precipitation change"and"the perception of meteorological disaster loss"were the most significant factors.
The paper aims to explore the mechanism of perception to climate change in the adaptive decisionmaking process. Based on the in-depth interview data and the framework of"perception-adaptation", we analyzed the factors affecting climate change adaptation decision and options of residents in Jiaozhou Bay by using the binary Probit model and Poisson regression model. The results showed that the majority of residents already perceived climate change, and more than half of the residents adopted adaptation measures; most residents were satisfied with the effects of the adaptation measures; measures adopted by the residents were from 0 to 4, with an average of 1.07; there were still great gaps in the popularization and diversity of the adaptation measures. The results also showed that there were some differences among the main factors that affected adaptation decision and options in Jiaozhou Bay; however,"the perception to climate change of residents"had a great impact on both adaptation decision-making and adaptation options, among which"the perception of precipitation change"and"the perception of meteorological disaster loss"were the most significant factors.
引文
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[11]汪海欧,於琍,吕明辉,等.胶州湾地区居民对气候变化的感知与适应研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(1):157-167.
[12]王文峰.青岛市城镇化发展现状及发展趋势研究[J].青岛职业技术学院学报,2011,24(6):11-14.
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[14]汪铁丰.Probit模型的发展和演变[D].长春:东北师范大学,2008.
[15]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.天山北坡家庭牧场复合系统对极端气候的响应过程[J].生态学报,2013,33(17):5353-5362.
[16]谢宏佐.农村人口应对气候变化行动参与意愿影响因素研究——基于苏、鲁、皖的调查[J].中国人口科学,2011(6):102-108.
[17]吴先华,刘华斌,郭际,等.公众应对气象灾害风险的行为特征及其影响因素研究[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):103-108.
[18]李西良.北方草原牧户对气候变化及气象灾害的感知与适应研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院草原研究所,2013:1-31.
[19]侯向阳,韩颖.内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(10):1753-1763.
[20]Hassan R, Nhemachena C. Determinants of African farmers’strategies for adapting to climate change:Multinomial choice analysis[J].African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2008,2(1):83-104.
[21]朱月季,周德翼,游良志.非洲农户资源禀赋、内在感知对技术采纳的影响——基于埃塞俄比亚奥罗米亚州的农户调查[J].资源科学,2015,37(08):1629-1638.
[2]《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会,编著.第三次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[3]彭斯震,何霄嘉,张九天,等.中国适应气候变化政策限制、问题和建议[J].中国人口资源与环境,2015,25(9):1-7.
[4]史兴民.公众对气候变化的感知与适应行为研究进展[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(6):258-264.
[5]Temesgen T D, Rashid M H, Claudia R, et al. Determinants of farmers'choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia[J].Global Environmental Change,2009,19(2):248-255.
[6]Abid M, Scheffran1 J, Schneider U A. et al. Farmers’perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants:the case of Punjab province, Pakistan[J].Earth System Dynamic,2015,6:225-243.
[7]Solomon Addisu, Getachew Fissha, Birhanu Gediff, et al.Perception and adaptation models of climate change by the rural people of lake Tana Sub-Basin, Ethiopia[J].Environmental Systems Research,2016,5(7):1-10.
[8]吕亚荣,陈淑芬.农民对气候变化的认知及适应性行为分析[J].中国农村经济,2010(7):75-86.
[9]刘华民,王立新,杨劼,等.农牧民气候变化适应意愿及影响因素——以鄂尔多斯市乌审旗为例[J].干旱区研究, 2013,30(1):89-95.
[10]李延峰,宋秀贤,吴在兴,等.人类活动对海洋生态系统影响的空间量化评价——以莱州湾海域为例[J].海洋与湖沼,2015,46(1):133-139.
[11]汪海欧,於琍,吕明辉,等.胶州湾地区居民对气候变化的感知与适应研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(1):157-167.
[12]王文峰.青岛市城镇化发展现状及发展趋势研究[J].青岛职业技术学院学报,2011,24(6):11-14.
[13]WANG Yang-jie, HUANG Ji-kun, WANG Jin-xia. Household and Community Assets and Farmers’Adaptation to Extreme Weather Event:the Case of Drought in China[J].Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2014,13(4):687-697.
[14]汪铁丰.Probit模型的发展和演变[D].长春:东北师范大学,2008.
[15]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.天山北坡家庭牧场复合系统对极端气候的响应过程[J].生态学报,2013,33(17):5353-5362.
[16]谢宏佐.农村人口应对气候变化行动参与意愿影响因素研究——基于苏、鲁、皖的调查[J].中国人口科学,2011(6):102-108.
[17]吴先华,刘华斌,郭际,等.公众应对气象灾害风险的行为特征及其影响因素研究[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):103-108.
[18]李西良.北方草原牧户对气候变化及气象灾害的感知与适应研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院草原研究所,2013:1-31.
[19]侯向阳,韩颖.内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(10):1753-1763.
[20]Hassan R, Nhemachena C. Determinants of African farmers’strategies for adapting to climate change:Multinomial choice analysis[J].African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2008,2(1):83-104.
[21]朱月季,周德翼,游良志.非洲农户资源禀赋、内在感知对技术采纳的影响——基于埃塞俄比亚奥罗米亚州的农户调查[J].资源科学,2015,37(08):1629-1638.
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