官方媒体参与下不同风险感知群体竞争模型及其演化规律
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摘要
为识别公众风险感知的演化规律和官方媒体参与的作用机制,首先,根据公众的行为表现划分不同风险感知群体,并分析群体间的相互竞争和官方媒体的扰动作用;然后,通过扩展Lotka-Volterra模型建立群体间的相互竞争模型;在此基础上,通过推导模型平衡点及其稳定性分析模型演化规律;最后,运用数值仿真考查了官方媒体的参与对模型演化的影响。研究结果表明:模型演化具有3种结果情景,官方媒体参与能够显著改变模型演化的速度和结果。
It is of great significance to identify the evolution law of public risk perception and the mechanism of participation of official media in order to maintain the response order and implementation of plans. Firstly,groups with different risk perception are divided according to public behavior,and the competition between different groups and the disturbance of official media are analyzed. Then,a mutual competition model is established through extending the Lotka-Volterra model between groups. Further,the model equilibrium point and its stability of are derived to analyze the evolution law of this model. Finally,numerical simulation is conducted to examine the effect of the participation of official media on the evolution of the proposed model evolution. The results show that there are three scenarios of evolution results of the model,and the participation of official media can significantly change evolution speed and result of the model.
It is of great significance to identify the evolution law of public risk perception and the mechanism of participation of official media in order to maintain the response order and implementation of plans. Firstly,groups with different risk perception are divided according to public behavior,and the competition between different groups and the disturbance of official media are analyzed. Then,a mutual competition model is established through extending the Lotka-Volterra model between groups. Further,the model equilibrium point and its stability of are derived to analyze the evolution law of this model. Finally,numerical simulation is conducted to examine the effect of the participation of official media on the evolution of the proposed model evolution. The results show that there are three scenarios of evolution results of the model,and the participation of official media can significantly change evolution speed and result of the model.
引文
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[15]PINHEIRO S.Optimal harvesting for a logistic growth model with predation and a constant elasticity of variance[J].Annals of Operations Research,2018,260(1-2):461-480.
[16]王进良,张令元.三种竞争种群的古典Gause-Lotka-Volterra系统[J].生物数学学报,1995,10(4);164-173.WANG Jinliang,ZHANG Lingyuan.The classic Gause-Lotka-Volterra system of competition among three species[J].Journal of Biomathematics,1995,10(4):164-173.
[2]王治莹,岳朝龙.舆情传播中考虑公众风险感知的多资源流应急优化调度[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(6):115-123.WANG Zhiying,YUE Chaolong.Emergency optimal scheduling of multi-resource flow considering the public’s risk perception in public opinion propagation[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2016,24(6):115-123.
[3]ZHAO L,CUI H,QIU X,et al.SIR rumor spreading model in the new media age[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2013,392(4):995-1003.
[4]GIERLACH E,BELSHER B E,BEUTLER L E.Cross-cultural differences in risk perceptions of disasters[J].Risk Analysis,2010,30(10):1539-1549.
[5]WEI J,WANG F,ZHAO D.A risk perception model:Simulating public response to news reports in China[J].Information Research,2012,17(2):411-436.
[6]马颖,张园园,宋文广.食品行业突发事件风险感知的传染病模型研究[J].科研管理,2013,34(9):123-130.MA Ying,ZHANG Yuanyuan,SONG Wenguang.Research on epidemic model of emergency events risk perception in food industry[J].Science Research Management,2013,34(9):123-130.
[7]钟慧玲,李伟,张冠湘.“邻避”冲突事件网络舆情演化研究[J].情报杂志,2016,35(3):111-117.ZHONG Huiling,LI Wei,ZHANG Guanxiang.Research on the evolution of internet public opinion for“NIMBY”conflict event[J].Journal of Intelligence,2016,35(3):111-117.
[8]王旭坪,杨相英,杨挺,等.动态路况下考虑决策者风险感知的地震物资调配动力学模型[J].系统管理学报,2015,24(2):174-184.WANG Xuping,YANG Xiangying,YANG Ting,et al.System dynamic model of earthquake material allocation considering decisionmakers’psychological risk perception and dynamic traffic[J].Journal of Systems and Management,2015,24(2):174-184.
[9]DASH N,GLADWIN H.Evacuation decision making and behavioral responses:Individual and household[J].Natural Hazards Review,2007,8(3):69-77.
[10]SUDO A,YAMAUCHI T.Risk cognition and risk behaviors concerning sexual victimization in female undergraduates[J].Personality and Individual Differences,2010,49(1):13-18.
[11]成俊会,赵金楼.基于信息风险感知的社交网络舆情传播模型研究[J].情报杂志,2015,34(1):134-138.CHENG Junhui,ZHAO Jinlou.A public opinion dissemination model on social networks based on perception of risks[J].Journal of Intelligence,2015,34(1):134-138.
[12]NORDFJRN T,RUNDMO T.Personality,risk cognitions and motivation related to demand of risk mitigation in ransport among Norwegians[J].Safety science,2015(73):15-22.
[13]HUNG H C,CHIU Y C,HUANG H C,et al.An enhanced application of Lotka-Volterra model to forecast the sales of two competing retail formats[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2017(109):325-334.
[14]兰月新,夏一雪,刘冰月,等.面向舆情大数据的网民情绪演化机理及趋势预测研究[J].情报杂志,2017,36(11):134-140.LAN Yuexin,XIA Yixue,LIU Bingyue,et al.Research on the evolution mechanism and trend prediction of netizens for public opinion big data[J].Journal of Intelligence,2017,36(11):134-140.
[15]PINHEIRO S.Optimal harvesting for a logistic growth model with predation and a constant elasticity of variance[J].Annals of Operations Research,2018,260(1-2):461-480.
[16]王进良,张令元.三种竞争种群的古典Gause-Lotka-Volterra系统[J].生物数学学报,1995,10(4);164-173.WANG Jinliang,ZHANG Lingyuan.The classic Gause-Lotka-Volterra system of competition among three species[J].Journal of Biomathematics,1995,10(4):164-173.
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