气候和人类活动对典型岩溶地下河系统径流年际变化的影响
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摘要
为揭示气候变化与人类活动对岩溶地下河系统年径流量的影响,以南洞地下河为研究对象,利用其1972-2014年的径流量、降水量和蒸散量数据,分析其年际变化特征。研究结果表明:研究期内径流、降水和蒸散均呈现波动减少的趋势。其中流域内径流整体以0.014亿m3/a的速度减少,降水整体以3.14 mm/a的速度减少,蒸散整体以7.94 mm/a的速度减少。通过有序聚类法和Mann-Kendall法综合确定出径流、降水的突变年份为2002年、2008年。通过累积量斜率变化率比较法,定量分解了不同时期气候与人类活动对径流变化影响的贡献率:综合考虑降水和蒸散因素,以人类活动轻微的T1(1972-2002年)阶段为基准期,气候变化对径流减少的贡献率在T2(2003-2008年)、T3(2009-2014年)时期分别为-86.68%、35.92%,人类活动对径流减少的贡献率在T2、T3阶段分别为186.68%、64.08%。可见,人类活动是南洞地下河流域径流量年际变化的主导因素,其中生活、生产的直接耗水和土地利用/土地覆被变化影响下径流过程的变化,共同影响着径流年际变化。
Quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is one of challenges in hydrology and water resources researches. In order to reveal the impacts of climate change and human activities on the interannual flow of a karst subterranean river system, this study chose a big karst subterranean river in south China, Nandong subterranean river(NSR) as a research area to analyse the interannual variations of precipitation,evapotranspiration and flow based on the data of flow, evapotranspiration and precipitation of NSR from 1972 to 2014. The results indicated that precipitation, evapotranspiration and flow of NSR during the study period showed a fluctuating decline trend, in which the overall declining rates of precipitation, evapotranspiration and flow were 3.14 mm/a, 7.49 mm/a and 0.014×108 m3/a, respectively. Two inflection-point years in the variations of precipitation and flow, 2002 and 2008 were identified through the sequential clustering and Mann-Kendall test methods.The method of slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity was adopted in estimation of the contributions of climate change and human activities to the flow variations in NSR.Considering the influence of evapotranspiration in NSR, the results, with 1972-2002 as the base period, indicated less effect from human activities. The contribution rates of the climate changes to the flow changes were-86.68% in the T2 period(2003-2008), and 35.92% in the T3 period(2009-2014), while the contribution rates of human activities were 186.68% in the T2 period and 64.08% in the T3 period. Obviously, human activities were the dominant factor causing the interannual flow change in NSR catchment. Direct water consumption of production and living and the changes of flow processes under the influences of land use/land cover changes exerted a main influence on the interannual flow changes. The results can give us a better understanding of the variation characteristics under the impacts of climate change and human activities and help to reasonably regulate karst water resources.
Quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is one of challenges in hydrology and water resources researches. In order to reveal the impacts of climate change and human activities on the interannual flow of a karst subterranean river system, this study chose a big karst subterranean river in south China, Nandong subterranean river(NSR) as a research area to analyse the interannual variations of precipitation,evapotranspiration and flow based on the data of flow, evapotranspiration and precipitation of NSR from 1972 to 2014. The results indicated that precipitation, evapotranspiration and flow of NSR during the study period showed a fluctuating decline trend, in which the overall declining rates of precipitation, evapotranspiration and flow were 3.14 mm/a, 7.49 mm/a and 0.014×108 m3/a, respectively. Two inflection-point years in the variations of precipitation and flow, 2002 and 2008 were identified through the sequential clustering and Mann-Kendall test methods.The method of slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity was adopted in estimation of the contributions of climate change and human activities to the flow variations in NSR.Considering the influence of evapotranspiration in NSR, the results, with 1972-2002 as the base period, indicated less effect from human activities. The contribution rates of the climate changes to the flow changes were-86.68% in the T2 period(2003-2008), and 35.92% in the T3 period(2009-2014), while the contribution rates of human activities were 186.68% in the T2 period and 64.08% in the T3 period. Obviously, human activities were the dominant factor causing the interannual flow change in NSR catchment. Direct water consumption of production and living and the changes of flow processes under the influences of land use/land cover changes exerted a main influence on the interannual flow changes. The results can give us a better understanding of the variation characteristics under the impacts of climate change and human activities and help to reasonably regulate karst water resources.
引文
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[25]黄嘉佑,李庆祥.气象数据统计分析方法.北京:气象出版社,2015:49-69.[HUANG J Y,LI Q X.Meteorological Data Statistical and Analysis Method.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2015:49-69.]
[26]李丽娟,姜德娟,李九一,等.土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展.自然资源学报,2007,22(2):211-224.[LI LJ,JIANG D J,LI J Y,et al.Advances in hydrological response to land use/land cover change.Journal of Natural Resources,2007,22(2):211-224.]
[27]戴明宏,张军以,王腊春,等.岩溶地区土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展.生态科学,2015,34(3):189-196.[DAI M H,ZHANG J Y,WANG L C,et al.A review on impacts of land use/land cover change on water resources in karst areas.Ecological Science,2015,34(3):189-196.]
[28]邓树斌.ENVI遥感图像处理方法.北京:科学出版社,2010.[DENG S B.ENVI Remote Sensing Image Processing Method.Beijing:Science Rress,2010.]
[29]王宇,张华,张贵.云南省石漠化调查及治理综述.中国岩溶,2016,35(5):486-496.[WANG Y,ZHANG H,ZHANGG,et al.Review of the investigation and integrated renovation on rocky desertification in Yunnan province,China.Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(5):486-496.]
[30]蒋忠诚,罗为群,童立强,等.21世纪西南岩溶石漠化演变特点及影响因素.中国岩溶,2016,35(5):461-468.[JI-ANG Z C,LUO W Q,TONG L Q,et al.Evolution features of rocky desertification and influence factors in karst areas of Southwest China in the 21thcentury.Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(5):461-468.]
[31]李运良.蒙自年鉴.德宏:德宏民族出版社,2015.[LI Y L.Mengzi Yearbook.Dehong:Dehong National Press,2015.]
[32]付奔,胡关东,杨帆,等.云南干旱“常态化”的分析.水文,2014,34(4):82-85.[FU B,HU G D,YANG F,et al.Analysis of drought normalization in Yunnan province.Journal of China Hydrology,2014,34(4):82-85.]
[2]李峰平,章光新,董李勤.气候变化对水循环与水资源的影响研究综述.地理科学,2013,33(4):457-464.[LI F P,ZHANG G X,DONG L Q.Studies for impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(4):457-464.]
[3]王随继,闫云霞,颜明,等.皇甫川流域降水和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率分析:累积量斜率变化率比较方法的提出及应用.地理学报,2012,67(3):388-397.[WANG S J,YAN Y X,YAN M,et al.Contributions of precipitation and human activities to the runoff change of the Huangfuchuan Drainage Basin:Application of comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity.Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(3):388-397.]
[4]董磊华,熊立华,于坤霞,等.气候变化与人类活动对水文影响的研究进展.水科学进展,2012,23(2):278-285.[DONG L H,XIONG L H,YU K X,et al.Research advances in effects of climate change and human activities on hydrology.Advances in Water Science,2012,23(2):278-285.]
[5]王彦君,王随继,苏腾.降水和人类活动对松花江径流量变化的贡献率.自然资源学报,2015,30(2):304-314.[WANG Y J,WANG S J,SU T.Contributions of precipitation and human activities to runoff change in the Songhua River Basin.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(2):304-314.]
[6]赵安周,赵玉玲,刘宪锋,等.气候变化和人类活动对渭河流域蓝水绿水影响研.地理科学,2016,36(4):571-579.[ZHAO A Z,ZHAO Y L,LIU X F,et al.Impact of human activities and climate variability on green and blue water resources in the Weihe River Basin of Northwest China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(4):571-579.]
[7]VOROSMARTY C J,GREEN P,SALISBURY J.Global water resources:Vulnerability from climate change and population growth.Science,2000,289(5477):284-288.
[8]LI Z W,XU X L,YU B F,et al.Quantifying the impacts of climate and human activities on water and sediment discharge in a karst region of Southwest China.Journal of Hydrology,2016,542:836-849.
[9]BATOOL A,AMIR A K,AMIN A,et al.Quantifying anthropogenic stress on groundwater resources.Scientific Report,2017,7(1):1-9.
[10]徐森,狄崇利,李思亮.典型喀斯特流域降水与径流特征分析及径流年际变化的影响因素贡献分解.第四纪研究,2017,37(6):1238-1250.[XU S,DI C L,LI S L.Analysis of characteristics of precipitation and runoff in the typical karst catchment and contribution decomposition on influencing factors of interannual runoff variation.Quaternary Sciences,2017,37(6):1238-1250.]
[11]CHOU V T.Applied Hydrology.New York:McGraw-Hill Higher Education,1988.
[12]袁道先.中国岩溶学.北京:地质出版社,1994.[YUAN D X.Karstology in China.Beijing:Geological Press,1994.]
[13]袁道先.对南方岩溶石山地区地下水资源生态环境地质调查的一些意见.中国岩溶,2000,19(2):103-108.[YUAND X.Aspects on the new round land and resources survey in karst rock desertification areas of South China.Carsologica Sinica,2000,19(2):103-108.]
[14]李小雁,马育军.地球关键带科学与水文土壤学研究进展.北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2016,52(6):731-737.[LI X Y,MA Y J.Advances in earth's critical zone science and hydropedology.Journal of Beijing Normal University:Natural Sciences,2016,52(6):731-737.]
[15]王随继,李玲,颜明.气候和人类活动对黄河中游区间产流量变化的贡献率.地理研究,2013,32(3):395-402.[WANG S J,LI L,YAN M.The contributions of climate change and human activities to the runoff yield changes in the middle Yellow River Basin.Geographical Research,2013,32(3):395-402.]
[16]康彦仁.云南南洞地下河系统及水资源开发利用.中国岩溶,1993,12(4):307-318.[KANG Y R.Water resource development of Nandong subterranean stream system Yunnan province.Carsologica Sinica,1993,12(4):307-318.]
[17]马祖陆.云南南洞地下河流域地貌特征及地下河发育演化的初步研究.中国岩溶,1993,12(3):92-102.[MA Z L.Preliminary study on the geomorphology and its evolution of Nandong River Basin,Yunnan province.Carsologica Sinica,1993,12(3):92-102.]
[18]赵一,李衍青,覃星铭,等.南洞地下河岩溶管道展布及结构特征的示踪试验解.中国岩溶,2017,36(2):226-233.[ZHAO Y,LI Y Q,QIN X M,et al.Tracer tests on distribution and structural characteristics of karst channels in Nandong underground river drainage.Carsologica Sinica,2017,36(2):226-233.]
[19]覃星铭,蒋忠诚,何丙辉,等.南洞流域东部重点区石漠化现状及治理对策.中国岩溶,2014,33(4):456-463.[QIN XM,JIANG Z C,HE B H,et al.Current status and treatment of rocky desertification in key eastern areas of the Nandong subterranean river system.Carsologica Sinica,2014,33(4):456-463.]
[20]JIANG Y J,WU X,CHRIS G,et al.Natural and anthropogenic factors affecting the groundwater quality in the Nandong karst underground river system in Yunan,China.Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,2009,109(1):49-61.
[21]覃星铭,蒋忠诚,蓝芙宁,等.南洞地下河月径流时间序列的混沌特征及预测.中国岩溶,2015,34(4):341-347.[QINX M,JIANG Z C,LAN F N,et al.Chaos analysis and prediction of monthly runoff time series in the Nandong subterranean river.Carsologica Sinica,2015,34(4):341-347.]
[22]罗书文,黄保健,李成展,等.南洞地下河水文地球化学特征及径流量识别.中国农村水利水电,2016,(2):82-86.[LUO S W,HUANG B J,LI C Z,et al.Research on hydro-geochemical characteristics and identification runoff of Nandong underground river.China Rural Water and Hydropower,2016,(2):82-86.]
[23]莫美仙.云南南洞地下河系统边界及结构特征研究.昆明:昆明理工大学,2017.[MO M X.Research on the boundary and structural ccharacteristics of Nandong underground river system in Yunnan.Kunming:Kunming University of Science and Technology,2017.]
[24]袁满,王文圣,叶濒璘.有序聚类分析法的改进及其在水文序列突变点识别中的应用.水文,2017,37(5):8-11.[YU-AN M,WANG W S,YE B L.Improvement of sequential clustering method and its application to diagnose jump points of hydrological series.Jouranal of China Hydrology,2017,37(5):8-11.]
[25]黄嘉佑,李庆祥.气象数据统计分析方法.北京:气象出版社,2015:49-69.[HUANG J Y,LI Q X.Meteorological Data Statistical and Analysis Method.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2015:49-69.]
[26]李丽娟,姜德娟,李九一,等.土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展.自然资源学报,2007,22(2):211-224.[LI LJ,JIANG D J,LI J Y,et al.Advances in hydrological response to land use/land cover change.Journal of Natural Resources,2007,22(2):211-224.]
[27]戴明宏,张军以,王腊春,等.岩溶地区土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展.生态科学,2015,34(3):189-196.[DAI M H,ZHANG J Y,WANG L C,et al.A review on impacts of land use/land cover change on water resources in karst areas.Ecological Science,2015,34(3):189-196.]
[28]邓树斌.ENVI遥感图像处理方法.北京:科学出版社,2010.[DENG S B.ENVI Remote Sensing Image Processing Method.Beijing:Science Rress,2010.]
[29]王宇,张华,张贵.云南省石漠化调查及治理综述.中国岩溶,2016,35(5):486-496.[WANG Y,ZHANG H,ZHANGG,et al.Review of the investigation and integrated renovation on rocky desertification in Yunnan province,China.Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(5):486-496.]
[30]蒋忠诚,罗为群,童立强,等.21世纪西南岩溶石漠化演变特点及影响因素.中国岩溶,2016,35(5):461-468.[JI-ANG Z C,LUO W Q,TONG L Q,et al.Evolution features of rocky desertification and influence factors in karst areas of Southwest China in the 21thcentury.Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(5):461-468.]
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