陕西省设施农林用地适宜性潜力预测研究
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摘要
设施农林业是建设现代高效农林业的重点。掌握设施农林用地的潜力分布对高效农林业科学规划和合理布局具有指导意义。本研究以陕西省220个设施农林用地的地理分布点数据,结合10个生态环境因子,通过Maxent最大熵模型和ArcGIS软件的空间分析功能,对陕西省设施农林用地的适宜性潜力分布进行了预测,并分析了适宜性主导的环境因子。结果表明:①Maxent最大熵模型的预测精度较高,夜间灯光亮度、海拔、坡度、年平均降水量和年平均气温5个因子是影响设施农林适宜性潜力分布的主要环境因子;②陕西省设施农林用地的发展潜力由大到小的城市依次为渭南市、西安市、咸阳市、榆林市、汉中市、延安市、安康市、商洛市、宝鸡市、铜川市,位于关中地区的渭南市,发展潜力最大面积可达4.77×10~4 hm~2,占该市常用耕地总面积的9.4%。
As the focus of the construction of modern high-efficient agriculture and forestry, the potential distribution of facility agriculture and forestry can be a guide for its scientific planning and rational layout. Based on 220 geographical distribution sites data of facility agriculture and forestry in Shaanxi Province, together with 10 environment factors and the maximum entropy(Maxent) model and the ArcGIS spatial analysis platform, the potential distribution of facility agriculture and forestry in Shaanxi Province and its dominant environment factors were studied in this paper. The results showed that the evaluation Precision of the model is high, the night lights brightness data, elevation, slope, the average annual precipitation and the annual average temperature are the main environmental factors to affect the potential distribution of facility agriculture and forestry. The development potential of facility agriculture and forestry in Shaanxi Province is in an order of Weinan>Xi'an>Xianyang>Yulin>Hanzhong>Yan'an>Ankang>Shangluo>Baoji>Tongchuan. Among them, Weinan located in central Shaanxi Province has the greatest potential with an area of 4.77×10~4 hm~2, accounting for 9.4% of the city's total conventional arable land.
As the focus of the construction of modern high-efficient agriculture and forestry, the potential distribution of facility agriculture and forestry can be a guide for its scientific planning and rational layout. Based on 220 geographical distribution sites data of facility agriculture and forestry in Shaanxi Province, together with 10 environment factors and the maximum entropy(Maxent) model and the ArcGIS spatial analysis platform, the potential distribution of facility agriculture and forestry in Shaanxi Province and its dominant environment factors were studied in this paper. The results showed that the evaluation Precision of the model is high, the night lights brightness data, elevation, slope, the average annual precipitation and the annual average temperature are the main environmental factors to affect the potential distribution of facility agriculture and forestry. The development potential of facility agriculture and forestry in Shaanxi Province is in an order of Weinan>Xi'an>Xianyang>Yulin>Hanzhong>Yan'an>Ankang>Shangluo>Baoji>Tongchuan. Among them, Weinan located in central Shaanxi Province has the greatest potential with an area of 4.77×10~4 hm~2, accounting for 9.4% of the city's total conventional arable land.
引文
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[28]单燕,李茹,石磊,等.陕西省玉米土壤肥力与施肥效应评估[J].土壤学报,2015,52(6):1430-1437
[29]安彬,孙虎,刘宇峰,等.陕西省气候及其生产潜力时空变化特征[J].陕西师范大学学报(自科版),2014(3):103-108
[30]李鸿德,任建利,沈新元,等.陕西省设施农业发展现状及建议[J].现代农业科技,2011(9):247-250
[31]何春阳,史培军,李景刚,等.基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据和统计数据的中国大陆20世纪90年代城市化空间过程重建研究[J].科学通报,2006,51(7):856-861
[32]Jaynes E T.Information theory and statistical mechanics[J].Physical Review,1957,106(4):620
[33]Jaynes E T.Information theory and statistical mechanics.II[J].Physical Review,1957,108(2):171
[34]Jaynes E T,Bretthorst G L.Probability theory:The logic of science.2003[J].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press Google Scholar,2009
[35]Shannon C E.A mathematical theory of communication,Part I,Part II[J].Bell Syst.Tech.J.,1948,27:623-656
[36]Wiley E O,Mcnyset K M,Peterson A T,et al.Niche modeling and geographic range predictions in the marine environment using a machine-learning algorithm[J].Oceanography,2003,16(3):120-127
[37]Manel,Stéphanie,Williams,H.Ceri,Ormerod,S.J.Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology:The need to account for prevalence[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2001,38
[38]Brotons L,Thuiller W,Araújo M B,et al.Presenceabsence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability[J].Ecography,2004,27(4):437-448
[39]Mcpherson J M,Jetz W,Rogers D J.The effects of species’range sizes on the accuracy of distribution models:Ecological phenomenon or statistical artefact?[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2004,41(5):811-823
[40]Elith J,Graham C H,Anderson R P,et al.Novel methods improve prediction of species’distributions from occurrence data[J].Ecography,2006,29(2):129-151
[41]Swets J A.Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems[J].Science,1988,240(4857):1285
[42]Garcia K,Lasco R,Ines A,et al.Predicting geographic distribution and habitat suitability due to climate change of selected threatened forest tree species in the Philippines[J].Applied Geography,2013,44(4):12-22.
[43]席庆.基于GIS技术的白头叶猴潜在分布研究[D].南京:南京林业大学,2009
[44]李云光,王振华,张金珠,等.滴灌条件下液体地膜覆盖土壤保温保湿效应及棉花生长响应[J].土壤,2015(6):1170-1175
[2]范庆锋,虞娜,张玉玲,等.设施蔬菜栽培对土壤阳离子交换性能的影响[J].土壤学报,2014(5):1132-1137
[3]李静,赵庚星,李涛,等.TM影像中大棚菜地信息提取技术研究[J].水土保持学报,2004,18(1):126-129
[4]邹利东,郭航,朱秀芳,等.设施农业空间分布信息自动提取方法研究[J].遥感技术与应用,2014,29(4):669-674
[5]罗军,潘瑜春,王纪华,等.基于手持GPS的设施农业信息采集系统设计[J].微计算机信息,2007,23(32):11-13
[6]罗军,潘瑜春,王纪华,等.基于高分辨率遥感影像的设施农业资源信息采集技术研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2007,23(3):51-54.
[7]Agüera F,Aguilar F J,Aguilar M A.Using texture analysis to improve per-pixel classification of very high resolution images for mapping plastic greenhouses[J].ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing,2008,63(6):635-646
[8]Peterson A T.Predicting the geography of species invasions via ecological niche modeling[J].Quarterly Review of Biology,2003,78(4):419
[9]Kozak K H,Graham C H,Wiens J J.Integrating GIS-based environmental data into evolutionary biology[J].Trends in Ecology&Evolution,2008,23(3):141-148
[10]Cao M C,Zhou G S,Weng E S.Application and comparison of generalized models and classification and regression tree in simulating tree species distribution[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2005,25(8):2031-2040
[11]王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.相似穿孔线虫在中国的适生区预测[J].中国农业科学,2007,40(11):2502-2506
[12]Giovanelli J G R,Haddad C F B,Alexandrino J.Predicting the potential distribution of the alien invasive American bullfrog,in Brazil[J].Biological Invasions,2008,10(5):585-590
[13]Saatchi S,Buermann W,Steege H T,et al.Modeling distribution of Amazonian tree species and diversity using remote sensing measurements[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2008,112(5):2000-2017
[14]曹向锋,钱国良,胡白石,等.采用生态位模型预测黄顶菊在中国的潜在适生区[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(12):3063-3069
[15]Phillips S J,Anderson R P,Schapire R E.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3/4):231-259.
[16]Phillips S J,Dudík M.Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J].Ecography,2008,31(2):161-175
[17]Phillips S J,Dudík M,Schapire R E.A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling[C]//Proceedings of the twenty-first international conference on machine learning.ACM,2004:83
[18]Townsend Peterson A,Pape?M,Eaton M.Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling:Acomparison of GARP and Maxent[J].Ecography,2007,30(4):550-560
[19]Adhikari D,Barik S K,Upadhaya K.Habitat distribution modelling for reintroduction of Ilex khasiana,Purk.a critically endangered tree species of northeastern India[J].Ecological Engineering,2012,40(3):37-43
[20]Evangelista P H,Kumar S,Stohlgren T J,et al.Modelling invasion for a habitat generalist and a specialist plant species[J].Diversity&Distributions,2008,14(5):808-817
[21]Wang J,Ni J.Modelling the distribution of five Caragana species in temperate Northern China[J].Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2009:12-24
[22]Ming-Yang L I,Yun-Wei J U,Kumar S,et al.Modeling potential habitat for alien species of Dreissena polymorpha in the continental USA[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(9):4253-4258
[23]Ward D F.Ward DF.Modeling the potential geographic distribution of invasive ant species in New Zealand[J].Biological Invasions,2006,9(6):723-735
[24]段居琦,周广胜.中国水稻潜在分布及其气候特征[J].生态学报,2011,31(22):6659-6668
[25]何奇瑾,周广胜.我国春玉米潜在种植分布区的气候适宜性[J].生态学报,2012,32(12):3931-3939
[26]孙敬松,周广胜.利用最大熵法(MaxEnt)模拟中国冬小麦分布区的年代际动态变化[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):481-487
[27]谢佰承,杜东升,陆魁东,等.基于MaxEnt模型湖南双季稻种植气候适宜性分布研究[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(9):247-251
[28]单燕,李茹,石磊,等.陕西省玉米土壤肥力与施肥效应评估[J].土壤学报,2015,52(6):1430-1437
[29]安彬,孙虎,刘宇峰,等.陕西省气候及其生产潜力时空变化特征[J].陕西师范大学学报(自科版),2014(3):103-108
[30]李鸿德,任建利,沈新元,等.陕西省设施农业发展现状及建议[J].现代农业科技,2011(9):247-250
[31]何春阳,史培军,李景刚,等.基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据和统计数据的中国大陆20世纪90年代城市化空间过程重建研究[J].科学通报,2006,51(7):856-861
[32]Jaynes E T.Information theory and statistical mechanics[J].Physical Review,1957,106(4):620
[33]Jaynes E T.Information theory and statistical mechanics.II[J].Physical Review,1957,108(2):171
[34]Jaynes E T,Bretthorst G L.Probability theory:The logic of science.2003[J].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press Google Scholar,2009
[35]Shannon C E.A mathematical theory of communication,Part I,Part II[J].Bell Syst.Tech.J.,1948,27:623-656
[36]Wiley E O,Mcnyset K M,Peterson A T,et al.Niche modeling and geographic range predictions in the marine environment using a machine-learning algorithm[J].Oceanography,2003,16(3):120-127
[37]Manel,Stéphanie,Williams,H.Ceri,Ormerod,S.J.Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology:The need to account for prevalence[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2001,38
[38]Brotons L,Thuiller W,Araújo M B,et al.Presenceabsence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability[J].Ecography,2004,27(4):437-448
[39]Mcpherson J M,Jetz W,Rogers D J.The effects of species’range sizes on the accuracy of distribution models:Ecological phenomenon or statistical artefact?[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2004,41(5):811-823
[40]Elith J,Graham C H,Anderson R P,et al.Novel methods improve prediction of species’distributions from occurrence data[J].Ecography,2006,29(2):129-151
[41]Swets J A.Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems[J].Science,1988,240(4857):1285
[42]Garcia K,Lasco R,Ines A,et al.Predicting geographic distribution and habitat suitability due to climate change of selected threatened forest tree species in the Philippines[J].Applied Geography,2013,44(4):12-22.
[43]席庆.基于GIS技术的白头叶猴潜在分布研究[D].南京:南京林业大学,2009
[44]李云光,王振华,张金珠,等.滴灌条件下液体地膜覆盖土壤保温保湿效应及棉花生长响应[J].土壤,2015(6):1170-1175
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