女性高管影响分析师预测准确性吗?
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摘要
女性高管在我国上市公司管理层所占比例逐年上升,越来越多的公司拥有女性高管。本文以2010—2016年深市A股上市公司为研究样本,考察上市公司女性高管对分析师预测准确性的影响。研究发现上市公司女性高管的存在显著提高了分析师盈余预测准确性,且上市公司女性高管比例越高,其分析师预测准确性越高。进一步通过中介效应检验对女性高管影响分析师预测准确性的内在机理进行研究发现,女性高管通过提高信息披露质量和降低盈余波动这两个路径来提高分析师预测准确性。本文拓展了女性高管治理的经济后果与分析师预测准确性影响因素的研究,同时也为上市公司高管团队的选拔以及资本市场中分析师预测准确性的提高提供了经验证据。
The existing literature lacks a discussion on the influence of the gender characteristics of executives of listed companies on the accuracy of analyst prediction and its influencing mechanism.Based on Shenzhen's A shares listed companies during 2010—2016 sample,this paper investigates the influence of female executives of listed companies on the accuracy of analysts' forecasts.The study found that the existence of female executives in listed companies significantly improved the accuracy of analyst earnings forecast,and the higher the proportion of female executives in listed companies,the higher the accuracy of analyst forecast.Further research on the internal mechanism of female executives' influence on the accuracy of analyst prediction through the test of intermediary effect found that female executives improved the accuracy of analyst prediction by improving the quality of information disclosure and reducing earnings volatility.This paper expands the research on the economic consequences of female executive governance and the factors influencing the accuracy of analyst forecasts,and at the same time provides empirical evidence for the selection of executive teams of listed companies and the improvement of the accuracy of analyst forecasts in the capital market.
The existing literature lacks a discussion on the influence of the gender characteristics of executives of listed companies on the accuracy of analyst prediction and its influencing mechanism.Based on Shenzhen's A shares listed companies during 2010—2016 sample,this paper investigates the influence of female executives of listed companies on the accuracy of analysts' forecasts.The study found that the existence of female executives in listed companies significantly improved the accuracy of analyst earnings forecast,and the higher the proportion of female executives in listed companies,the higher the accuracy of analyst forecast.Further research on the internal mechanism of female executives' influence on the accuracy of analyst prediction through the test of intermediary effect found that female executives improved the accuracy of analyst prediction by improving the quality of information disclosure and reducing earnings volatility.This paper expands the research on the economic consequences of female executive governance and the factors influencing the accuracy of analyst forecasts,and at the same time provides empirical evidence for the selection of executive teams of listed companies and the improvement of the accuracy of analyst forecasts in the capital market.
引文
[1]NIELSEN S,HUSE M.The contribution of women on boards of directors:going beyond the surface[J].Corporate Governance:An International Review,2010,18(2):136-148.
[2]王霞,薛跃,于学强.CFO的背景特征与会计信息质量---基于中国财务重述公司的经验证据[J].财经研究,2011(9):123-133.
[3]何威凤,刘启亮.我国上市公司高管背景特征与财务重述行为研究[J].管理世界,2010(7):80-91.
[4]杜兴强,赖少娟,裴红梅.女性高管总能抑制盈余管理吗?---基于中国资本市场的经验证据[J].会计研究,2017(1):83-95.
[5]祝继高,叶康涛,严冬.女性董事与企业投资行为:基于金融危机视角[J].财贸经济,2012(4):45-55.
[6]李小荣,刘行,CEO vs CFO:性别与股价崩盘风险[J].世界经济,2012(12):102-129.
[7]任颋,王峥.女性参与高管团队对企业绩效的影响:基于中国民营企业的实证研究[J].南开管理评论,2010(5):81-91.
[8]EAGLY A H,JOHNSON B T.Gender and leadership style:a meta-analysis[J].Psychological Bulletin,1990,108(2):233-256.
[9]IBRAHIM N A,ANGELIDIS J,TOMIC I M.Managers’attitudes toward codes of ethics:are there gender differences?[J].Journal of Business Ethics,2009,90(3):343-353.
[10]NELNODDING.Caring:a feminine approach to ethics and moral education[M].[S.l.]:University of California Press,1984,47(2):1-27.
[11]JOHNSON J E V,POWELL P L.Decision making,risk and gender:are Managers Different?[J].British Journal of Management,1994,5(2):123-135.
[12]SRINIDHI B,GUL F A,TSUI J.Female directors and earnings quality[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2011,28(5):1610-1644.
[13]GUL F,SRINIDHI B,NG A C.Does board gender diversity improve the information of stock prices[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2011,51(3):314-338.
[14]况学文,陈俊.董事会性别多元化、管理者权力与审计需求[J].南开管理评论,2011(6):91-102.
[15]周泽将,修宗峰.女性高管能降低盈余管理程度吗?---基于中国资本市场的经验证据[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2014(5):150-160.
[16]路军.女性高管抑制上市公司违规了吗?---来自中国资本市场的经验证据[J].中国经济问题,2015(5):66-81.
[17]FRANCIS B,HASAN I,PARK J C,et al.Gender differences in financial reporting decision making:evidence from accounting conservatism[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2015,32(3):1285-1318.
[18]周泽将,刘中燕.CEO vs CFO:女性高管能否抑制财务舞弊行为[J].上海财经大学学报,2016(2):50-62.
[19]李世刚.女性高管、过度投资与企业价值---来自中国资本市场的经验证据[J].经济管理,2013(7):74-84.
[20]MARTIN A D,NISHIKAWA T,WILLIAMS MA.CEO gender:effects on valuation and risk[J].Quarterly Journal of Finance and Accounting,2009,48(3):23-40.
[21]LEVI M,LI K,ZHANG F.Director gender and mergers and acquisitions[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2014,28(10):185-200.
[22]HUANG J,KISGEN D J.Gender and corporate finance[J].Journal of Financial economics,2012,22(6):102-125.
[23]王清,周泽将.女性高管与R&D投入:中国的经验证据[J].管理世界,2015(3):178-179.
[24]曾萍,邬绮虹.女性高管参与对企业技术创新的影响---基于创业板企业的实证研究[J].科学学研究,2012(5):773-781.
[25]FACCIO M,MARCHICA M T,MURA R.CEOgender,corporate risk-taking,and the efficiency of capital allocation[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2016,39(8):193-209.
[26]GILLGAN C.In a different voice[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1993:281-290.
[27]朱文莉,邓蕾.女性高管真的可以促进企业社会责任履行吗?---基于中国A股上市公司的经验证据[J].中国经济问题,2017(4):119-135.
[28]杜兴强,冯文滔.女性高管、制度环境与慈善捐赠---基于中国资本市场的经验证据[J].经济管理,2012(11):53-63.
[29]黄志忠,薛清梅,宿黎.女性董事、CEO变更与公司业绩---来自中国上市公司的证据[J].经济评论,2015(6):132-143.
[30]BAGINSKI S,JOHN P,HASSELL M.Determinants of management forecast precision[J].The Accounting Review,1997,72(2):303-312.
[31]LANG M,LINS K,MILLER D.ADRs,analysts and accuracy:does cross listing in the United States improve a firm’s information environment and increase market value?[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2003,41(2):317-345.
[32]方军雄.我国上市公司信息披露透明度与证券分析师预测[J].金融研究,2007(6):136-148.
[33]程博,潘飞.语言多样性、信息获取与分析师盈余预测质量[J].管理科学学报,2017,20(4):50-70.
[34]BYARD D,LI Y,WEINTROP J.Corporate governance and the quality of financial analysts’information[J].Journal of Accounting and Public Policy,2006,25(5):609-625.
[35]姜付秀,石贝贝,马云飙.董秘财务经历与盈余信息含量[J].管理世界,2016(9):161-171.
[36]宋乐,张然.上市公司高管证券背景影响分析师预测吗?[J].金融研究,2010(6):112-123.
[37]赵良玉,李增泉,刘军霞.管理层偏好、投资评级乐观性与私有信息获取[J].管理世界,2013(4):33-47.
[38]COHEN L,FRAZZINI A,MALLOY C J.Sell side school ties[J].The Journal of Finance,2010,65(4):1409-1437.
[39]DREBER A,JOHANNESSON M.Gender differences in deception[J].Economics Letters,2008,99(1):197-199.
[40]BUSHMAN R M,SMITH A J.Transparency,financial accounting information,and corporate governance[J].Economic Policy Review,2003,9(1):123-135.
[41]LANG M H,LUNDHOLM R J.Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior[J].The Accounting Review,1996,71(4):467-492.
[42]李丹,贾宁.盈余质量、制度环境与分析师预测[J].中国会计评论,2009(4):352-369.
[43]董望,陈俊,陈汉文.内部控制质量影响了分析师行为吗?---来自中国证券市场的经验证据[J].金融研究,2017(12):191-206.
[44]林长泉,毛新述,刘凯璇.董秘性别与信息披露质量---来自沪深A股市场的经验证据[J].金融研究,2016(9):193-205.
[45]BROCHET F,MILLER G S,SRINIVASAN S.Do analysts follow managers who switch companies?An analysis of relationships in the capital markets[J].The Accounting Review,2014,89(2):451-482.
[46]黄旭,徐朝霞,李卫民.中国上市公司高管背景特征对企业并购行为的影响研究[J].宏观经济研究,2013(10):73-85.
[47]王化成,张修平,侯粲然,等.企业战略差异与权益资本成本---基于经营风险和信息不对称的中介效应研究[J].中国软科学,2017(9):99-112.
[48]石桂峰,苏力勇,齐伟山.财务分析师盈余预测精确度决定因素的实证分析[J].财经研究,2007(5):62-71.
[49]JENNINGS J,LEE J,MATSUMOTO D A.The effect of industry co-location on analysts’information acquisition costs[J].The Accounting Review,2017,92(6):103-127.
[50]BRICKER R,PREVITS G,ROBINSON T,et al.Financial analyst assessment of company earnings quality[J].Journal of Accounting,Auditing&Finance,1995,10(3):541-554.
[51]LEE S,PANDIT S,WILLIS R.Equity method investments and sell-side analysts’information environment[J].Accounting Review,2013,88(6):2089-2115.
[52]何贤杰.信息源、信息搜寻与市场吸收效率---基于证券分析师盈利预测修正的经验证据[J].财经研究,2008(5):63-74.
[53]曾颖,陆正飞.信息披露质量与股权融资成本[J].经济研究,2006(2):69-79.
[54]EAMES M,GLOVER S.Earnings predictability and the directing of analysts’earnings forecast errors[J].The Accounting Review,2003,78(3):707-724.
[55]LENNOX C S,FRANCIS J R,WANG Z.Selection models in accounting research[J].The Accounting Review,2012,87(2):589-616.
[56]温忠麟,张雷,候杰泰.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J].心理学报,2004,36(5):614-620.
(1)光明日报:2014年/12月/7日/第008版。
(2)国泰安深交所上市公司数据库。
[2]王霞,薛跃,于学强.CFO的背景特征与会计信息质量---基于中国财务重述公司的经验证据[J].财经研究,2011(9):123-133.
[3]何威凤,刘启亮.我国上市公司高管背景特征与财务重述行为研究[J].管理世界,2010(7):80-91.
[4]杜兴强,赖少娟,裴红梅.女性高管总能抑制盈余管理吗?---基于中国资本市场的经验证据[J].会计研究,2017(1):83-95.
[5]祝继高,叶康涛,严冬.女性董事与企业投资行为:基于金融危机视角[J].财贸经济,2012(4):45-55.
[6]李小荣,刘行,CEO vs CFO:性别与股价崩盘风险[J].世界经济,2012(12):102-129.
[7]任颋,王峥.女性参与高管团队对企业绩效的影响:基于中国民营企业的实证研究[J].南开管理评论,2010(5):81-91.
[8]EAGLY A H,JOHNSON B T.Gender and leadership style:a meta-analysis[J].Psychological Bulletin,1990,108(2):233-256.
[9]IBRAHIM N A,ANGELIDIS J,TOMIC I M.Managers’attitudes toward codes of ethics:are there gender differences?[J].Journal of Business Ethics,2009,90(3):343-353.
[10]NELNODDING.Caring:a feminine approach to ethics and moral education[M].[S.l.]:University of California Press,1984,47(2):1-27.
[11]JOHNSON J E V,POWELL P L.Decision making,risk and gender:are Managers Different?[J].British Journal of Management,1994,5(2):123-135.
[12]SRINIDHI B,GUL F A,TSUI J.Female directors and earnings quality[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2011,28(5):1610-1644.
[13]GUL F,SRINIDHI B,NG A C.Does board gender diversity improve the information of stock prices[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2011,51(3):314-338.
[14]况学文,陈俊.董事会性别多元化、管理者权力与审计需求[J].南开管理评论,2011(6):91-102.
[15]周泽将,修宗峰.女性高管能降低盈余管理程度吗?---基于中国资本市场的经验证据[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2014(5):150-160.
[16]路军.女性高管抑制上市公司违规了吗?---来自中国资本市场的经验证据[J].中国经济问题,2015(5):66-81.
[17]FRANCIS B,HASAN I,PARK J C,et al.Gender differences in financial reporting decision making:evidence from accounting conservatism[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2015,32(3):1285-1318.
[18]周泽将,刘中燕.CEO vs CFO:女性高管能否抑制财务舞弊行为[J].上海财经大学学报,2016(2):50-62.
[19]李世刚.女性高管、过度投资与企业价值---来自中国资本市场的经验证据[J].经济管理,2013(7):74-84.
[20]MARTIN A D,NISHIKAWA T,WILLIAMS MA.CEO gender:effects on valuation and risk[J].Quarterly Journal of Finance and Accounting,2009,48(3):23-40.
[21]LEVI M,LI K,ZHANG F.Director gender and mergers and acquisitions[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2014,28(10):185-200.
[22]HUANG J,KISGEN D J.Gender and corporate finance[J].Journal of Financial economics,2012,22(6):102-125.
[23]王清,周泽将.女性高管与R&D投入:中国的经验证据[J].管理世界,2015(3):178-179.
[24]曾萍,邬绮虹.女性高管参与对企业技术创新的影响---基于创业板企业的实证研究[J].科学学研究,2012(5):773-781.
[25]FACCIO M,MARCHICA M T,MURA R.CEOgender,corporate risk-taking,and the efficiency of capital allocation[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2016,39(8):193-209.
[26]GILLGAN C.In a different voice[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1993:281-290.
[27]朱文莉,邓蕾.女性高管真的可以促进企业社会责任履行吗?---基于中国A股上市公司的经验证据[J].中国经济问题,2017(4):119-135.
[28]杜兴强,冯文滔.女性高管、制度环境与慈善捐赠---基于中国资本市场的经验证据[J].经济管理,2012(11):53-63.
[29]黄志忠,薛清梅,宿黎.女性董事、CEO变更与公司业绩---来自中国上市公司的证据[J].经济评论,2015(6):132-143.
[30]BAGINSKI S,JOHN P,HASSELL M.Determinants of management forecast precision[J].The Accounting Review,1997,72(2):303-312.
[31]LANG M,LINS K,MILLER D.ADRs,analysts and accuracy:does cross listing in the United States improve a firm’s information environment and increase market value?[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2003,41(2):317-345.
[32]方军雄.我国上市公司信息披露透明度与证券分析师预测[J].金融研究,2007(6):136-148.
[33]程博,潘飞.语言多样性、信息获取与分析师盈余预测质量[J].管理科学学报,2017,20(4):50-70.
[34]BYARD D,LI Y,WEINTROP J.Corporate governance and the quality of financial analysts’information[J].Journal of Accounting and Public Policy,2006,25(5):609-625.
[35]姜付秀,石贝贝,马云飙.董秘财务经历与盈余信息含量[J].管理世界,2016(9):161-171.
[36]宋乐,张然.上市公司高管证券背景影响分析师预测吗?[J].金融研究,2010(6):112-123.
[37]赵良玉,李增泉,刘军霞.管理层偏好、投资评级乐观性与私有信息获取[J].管理世界,2013(4):33-47.
[38]COHEN L,FRAZZINI A,MALLOY C J.Sell side school ties[J].The Journal of Finance,2010,65(4):1409-1437.
[39]DREBER A,JOHANNESSON M.Gender differences in deception[J].Economics Letters,2008,99(1):197-199.
[40]BUSHMAN R M,SMITH A J.Transparency,financial accounting information,and corporate governance[J].Economic Policy Review,2003,9(1):123-135.
[41]LANG M H,LUNDHOLM R J.Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior[J].The Accounting Review,1996,71(4):467-492.
[42]李丹,贾宁.盈余质量、制度环境与分析师预测[J].中国会计评论,2009(4):352-369.
[43]董望,陈俊,陈汉文.内部控制质量影响了分析师行为吗?---来自中国证券市场的经验证据[J].金融研究,2017(12):191-206.
[44]林长泉,毛新述,刘凯璇.董秘性别与信息披露质量---来自沪深A股市场的经验证据[J].金融研究,2016(9):193-205.
[45]BROCHET F,MILLER G S,SRINIVASAN S.Do analysts follow managers who switch companies?An analysis of relationships in the capital markets[J].The Accounting Review,2014,89(2):451-482.
[46]黄旭,徐朝霞,李卫民.中国上市公司高管背景特征对企业并购行为的影响研究[J].宏观经济研究,2013(10):73-85.
[47]王化成,张修平,侯粲然,等.企业战略差异与权益资本成本---基于经营风险和信息不对称的中介效应研究[J].中国软科学,2017(9):99-112.
[48]石桂峰,苏力勇,齐伟山.财务分析师盈余预测精确度决定因素的实证分析[J].财经研究,2007(5):62-71.
[49]JENNINGS J,LEE J,MATSUMOTO D A.The effect of industry co-location on analysts’information acquisition costs[J].The Accounting Review,2017,92(6):103-127.
[50]BRICKER R,PREVITS G,ROBINSON T,et al.Financial analyst assessment of company earnings quality[J].Journal of Accounting,Auditing&Finance,1995,10(3):541-554.
[51]LEE S,PANDIT S,WILLIS R.Equity method investments and sell-side analysts’information environment[J].Accounting Review,2013,88(6):2089-2115.
[52]何贤杰.信息源、信息搜寻与市场吸收效率---基于证券分析师盈利预测修正的经验证据[J].财经研究,2008(5):63-74.
[53]曾颖,陆正飞.信息披露质量与股权融资成本[J].经济研究,2006(2):69-79.
[54]EAMES M,GLOVER S.Earnings predictability and the directing of analysts’earnings forecast errors[J].The Accounting Review,2003,78(3):707-724.
[55]LENNOX C S,FRANCIS J R,WANG Z.Selection models in accounting research[J].The Accounting Review,2012,87(2):589-616.
[56]温忠麟,张雷,候杰泰.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J].心理学报,2004,36(5):614-620.
(1)光明日报:2014年/12月/7日/第008版。
(2)国泰安深交所上市公司数据库。
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