1977-2017年萨吾尔山冰川变化及其对气候变化的响应
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摘要
利用1977年MSS和1989年、1998年、2006年TM及2017年OLI/TIRS遥感影像资料,通过目视解译和GIS技术,提取萨吾尔山地区五个时期的冰川信息,同时对研究区周边气温降水的趋势性和周期性进行分析,探讨该地区最近40年冰川对气候变化的响应。研究表明:(1)1977-2017年,研究区冰川总面积减小了10.51 km2,退缩45.72%,退缩速率为1.14%·a-1,且冰川处于加速退缩阶段;(2)冰川规模越小,退缩越快;(3)南坡退缩速度最快,东南坡和西南坡次之,东北坡退缩最慢,冰川退缩率在5°～40°坡度大体呈现随坡度增大而增加的趋势;(4)研究区正处于气温上升期,降水增加期,降水量增加幅度不能弥补由气温升高造成的冰川消融,引起冰川退缩速率不断加快;(5)与其他因素主导区域的冰川相比,研究区冰川退缩率较高,面积较小的冰川占比较多是形成这一结果的另一因素。
The Sawuer Mountain spans the two countries between China and Kazakhstan and is the transitional section between the Tianshan Mountains and the central Altay Mountains. This mountain range is not only the most obvious watershed for the inland and Arctic sea systems in Xinjiang, but also the highest mountain in the northernmost part of the western Junggar Basin.Muz Taw Mountain is the main peak of the Sawuer Mountain and Muz Taw Glacier in the peak is the most important tourist resource in Jimunai county. The northern slope of the study area runs through a glacier snow-fed river, the Ulejkururasu River, which is also a boundary river between China and Kazakhstan. Glaciers, as the alpine solid reservoir, whose river runoff by ablation plays a very important role in the survival and development of agriculture and livestock husbandry in the middle and lower reaches of arid regions. Meanwhile, glaciers also affect the sustainable development of ecological environment and social economy in a large extent. Therefore, it is possible to predict future changes in the glacier and the future development of the area affected by the glacier via understanding the changing trends of glaciers and their response to climate change. Based on the Landsat 1977 MSS, 1989 TM, 1998 TM, 2006 TM and 2017 OLI/TIRS remote sensing image data, the glacier information of five periods in the Uighur region was extracted by visual interpretation and GIS technology. The trend and periodicity of temperature and precipitation were analyzed to investigate the response of the glaciers to climate change in recent 40 years in the region. The results show that:(1)From 1977 to 2017, the total glacier area in the study region decreased by 10.51 km2, retreating by 45.72%, and the retreat rate was 1.14% · a-1, with the glacier retreating at an accelerating stage.(2) The smaller the glacier scale, the faster the retreat speed;(3) The south slope retreats fastest, followed by the southeast slope and the southwest slope, and the slowest retreat is in the northeast slope, and the gradient of the glacier shrinkage at 5°-40° generally shows a trend of increasing with the increase of the slope;(4) The study region is in the period of temperature rise and precipitation increase, and the increase of precipitation cannot make up for the glacier ablation caused by the temperature increase, leading to the accelerating retreating rate of glacier.(5) Compared with the glaciers dominated by other factors, the glacier retreats. More glaciers with higher retreat rates and smaller areas is another factor in forming this result.
The Sawuer Mountain spans the two countries between China and Kazakhstan and is the transitional section between the Tianshan Mountains and the central Altay Mountains. This mountain range is not only the most obvious watershed for the inland and Arctic sea systems in Xinjiang, but also the highest mountain in the northernmost part of the western Junggar Basin.Muz Taw Mountain is the main peak of the Sawuer Mountain and Muz Taw Glacier in the peak is the most important tourist resource in Jimunai county. The northern slope of the study area runs through a glacier snow-fed river, the Ulejkururasu River, which is also a boundary river between China and Kazakhstan. Glaciers, as the alpine solid reservoir, whose river runoff by ablation plays a very important role in the survival and development of agriculture and livestock husbandry in the middle and lower reaches of arid regions. Meanwhile, glaciers also affect the sustainable development of ecological environment and social economy in a large extent. Therefore, it is possible to predict future changes in the glacier and the future development of the area affected by the glacier via understanding the changing trends of glaciers and their response to climate change. Based on the Landsat 1977 MSS, 1989 TM, 1998 TM, 2006 TM and 2017 OLI/TIRS remote sensing image data, the glacier information of five periods in the Uighur region was extracted by visual interpretation and GIS technology. The trend and periodicity of temperature and precipitation were analyzed to investigate the response of the glaciers to climate change in recent 40 years in the region. The results show that:(1)From 1977 to 2017, the total glacier area in the study region decreased by 10.51 km2, retreating by 45.72%, and the retreat rate was 1.14% · a-1, with the glacier retreating at an accelerating stage.(2) The smaller the glacier scale, the faster the retreat speed;(3) The south slope retreats fastest, followed by the southeast slope and the southwest slope, and the slowest retreat is in the northeast slope, and the gradient of the glacier shrinkage at 5°-40° generally shows a trend of increasing with the increase of the slope;(4) The study region is in the period of temperature rise and precipitation increase, and the increase of precipitation cannot make up for the glacier ablation caused by the temperature increase, leading to the accelerating retreating rate of glacier.(5) Compared with the glaciers dominated by other factors, the glacier retreats. More glaciers with higher retreat rates and smaller areas is another factor in forming this result.
引文
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[2]上官东辉,刘时银,丁永建,等.玉龙喀什河源区32年来冰川变化遥感监测.地理学报,2004,59(6):855-862.[SHANGGUAN D H,LIU S Y,DING Y J,et al.Glacier changes at the head of Yurungkax River in the West Kunlun Mountains in the past 32 years.Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(6):855-862.]
[3]段建平,王丽丽,任贾文,等.近百年来中国冰川变化及其对气候变化的敏感性研究进展.地理科学进展,2009,28(2):231-237.[DUAN J P,WANG L L,REN J W,et al.Progress in glacier variations in China and its sensitivity to climatic change during the past century.Progress in Geography,2009,28(2):231-237.]
[4]王璞玉,李忠勤,李慧林.气候变暖背景下典型冰川储量变化及其特征:以天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例.自然资源学报,2011,26(7):1189-1198.[WANG P Y,LI Z Q,LI H L.Ice volume changes and their characteristics for representative glacier against the background of climatic warming:A cast study of Urumqi Glacier No.1,Tianshan,China.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(7):1189-1198.]
[5]祝合勇,杨太保,田洪阵.1973-2010年阿尔金山冰川变化.地理研究,2013,32(8):1430-1438.[ZHU H Y,YANG T B,TIAN H Z.Glacier variation in the Altun Mountains from 1973 to 2010.Geographical Research,2013,32(8):1430-1438.]
[6]何毅,杨太保,陈杰,等.1972-2013年东天山博格达峰地区冰川变化遥感监测.地理科学,2015,35(7):925-932.[HEY,YANG T B,CHEN J,et al.Remote sensing detection of glacier changes in Dong Tianshan Bogda region in 1972-2013.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(7):925-932.]
[7]李治国,姚檀栋,田立德.国内外冰川变化对水资源影响研究进展.自然资源学报,2008,23(1):1-8.[LI Z G,YAO TD,TIAN L D.Progress in the research on the impact of glacial change on water resources.Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(1):1-8.]
[8]YAO T D,THOMPSON L,YANG W,et al.Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings.Nature Climate Change,2012,2(9):663-667.
[9]SHANGGUAN D H,LIU S Y,DING Y J,et al.Characterizing the May 2015 Karayaylak Glacier surge in the eastern Pamir Plateau using remote sensing.Journal of Glaciology,2016,62(235):944-953.
[10]TIAN L D,YAO T D,GAO Y,et al.Two glaciers collapse in western Tibet.Journal of Glaciology,2016,63(237):1-4.
[11]王宗太.中国各山脉的冰川最新统计及其分布特征.干旱区地理,1988,11(3):11-17.[WANG Z T.New statistical figures and distribution feature of glaciers on the various mountains in China.Arid Land Geography,1988,11(3):11-17.]
[12]王立伦,刘潮海,康兴成,等.我国阿尔泰山现代冰川的基本特征:以哈拉斯冰川为例.冰川冻土,1983,5(4):27-38.[WANG L L,LIU C H,KANG X C,et al.Fundamental features of modern glaciers in the Altay Mountain of China:Acast study of Halasi Glacier.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1983,5(4):27-38.]
[13]尹立东.萨吾尔山地植被概况.植物生态学与地植物学丛刊,1986,10(4):316-322.[YIN L D.Vegetation of the Sawurshan Mountain.Acta Phytoecologica et Geobotanica Sinica,1986,10(4):316-322.]
[14]王高峰,张廷斌,张建平,等.遥感影像的冰川信息提取方法对比.地理空间信息,2010,8(3):43-46.[WANG G F,ZHANG T B,ZHANG J P,et al.Comparison of glacier information extraction methods based on remote sensing.Geospatial Information,2010,8(3):43-46.]
[15]姜晓艳,刘树华,马明敏,等.东北地区近百年降水时间序列变化规律的小波分析.地理研究,2009,28(2):354-362.[JIANG X Y,LIU S H,MA M M,et al.A wavelet analysis of the precipitation time series in Northeast China during the last 100 years.Geographical Research,2009,28(2):354-362.]
[16]潘雅婧,王仰麟,彭建,等.基于小波与R/S方法的汉江中下游流域降水量时间序列分析.地理研究,2012,31(5):811-820.[PAN Y J,WANG Y L,PENG J,et al.Precipition change in middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River:Based on wavelet analysis and R/S analysis.Geographical Research,2012,31(5):811-820.]
[17]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.北京:气象出版社,2007:175-181.[WEI F Y.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:175-181.]
[18]邱海军,曹明明,曾彬.基于小波分析的西安降水时间序列的变化特征.中国农业气象,2011,32(1):23-27.[QIU HJ,CAO M M,ZENG B.Wavelet analysis on the temporal series of precipitation in Xi'an.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(1):23-27.]
[19]HALL D K,BAYR K,SCHFNER W,et al.Consideration of the errors inherent in mapping historical glacier positions in Austria from ground and space(1893-2001).Remote Sensing of Environment,2003,86(4):566-577.
[20]SILVERIO W,JAQUET J M.Glacial cover mapping(1987-1996)of the Cordillera Blanca(Peru)using satellite imagery.Remote Sensing of Environment,2005,95(3):342-350.
[21]YE Q H,KANG S C,CHEN F,et al.Monitoring glacier variation on Geladandong mountain,central Tibetan Plateau,from 1969 to 2002 using remote sensing and GIS technologies.Journal of Glaciology,2006,52(179):537-545.
[22]UNFCCC.Decision 1/CP.23:The Memorandum of Understanding Agreement:WMO's Annual Statements on the State of the Climate.The twenty-three session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC;2017 Nov 6-Nov 10;Bonn,Germany.
[23]OEREMANS J.Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records.Science,2005,308(5722):675-677.
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