消费者后悔预期对IR技术创新策略的影响
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摘要
运用博弈论研究了消费者后悔预期(AR)如何影响独立再制造商(IR)的技术创新决策。在推导消费者需求函数的基础上分别构建并求解了无AR无创新(NARNX)、无AR有创新(NARX)、有AR无创新(ARNX)、有AR有创新(ARX)四个模型,并通过理论分析及数值仿真对结果进行了分析。研究表明:均衡技术创新水平及再制品需求与消费者后悔预期敏感度正相关;OEM偏好于NARNX模式,而IR的模式偏好为ARX>{ARNX,NARX}>NARNX;当消费者异质性不高时,后悔预期有助于提高供应链总利润和绿色消费者剩余,总消费者剩余和社会福利与后悔预期的关系取决于再制品期望估值的大小。
Game theory is used to study how anticipated regret(AR) of customers influences the IR(Independent Remanufacturer)'s technology innovation strategy.Based on the derivation of the consumers demand function,four models,namely no-AR-no-innovation(NARNX),no-AR-innovation(NARX),AR-no-innovation(ARNX)and AR-innovation(ARX) were built and solved respectively,and theoretical analysis and numerical simulation methods were used to analyze the result.The result shows that the equilibrium level of technology innovation and demand of remanufactured product is always positively related to the sensitivity of anticipated regret.OEM prefers NARNX model most while the Model preference of IR is ARX>{ARNX,NARX}>NARNX.In addition,in the case of low consumer heterogeneity,anticipated regret is expected to increase the total profit of supply chain and green consumer surplus,but the relationship between total consumer surplus and social welfare and the sensitivity of anticipated regret will depend on the expected evaluation of remanufacturing product.
Game theory is used to study how anticipated regret(AR) of customers influences the IR(Independent Remanufacturer)'s technology innovation strategy.Based on the derivation of the consumers demand function,four models,namely no-AR-no-innovation(NARNX),no-AR-innovation(NARX),AR-no-innovation(ARNX)and AR-innovation(ARX) were built and solved respectively,and theoretical analysis and numerical simulation methods were used to analyze the result.The result shows that the equilibrium level of technology innovation and demand of remanufactured product is always positively related to the sensitivity of anticipated regret.OEM prefers NARNX model most while the Model preference of IR is ARX>{ARNX,NARX}>NARNX.In addition,in the case of low consumer heterogeneity,anticipated regret is expected to increase the total profit of supply chain and green consumer surplus,but the relationship between total consumer surplus and social welfare and the sensitivity of anticipated regret will depend on the expected evaluation of remanufacturing product.
引文
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[18] Bell D E.Regret in Decision Making Under Uncertainty[J].Operations Research,1982,30(5):961-981.
[19] Simonson I.The Influence of Anticipating Regret and Responsibility on Purchase Decisions[J].Journal of Consumer Research,1992,19(6):105-118.
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[22] Irons B,Hepburn C.Regret Theory and the Tyranny of Choice[J].Economic Record,2007,83(261):191-203.
[23] 银成钺,于洪彦.预期后悔对消费者冲动性购买行为的影响研究[J].管理评论,2009,21(12):71-79.
[24] Syam N,Krishnamurthy P,Hess J D.That is what I thought I wanted?Miswanting and regret for a standard good in a mass-customized world[J].Marketing Science,2008,27(3):379-397.
[25] Nasiry J,Popescu I.Advance selling when consumers regret[J].Management Science,2012,58(6):1160-1177.
[26] Jiang B,Narasimhan C,Turut O.Anticipated Regret and Product Innovation[J].Management Science,2016,62(1):1-16.
(1)限于篇幅,本文所有命题与推论的证明过程均省略。若读者需要可直接与作者联系。
[2] 陈海威.再制造产业:概念、问题与发展对策[J].经济理论与经济管理,2007,27(6):57-60.
[3] Savaskan R C,Bhattacharya S,Wassenhove L V.Closed-loop supply chain models with product remanufacturing[J].Management Science,2004,50(2):239-253.
[4] 聂佳佳,熊中楷.信息分享模式对第三方负责回收闭环供应链的影响[J].管理工程学报,2011,25(2):74-81.
[5] 熊中楷,王凯,熊榆.制造商作为再制造商的经销商的合作模式研究[J].管理工程学报,2011,25(3):189-193.
[6] 中国机械商贸网.卡特彼勒:大力开拓可持续性发展的再制造[EB/OL].(2014-06-30) http:// news.21-sun.com/detail/2014/06/2014063010443938.shtml.
[7] 工程机械编辑部.工程机械再制造的产业化道路—以卡特彼勒为例[J].工程机械,2009,40(9):81-83.
[8] 陕西日报.三一工程机械整机与零部件再制造基地开工[EB/OL].(2011-11-11) http://www.chinaforklift.com/news/detail/201111/31390.html.
[9] Majumder P,Groenevelt H.Competition in remanufacturing[J].Production and Operations Management,2001,10(2):125-141.
[10] Ferrer G,Swaminatha J M.Managing new and remanufactured products[J].Management Science,2006,52(1):15-26.
[11] Adem O,Eda K Z,Ali K P.Competitive Quality Choice and Remanufacturing[J].Production and Operations Management,2014,23(1):48-64.
[12] Aspremont C,Jacquemin A.Cooperative and noncooperative R&D in duopoly with spillovers[J].American Economic Review,1988,78(5):1133-1137.
[13] Kamien M,Muller E,Zang I.Research joint ventures and R&D cartels[J].American Economic Review,1992,82(5):1293-1306.
[14] Suetens S.R&D cooperation and strategic decision-making in oligopoly:An experimental economics approach[J].Experimental Economics,2006,9(2):175-176.
[15] Ge Z,Hu Q,Xia Y.Firms’ R&D Cooperation Behavior in a Supply Chain[J].Production & Operations Management,2014,23(4):599-609.
[16] 高鹏,聂佳佳,陆玉梅.研发模式对再制造闭环供应链R&D投资策略的影响[J].研究与发展管理,2016,18(2):51-62.
[17] 高鹏,杜建国,聂佳佳,等.不同权力结构对再制造供应链技术创新策略的影响[J].管理学报,2016,13(10):1563-1570.
[18] Bell D E.Regret in Decision Making Under Uncertainty[J].Operations Research,1982,30(5):961-981.
[19] Simonson I.The Influence of Anticipating Regret and Responsibility on Purchase Decisions[J].Journal of Consumer Research,1992,19(6):105-118.
[20] Zeelenberg M,Jane B,Joop V D P,et al.Consequences of Regret Aversion:Effects of Expected Feedback on Risky Decision Making[J].Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,1996,65(2):148-158
[21] Larrick R P,Boles T L.Avoiding Regret in Decisions with Feedback:A Negotiation Example[J].Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,1995,63(7):87-97
[22] Irons B,Hepburn C.Regret Theory and the Tyranny of Choice[J].Economic Record,2007,83(261):191-203.
[23] 银成钺,于洪彦.预期后悔对消费者冲动性购买行为的影响研究[J].管理评论,2009,21(12):71-79.
[24] Syam N,Krishnamurthy P,Hess J D.That is what I thought I wanted?Miswanting and regret for a standard good in a mass-customized world[J].Marketing Science,2008,27(3):379-397.
[25] Nasiry J,Popescu I.Advance selling when consumers regret[J].Management Science,2012,58(6):1160-1177.
[26] Jiang B,Narasimhan C,Turut O.Anticipated Regret and Product Innovation[J].Management Science,2016,62(1):1-16.
(1)限于篇幅,本文所有命题与推论的证明过程均省略。若读者需要可直接与作者联系。
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