1961—2016年内蒙古雪灾时空分布特征
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摘要
雪灾对人民群众生命财产安全造成巨大的影响,研究内蒙古地区雪灾时间发生趋势和空间分布特征,可以为内蒙古地区制定雪灾防范措施提供科学依据。利用内蒙古地区1961—2016年间47个气象站点每年10月至翌年3月的逐日气温和降水量等气象资料,采用统计、筛选和普通Kriging差值方法来研究内蒙古地区雪灾时空特征,分析雪灾时空分布的成因。结果表明:(1)1961—2016年内蒙古发生雪灾次数呈增长趋势;1961—2016年内蒙古地区雪灾多集中在10月份、11月份、3月份发生。(2)内蒙古地区发生的雪灾在空间分布上呈现自西向东增多趋势;其东部地区极易发生中度和重度雪灾。内蒙古中部、东北部的低山和中山地区是雪灾发生集中的地区。(3)内蒙古地区地域广阔,东西跨度大使得雪灾时空分布受到气温、海拔、纬度及降水量等多方面因素的影响。
The snow disaster has an enormous effect on the safety of people's life and property. The study of the trend and spatial distribution of the snow disaster in Inner Mongolia can provide a scientific basis for the prevention measures of snow disaster in Inner Mongolia. Using meteorological data such as daily temperature and precipitation from 47 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from October to March of the next year from 1961 to 2016 every year. In this paper, the change trend of temperature and the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution were studied by using statistical method, screening method and ordinary kriging spatial analysis method, and analyzed the causes of the spatial and temporal distribution of snow disaster. Results show that:(1) the number of snow disasters in Inner Mongolia increased from 1961 to 2016, they were mostly concentrated in October, November and March.(2) The spatial distribution of snow disasters in Inner Mongolia shows a trend of increasing from west to east. Moderate snow disaster and severe snow disaster were very likely occurred in eastern part of Inner Mongolia. The low mountains and middle mountains areas in the central and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia are areas where snow disasters are concentrated.(3) Inner Mongolia has a vast territory and the east-west span. The spatial and temporal distribution of snow disaster was affected by many factors such as temperature, altitude, latitude and precipitation.
The snow disaster has an enormous effect on the safety of people's life and property. The study of the trend and spatial distribution of the snow disaster in Inner Mongolia can provide a scientific basis for the prevention measures of snow disaster in Inner Mongolia. Using meteorological data such as daily temperature and precipitation from 47 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from October to March of the next year from 1961 to 2016 every year. In this paper, the change trend of temperature and the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution were studied by using statistical method, screening method and ordinary kriging spatial analysis method, and analyzed the causes of the spatial and temporal distribution of snow disaster. Results show that:(1) the number of snow disasters in Inner Mongolia increased from 1961 to 2016, they were mostly concentrated in October, November and March.(2) The spatial distribution of snow disasters in Inner Mongolia shows a trend of increasing from west to east. Moderate snow disaster and severe snow disaster were very likely occurred in eastern part of Inner Mongolia. The low mountains and middle mountains areas in the central and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia are areas where snow disasters are concentrated.(3) Inner Mongolia has a vast territory and the east-west span. The spatial and temporal distribution of snow disaster was affected by many factors such as temperature, altitude, latitude and precipitation.
引文
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[14] 孙秀忠,罗勇,张霞,等.近46年来我国降雪变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(6):1594-1601.SUN Xiuzhong,LUO Yong,ZHANG Xia,et al.Analysis on snowfall change characteristic of China in recent 46 years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2010,29(6):1594-1601.(in Chinese)
[15] 李海红,李锡福,张海珍,等.中国牧区雪灾等级指标研究[J].青海气象,2006,38(1):24-27.LI Haihong,LI Xifu,ZHANG Haizhen,et al.Study on snow disaster grade indexes in Chinese pastoral areas[J].Journal of Qinghai Meteorology,2006,38(1):24-27.(in Chinese)
[16] 张涛涛,延军平,廖光明,等.近51 a青藏高原雪灾时空分布特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(1):242-245.ZHANG Taotao,YAN Junping,LIAO Guangming,et al.Spatiotemporal distribution of snow disaster on tibetan plateau in recent 51 years[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,34(1):242-245.(in Chinese)
[17] 张景雄.地理信息系统与科学[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2010:278.ZHANG Jingxiong.Geographic Information System and Science[M].Wuhan:Wuhan University Press,2010,278.(in Chinese)
[18] 汤国安,刘学军,闾国年,等.地理信息系统教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2007:291.TANG Guoan,LIU Xuejun,YAN Guonian,et al.Tutorials of Geographic Information Systems[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2007:291.(in Chinese)
[19] Esri.Understanding ordinary kriging[EB/OL].(2012-08-05).[2018-07-09].http://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/help/analysis/geostatistical-analyst/understanding-ordinary-kriging.htm
[20] 沈建国.中国气象灾害大典内蒙古卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2008(4):183.SHEN Jianguo.China Meteorological Disasters,Inner Mongolia[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008(4):183.(in Chinese)
[2] 王玮.基于遥感和GIS的青藏高原牧区积雪动态监测与雪灾预警研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2014.WANG Wei.Snow Cover Monitoring and Early Warning of Snow-caused Disaster Based on Remote Sensing and GIS Technologies in Pastoral Areas of the Tibetan Plateau[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2014.(in Chinese)
[3] 萨楚拉.内蒙古草原牧区雪灾监测与风险评价研究[D].呼和浩特:中国农业科学院,2015.SA Chula.Pastral and Grassland Snow Hazard Monitoring and Risk Assessment Research in Inner Mongolia[D].Hohhot:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2015.(in Chinese)
[4] 孟雪峰,孙永刚,云静波,等.内蒙古大雪的时空分布特征[J].内蒙古气象,2011(1):3-6.MENG Xuefeng,SUN Yonggang,YUN Jingbo,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of heavy snow in Inner Mongolia[J].Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia,2011(1):3-6.(in Chinese)
[5] 李培基.中国西部积雪变化特征[J].地理学报,1993(6):505-515.LI Peiji.Dynamic Characteristic of Snow Cover in Western China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1993(6):505-515.(in Chinese)
[6] 鲁安新,冯学智,曾群柱.我国牧区雪灾判别因子体系及分级初探[J].灾害学,1995(3):15-18.LU Anxin,FENG Xuezhi,ZENG Qunzhu.Study on the assessing parameter system and its classification of snow disaster in the pasture land of our country[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1995(3):15-18.(in Chinese)
[7] 萨楚拉,刘桂香,包刚,等.内蒙古积雪面积时空变化及其对气候响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(2):137-142.SA Chula,LIU Guixiang,BAO Gang,et al.The spatial and temporal changes of snow cover in Inner Mongolia and their response to climate[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2013,27(2):137-142.(in Chinese)
[8] 董振华,张继权,佟志军,等.锡林郭勒盟草原雪灾社会影响评价[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(2):59-68.DONG Zhenhua,ZHANG Jiquan,TONG Zhijun,et al.Social impact assessment of grassland snow disasters in XilinGol League[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2016,25(2):59-68.(in Chinese)
[9] 江毅,钱维宏.内蒙古大(暴)雪的区域特征[J].地理学报,2003,(增刊1):38-48.JIANG Yi,QIAN Weihong.Regional characteristics of heavy snowfall or snowstorm in inner mongolia[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2003(S1):38-48.(in Chinese)
[10] 孟雪峰,孙永刚,王式功,等.内蒙古大雪发生的规律及环流特征[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2012,48(5):61-70.MENG Xuefeng,SUN Yonggang,WANG Shigong,et al.Occurrence rules and circulation analysis of inner mongolia heavy snow weather[J].Journal of Lanzhou University:Natural Sciences,2012,48(5):61-70.(in Chinese)
[11] 赵霞,王平,龚亚丽,等.基于GIS的锡林郭勒盟雪灾救助区划[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(1):70-77.ZHAO Xia,WANG Ping,GONG Yali,et al.GIS based rescue regionalization of snow disaster in XiLinGol League[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2010,19(1):70-77.(in Chinese)
[12] Wang S P,Jiang F Q,Hu R J,et al.Temporal and spatial variability of extreme snowfall indices over northern Xinjiang from 1959/1960 to 2008/2009[J].Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences Discussions,2013,1(6):7059-7092.
[13] Peng S,Piao S,Ciais P,et al.Change in snow phenology and its potential feedback to temperature in the Northern Hemisphere over the last three decades[J].Environmental Research Letters,2013,8(1):1880-1885.
[14] 孙秀忠,罗勇,张霞,等.近46年来我国降雪变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(6):1594-1601.SUN Xiuzhong,LUO Yong,ZHANG Xia,et al.Analysis on snowfall change characteristic of China in recent 46 years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2010,29(6):1594-1601.(in Chinese)
[15] 李海红,李锡福,张海珍,等.中国牧区雪灾等级指标研究[J].青海气象,2006,38(1):24-27.LI Haihong,LI Xifu,ZHANG Haizhen,et al.Study on snow disaster grade indexes in Chinese pastoral areas[J].Journal of Qinghai Meteorology,2006,38(1):24-27.(in Chinese)
[16] 张涛涛,延军平,廖光明,等.近51 a青藏高原雪灾时空分布特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(1):242-245.ZHANG Taotao,YAN Junping,LIAO Guangming,et al.Spatiotemporal distribution of snow disaster on tibetan plateau in recent 51 years[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,34(1):242-245.(in Chinese)
[17] 张景雄.地理信息系统与科学[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2010:278.ZHANG Jingxiong.Geographic Information System and Science[M].Wuhan:Wuhan University Press,2010,278.(in Chinese)
[18] 汤国安,刘学军,闾国年,等.地理信息系统教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2007:291.TANG Guoan,LIU Xuejun,YAN Guonian,et al.Tutorials of Geographic Information Systems[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2007:291.(in Chinese)
[19] Esri.Understanding ordinary kriging[EB/OL].(2012-08-05).[2018-07-09].http://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/help/analysis/geostatistical-analyst/understanding-ordinary-kriging.htm
[20] 沈建国.中国气象灾害大典内蒙古卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2008(4):183.SHEN Jianguo.China Meteorological Disasters,Inner Mongolia[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008(4):183.(in Chinese)
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