基于Monte Carlo模拟的河流水质评价——以温瑞塘河为例
|
摘要
基于水质评价的综合污染指数(CWQI)法和水质指标实测含量的统计分析,应用Monte Carlo模拟方法,建立了河流水质评价的Monte Carlo-CWQI耦合模型并进行实例研究.通过建立的耦合模型和温瑞塘河流域14个监测断面2004～2010年的水质监测数据,定量分析各监测断面隶属于不同污染等级的概率水平和各水质指标对水体污染的影响程度.结果表明:温瑞塘河水系水质污染十分严重,勤奋、九山、东水厂、十字河、南白象、灰桥、新桥、米筛桥、仙门、光明、郭溪、瞿溪、西岙和梧田监测断面处于重度污染的概率分别为28.50%,0.55%,92.71%,59.73%,78.85%,39.38%,78.87%,83.09%,65.32%,78.08%,0.00%,0.96%,68.09%,86.06%;处于严重污染的概率分别为71.28%,0.01%,4.33%,39.76%,21.07%,60.59%,4.42%,12.41%,11.02%,21.24%,0.00%,0.02%,1.42%,13.12%.各监测断面总氮(TN),氨氮(NH——3-N)和溶解氧(DO)的Spearman等级相关系数范围分别是0.41～0.76、0.25～0.63和0.14～0.66,是其他指标的2倍以上,表明影响该地区水质达标的主要因子是TN,NH_3-N和DO.本研究拓宽了河流水质评价的研究视角,能够为流域水环境管理提供丰富的决策依据.
Accurate evaluation of the pollution magnitude in a water body is an important premise for effective water pollution prevention and control. This study used Monte Carlo simulation method together with comprehensive water quality index(CWQI)method and statistical analysis of measured water quality parameters to assess water quality. The Wen-Rui Tang River watershed was used as the study site. Through the combined model and water quality data from 14 monitoring sites at Wen-Rui Tang River during2004 to 2010, the probability of each site for every pollution level and the influence of each water quality parameter on water pollution were quantified. The results of Monte Carlo-CWQI coupled model indicated that the water quality of Wen-Rui Tang River was highly impaired. The probabilities of the water impairments at sites of Qinfen, Jiushan, Dongshuichang, Shizihe, Nanbaixiang,Huiqiao, Xinqiao, Mishaiqiao, Xianmen, Guangming, Guoxi, Quxi, Xi-ao, and Wutian being at the heavy pollution level were28.50%, 0.55%, 92.71%, 59.73%, 78.85%, 39.38%, 78.87%, 83.09%, 65.32%, 78.08%, 0.00%, 0.96%, 68.09%, and 86.06%,respectively. The probabilities of the water impairments at these monitoring sites being worse than heavy pollution level were 71.28%, 0.01%, 4.33%, 39.76%, 21.07%, 60.59%, 4.42%, 12.41%, 11.02%, 21.24%, 0.00%, 0.02%, 1.42%, and 13.12%,respectively. The spearman rank correlation coefficient for total nitrogen(TN), ammonium-nitrogen(NH_3-N) and dissolved oxygen(DO) respectively ranged from 0.41 to 0.76, 0.25 to 0.63 and 0.14 to 0.66, which were more than twice on the values for other parameters. This result implied that TN, NH_3-N and DO were the dominant factors affecting the rate of reaching water quality standard in Wen-Rui Tang River. This investigation can broaden the viewpoints for researches and managers on river water quality evaluation and can provide abundant information for decision-making on water environment management.
Accurate evaluation of the pollution magnitude in a water body is an important premise for effective water pollution prevention and control. This study used Monte Carlo simulation method together with comprehensive water quality index(CWQI)method and statistical analysis of measured water quality parameters to assess water quality. The Wen-Rui Tang River watershed was used as the study site. Through the combined model and water quality data from 14 monitoring sites at Wen-Rui Tang River during2004 to 2010, the probability of each site for every pollution level and the influence of each water quality parameter on water pollution were quantified. The results of Monte Carlo-CWQI coupled model indicated that the water quality of Wen-Rui Tang River was highly impaired. The probabilities of the water impairments at sites of Qinfen, Jiushan, Dongshuichang, Shizihe, Nanbaixiang,Huiqiao, Xinqiao, Mishaiqiao, Xianmen, Guangming, Guoxi, Quxi, Xi-ao, and Wutian being at the heavy pollution level were28.50%, 0.55%, 92.71%, 59.73%, 78.85%, 39.38%, 78.87%, 83.09%, 65.32%, 78.08%, 0.00%, 0.96%, 68.09%, and 86.06%,respectively. The probabilities of the water impairments at these monitoring sites being worse than heavy pollution level were 71.28%, 0.01%, 4.33%, 39.76%, 21.07%, 60.59%, 4.42%, 12.41%, 11.02%, 21.24%, 0.00%, 0.02%, 1.42%, and 13.12%,respectively. The spearman rank correlation coefficient for total nitrogen(TN), ammonium-nitrogen(NH_3-N) and dissolved oxygen(DO) respectively ranged from 0.41 to 0.76, 0.25 to 0.63 and 0.14 to 0.66, which were more than twice on the values for other parameters. This result implied that TN, NH_3-N and DO were the dominant factors affecting the rate of reaching water quality standard in Wen-Rui Tang River. This investigation can broaden the viewpoints for researches and managers on river water quality evaluation and can provide abundant information for decision-making on water environment management.
引文
[1] Xia X H, Zhou J S, Yang Z F. Nitrogen contamination in the Yellow River basin of China[J]. Journal of Environmental Quality, 2002,31(3):917-925.
[2] Chang H J. Spatial analysis of water quality trends in the Han River basin, South Korea[J]. Water Research, 2008,42(13):3285-3304.
[3]于兴修,杨桂山.典型流域土地利用/覆被变化及对水质的影响-以太湖上游浙江西苕溪流域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2003,12(3):211-217.Yu X X, Yang G S. Land use/cover change of catchment and its water quality effects-A case study of Xitiaoxi Catchment in Zhejiang province[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2003,12(3):211-217.
[4]林日彭,倪兆奎,郭舒琨,等.近25年洞庭湖水质演变趋势及下降风险[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(12):4636-4643.Lin R P, Ni Z K, Guo S K, et al. The trend and downside risk of water quality evolution in Dongting Lake in recent 25years[J]. China Environmental Science,2018,38(12):4636-4643.
[5]刘琰,郑丙辉,付青,等.水污染指数法在河流水质评价中的应用研究[J].中国环境监测,2013,29(3):49-55.Liu Y, Zheng B H, Fu Q, et al. Application of water pollution index in water quality assessment of rivers[J]. Environmental Monitoring in China, 2013,29(3):49-55.
[6]薛巧英.水环境质量评价方法的比较分析[J].环境保护科学,2004,(4):64-67.Xue Q Y. Comparison and analysis of the methods on water environment quality assessment[J]. Environmental Protection Science,2004,(4):64-67.
[7]富天乙,邹志红,王晓静.基于多元统计和水质标识指数的辽阳太子河水质评价研究[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(2):473-480.Fu T Y, Zou Z H, Wang X J. Water quality assessment for Taizi River watershed in Liaoyang section based on multivariate statistical analysis and water quality identification index[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2014,34(2):473-480.
[8] Wu Z S, Wang X L, Chen Y W, et al. Assessing river water quality using water quality index in Lake Taihu Basin, China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2018,612:914-922.
[9]徐祖信.我国河流综合水质标识指数评价方法研究[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(4):482-488.Xu Z X. Comprehensive water quality identification index for environmental quality assessment of surface water[J]. Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2005,33(4):482-488.
[10]万金保,李媛媛.模糊综合评价法在鄱阳湖水质评价中的应用[J].上海环境科学,2007,26(5):215-218.Wan J B, Li Y Y. An application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to assessing the water quality of Poyang Lake[J]. Shanghai Environmental Sciences, 2007,26(5):215-218.
[11]邹志红,王学良.基于随机样本的BP模型在水质评价中的应用[J].环境工程,2007,25(1):69-71.Zou Z H, Wang X L. Application of BP modeling based-on random samples to assessment on natural water quality[J]. Environmental Engineering,2007,25(1):69-71.
[12]解莹,李叙勇,王慧亮,等.溧河流域上游地区主要河流水污染特征及评价[J].环境科学学报,2012,32(3):645-653.Xie Y,Li X Y,Wang H L, et al. Stream pollution analysis and hydrochemical assessment of the upper Luanhe River Basin[J]. Acta Scientiae Cireumstantiae, 2012,32(3):645-653.
[13]高学平,孙博闻,訾天亮,等.基于时域权重矩阵的模糊综合水质评价法及其应用[J].环境工程学报,2017,11(2):970-976.Gao X P, Sun B W, Zi T L, et al. Application of improved fuzzy comprehensive water quality assessment based on weight matrix of temporal distribution[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2012,32(3):645-653.
[14]张欣莉,丁晶,李祚泳,等.投影寻踪新算法在水质评价模型中的应用[J].中国环境科学,2000,20(2):187-189.Zhang X L, Ding J, Li Z Y, et al. Application of new projection persuit algorithm in assessing water quality[J]. China Environmental Science,2000,20(2):187-189.
[15]李祚泳,张正健.基于回归支持向量机的指标规范值的水质评价模型[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(8):1502-1508.Li Z Y, Zhang Z J. Model of water quality evaluation with normalized indexes values based on regression support vector machines[J]. China Environmental Science, 2013,33(8):1502-1508.
[16]王书转,赵先贵,肖玲.秦岭北麓区域主要河流水质分析与评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,(8):42-47.Wang S Z, Zhao X G, Xiao L. The analysis and appraisal of Mai Rivers'water quality on the north slope of Qinling Mountains[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007,(8):42-47.
[17]孙涛,张妙仙,李苗苗,等.基于对应分析法和综合污染指数法的水质评价[J].环境科学与技术,2014,37(4):185-190.Sun T, Zhang M X, Li M M, et al. River water quality evaluation based on correspondence analysis and comprehensive pollution index method[J]. Environmental Science&Technology, 2014,37(4):185-190.
[18]陈丁江,吕军,金培坚,等.非点源污染河流水环境容量的不确定性分析[J].环境科学,2010,31(5):1215-1219.Chen D J, Lu J, Jin P J, et al. Uncertainty analysis of water environmental capacity in the non-point source polluted river[J].Environmental Science, 2010,31(5):1215-1219.
[19]张应华,刘志全,李广贺,等.基于不确定性分析的健康环境风险评价[J].环境科学,2007,28(7):1409-1415.Zhang Y H, Liu Z Q, Li G H, et al. Uncertainty analysis of health risk assessment caused by benzene contamination in a contaminated site[J].Environmental Science, 2007,28(7):1409-1415.
[20] Qu C S, Sun K, Wang S R, et al. Monte Carlo simulation-based health risk assessment of heavy metal soil pollution:a case study in the Qixia mining area, China[J]. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2012,18(4):733-750.
[21]孙清展,臧淑英,张囡囡,等.基于蒙特卡罗方法的扎龙湿地水环境质量评价[J].湿地科学,2013,11(1):75-81.Sun Q Z, Zang S Y, Zhang N N, et al. Evaluation of Water Environment Quality of Zhalong Wetlands based on Monte Carlo Method[J]. Wetland Science, 2013,11(1):75-81.
[22] Signorino C S. Structure and uncertainty in discrete choice models[J].Political Analysis,2003,11(4):3 16-344
[23]杨阳,代丹,蔡怡敏,等.基于Monte Carlo模拟的土壤重金属综合风险评价与案例分析[J].环境科学,2015,36(11):4225-4231.Yang Y, Dai D, Cai Y M, et al. Comprehensive risk assessment of soil heavy metals based on Monte Carlo simulation and case study[J].Environmental Science, 2015,36(11):4225-4231.
[24]佟瑞鹏,杨校毅.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的土壤环境健康风险评价:以PAHs为例[J].环境科学,2017,38(6):2522-2529.Tong R P, Yang X Y. Environmental health risk assessment of contaminated soil based on Monte Carlo method:A case of PAHs[J].Environmental Science, 2017,38(6):2522-2529.
[25]国家环境保护总局.水和废水监测分析方法[M]. 4版.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.State Environment Protection Bureau of China. Water and wastewater monitoring and analysis method[M].(4th Edition)Beijing:China Environmental Science Press, 2002.
[26] GB3838-2002地表水环境质量标准[S].GB3838-2002 Environmental quality standards for surface water[S].
[27] Ji X L, Dahlgren R A, Zhang M H. Comparison of seven water quality assessment methods for the characterization and management of highly impaired river systems[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2016,188(1):15.
[28]王肖肖,张妙仙,徐兵兵.模糊标识指数与对应分析法在水质评价中的联合应用[J].环境科学学报,2012,32(5):1227-1235.Wang X X, Zhang M X, Xu B B. Combination and application of fuzzy identification index and correspondence analysis method inwater quality evaluation[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2012,32(5):1227-1235.
[29]金树权.水库水源地水质模拟预测与不确定性分析[D].杭州:浙江大学,2008.Jin S Q. Modeling and prediction of water quality in headwater area of reservoir and uncertainty analysis[D]. Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2008.
[30]沈晔娜,吕军,陈军华,等.水源区河流非点源污染物入河量计算的水质方程反演方法[J].环境科学,2010,31(8):1768-1774.Shen Y N, Lu J, Chen J H, et al. Inversion formula of one-dimensional water quality equation for the export loads of nonpoint sources pollution in headwater area[J]. Environmental Science, 2010,31(8):1768-1774.
[31]廖杰,王文圣,丁晶.贝叶斯公式在河流水质综合评价中的应用[J].四川师范大学学报(自然版),2007,30(4):519-522.Liao J, Wang W S, Ding J. Comprehensive assessment of water quality on main rivers in Sichuan by Bayes method[J]. Journal of Sichuan Normal University(Natural Science), 2007,30(4):519-522.
[2] Chang H J. Spatial analysis of water quality trends in the Han River basin, South Korea[J]. Water Research, 2008,42(13):3285-3304.
[3]于兴修,杨桂山.典型流域土地利用/覆被变化及对水质的影响-以太湖上游浙江西苕溪流域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2003,12(3):211-217.Yu X X, Yang G S. Land use/cover change of catchment and its water quality effects-A case study of Xitiaoxi Catchment in Zhejiang province[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2003,12(3):211-217.
[4]林日彭,倪兆奎,郭舒琨,等.近25年洞庭湖水质演变趋势及下降风险[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(12):4636-4643.Lin R P, Ni Z K, Guo S K, et al. The trend and downside risk of water quality evolution in Dongting Lake in recent 25years[J]. China Environmental Science,2018,38(12):4636-4643.
[5]刘琰,郑丙辉,付青,等.水污染指数法在河流水质评价中的应用研究[J].中国环境监测,2013,29(3):49-55.Liu Y, Zheng B H, Fu Q, et al. Application of water pollution index in water quality assessment of rivers[J]. Environmental Monitoring in China, 2013,29(3):49-55.
[6]薛巧英.水环境质量评价方法的比较分析[J].环境保护科学,2004,(4):64-67.Xue Q Y. Comparison and analysis of the methods on water environment quality assessment[J]. Environmental Protection Science,2004,(4):64-67.
[7]富天乙,邹志红,王晓静.基于多元统计和水质标识指数的辽阳太子河水质评价研究[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(2):473-480.Fu T Y, Zou Z H, Wang X J. Water quality assessment for Taizi River watershed in Liaoyang section based on multivariate statistical analysis and water quality identification index[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2014,34(2):473-480.
[8] Wu Z S, Wang X L, Chen Y W, et al. Assessing river water quality using water quality index in Lake Taihu Basin, China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2018,612:914-922.
[9]徐祖信.我国河流综合水质标识指数评价方法研究[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(4):482-488.Xu Z X. Comprehensive water quality identification index for environmental quality assessment of surface water[J]. Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2005,33(4):482-488.
[10]万金保,李媛媛.模糊综合评价法在鄱阳湖水质评价中的应用[J].上海环境科学,2007,26(5):215-218.Wan J B, Li Y Y. An application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to assessing the water quality of Poyang Lake[J]. Shanghai Environmental Sciences, 2007,26(5):215-218.
[11]邹志红,王学良.基于随机样本的BP模型在水质评价中的应用[J].环境工程,2007,25(1):69-71.Zou Z H, Wang X L. Application of BP modeling based-on random samples to assessment on natural water quality[J]. Environmental Engineering,2007,25(1):69-71.
[12]解莹,李叙勇,王慧亮,等.溧河流域上游地区主要河流水污染特征及评价[J].环境科学学报,2012,32(3):645-653.Xie Y,Li X Y,Wang H L, et al. Stream pollution analysis and hydrochemical assessment of the upper Luanhe River Basin[J]. Acta Scientiae Cireumstantiae, 2012,32(3):645-653.
[13]高学平,孙博闻,訾天亮,等.基于时域权重矩阵的模糊综合水质评价法及其应用[J].环境工程学报,2017,11(2):970-976.Gao X P, Sun B W, Zi T L, et al. Application of improved fuzzy comprehensive water quality assessment based on weight matrix of temporal distribution[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2012,32(3):645-653.
[14]张欣莉,丁晶,李祚泳,等.投影寻踪新算法在水质评价模型中的应用[J].中国环境科学,2000,20(2):187-189.Zhang X L, Ding J, Li Z Y, et al. Application of new projection persuit algorithm in assessing water quality[J]. China Environmental Science,2000,20(2):187-189.
[15]李祚泳,张正健.基于回归支持向量机的指标规范值的水质评价模型[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(8):1502-1508.Li Z Y, Zhang Z J. Model of water quality evaluation with normalized indexes values based on regression support vector machines[J]. China Environmental Science, 2013,33(8):1502-1508.
[16]王书转,赵先贵,肖玲.秦岭北麓区域主要河流水质分析与评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,(8):42-47.Wang S Z, Zhao X G, Xiao L. The analysis and appraisal of Mai Rivers'water quality on the north slope of Qinling Mountains[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007,(8):42-47.
[17]孙涛,张妙仙,李苗苗,等.基于对应分析法和综合污染指数法的水质评价[J].环境科学与技术,2014,37(4):185-190.Sun T, Zhang M X, Li M M, et al. River water quality evaluation based on correspondence analysis and comprehensive pollution index method[J]. Environmental Science&Technology, 2014,37(4):185-190.
[18]陈丁江,吕军,金培坚,等.非点源污染河流水环境容量的不确定性分析[J].环境科学,2010,31(5):1215-1219.Chen D J, Lu J, Jin P J, et al. Uncertainty analysis of water environmental capacity in the non-point source polluted river[J].Environmental Science, 2010,31(5):1215-1219.
[19]张应华,刘志全,李广贺,等.基于不确定性分析的健康环境风险评价[J].环境科学,2007,28(7):1409-1415.Zhang Y H, Liu Z Q, Li G H, et al. Uncertainty analysis of health risk assessment caused by benzene contamination in a contaminated site[J].Environmental Science, 2007,28(7):1409-1415.
[20] Qu C S, Sun K, Wang S R, et al. Monte Carlo simulation-based health risk assessment of heavy metal soil pollution:a case study in the Qixia mining area, China[J]. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2012,18(4):733-750.
[21]孙清展,臧淑英,张囡囡,等.基于蒙特卡罗方法的扎龙湿地水环境质量评价[J].湿地科学,2013,11(1):75-81.Sun Q Z, Zang S Y, Zhang N N, et al. Evaluation of Water Environment Quality of Zhalong Wetlands based on Monte Carlo Method[J]. Wetland Science, 2013,11(1):75-81.
[22] Signorino C S. Structure and uncertainty in discrete choice models[J].Political Analysis,2003,11(4):3 16-344
[23]杨阳,代丹,蔡怡敏,等.基于Monte Carlo模拟的土壤重金属综合风险评价与案例分析[J].环境科学,2015,36(11):4225-4231.Yang Y, Dai D, Cai Y M, et al. Comprehensive risk assessment of soil heavy metals based on Monte Carlo simulation and case study[J].Environmental Science, 2015,36(11):4225-4231.
[24]佟瑞鹏,杨校毅.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的土壤环境健康风险评价:以PAHs为例[J].环境科学,2017,38(6):2522-2529.Tong R P, Yang X Y. Environmental health risk assessment of contaminated soil based on Monte Carlo method:A case of PAHs[J].Environmental Science, 2017,38(6):2522-2529.
[25]国家环境保护总局.水和废水监测分析方法[M]. 4版.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.State Environment Protection Bureau of China. Water and wastewater monitoring and analysis method[M].(4th Edition)Beijing:China Environmental Science Press, 2002.
[26] GB3838-2002地表水环境质量标准[S].GB3838-2002 Environmental quality standards for surface water[S].
[27] Ji X L, Dahlgren R A, Zhang M H. Comparison of seven water quality assessment methods for the characterization and management of highly impaired river systems[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2016,188(1):15.
[28]王肖肖,张妙仙,徐兵兵.模糊标识指数与对应分析法在水质评价中的联合应用[J].环境科学学报,2012,32(5):1227-1235.Wang X X, Zhang M X, Xu B B. Combination and application of fuzzy identification index and correspondence analysis method inwater quality evaluation[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2012,32(5):1227-1235.
[29]金树权.水库水源地水质模拟预测与不确定性分析[D].杭州:浙江大学,2008.Jin S Q. Modeling and prediction of water quality in headwater area of reservoir and uncertainty analysis[D]. Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2008.
[30]沈晔娜,吕军,陈军华,等.水源区河流非点源污染物入河量计算的水质方程反演方法[J].环境科学,2010,31(8):1768-1774.Shen Y N, Lu J, Chen J H, et al. Inversion formula of one-dimensional water quality equation for the export loads of nonpoint sources pollution in headwater area[J]. Environmental Science, 2010,31(8):1768-1774.
[31]廖杰,王文圣,丁晶.贝叶斯公式在河流水质综合评价中的应用[J].四川师范大学学报(自然版),2007,30(4):519-522.Liao J, Wang W S, Ding J. Comprehensive assessment of water quality on main rivers in Sichuan by Bayes method[J]. Journal of Sichuan Normal University(Natural Science), 2007,30(4):519-522.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |