基于弱HSDI与强HSDI的区域可持续性评价——以中国环渤海地区为例
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摘要
可持续性评价是可持续性科学研究的重要内容。在HDI和HSDI的基础上,构建对环境重视程度不同的弱HSDI与强HSDI评价指数,以中国环渤海地区为例,揭示区域2000-2015年可持续性基本状态与变化过程。结果表明:从基本状态来看,环渤海地区各市可持续性水平等级结构失衡,弱HSDI与强HSDI水平均呈两头小、中间大的纺锤形等级结构,但弱HSDI的等级结构失衡比强HSDI更严重,且弱、强HSDI空间格局差异较大;从变化过程来看,环渤海地区各市可持续发展步调不一致,弱HSDI与强HSDI均以显著增长趋势为主,但弱HSDI主要呈中高速增长,强HSDI主要呈中低速增长。结合评价结果,划分可持续性状态与过程矩阵,提出具有针对性的多元化策略,可为促进区域可持续发展提供决策参考。
Assessment of sustainability is an important part of sustainable scientific research.Based on HDI and HSDI, this paper constructed the weak Human Sustainable Development Index(HSDI) and strong HSDI assessment indexes with different emphases on environmental factors. Taking the Bohai Rim region in China as an example, we studied the basic state and change process of the regional sustainability from 2000 to 2015. The results are shown as follows. From the point of basic state, the hierarchy of the sustainability in the Bohai Rim was imbalanced. The level of weak HSDI and strong HSDI were both in a spindle-shaped structure with small proportions at both ends and a large proportion in the middle. The numbers of cities with weak HSDI and strong HSDI at middle level account for 59.09% and 43.18%,respectively. However, the hierarchy of weak HSDI was more imbalanced than that of strong HSDI, and the regional differences of weak and strong HSDI were obvious. In terms of the change process, the paces of the sustainable development in different cities were inconsistent.Although both the weak and strong HSDI presented a significant growth trend, the weak HSDI mainly showed medium-high speed growth, while the strong HSDI mainly showed mediumlow speed growth. The coincidence rate of weak HSDI and strong HSDI growth areas is as high as 71.79%, but there is obvious spatial dislocation in the growth rate. Based on the assessment results, cities can be classified into sustainable development state and process matrix. The cities in the four state matrices(I, II, III and IV) of sustainability were suitable for "incentive", "propelled", "control-oriented" and "supportive" sustainable development strategies successively. And the cities in the four process matrices(1, 2, 3, and 4) were suitable for sustainable development strategies of "stabilizing growth and optimizing environment", "conquering emphasis and promoting coordination", "adjusting structure and preventing risks" and "promoting reform, seeking development" successively. This study can provide decisionmaking reference for promoting regional sustainable development by proposing targeted diversification strategies.
Assessment of sustainability is an important part of sustainable scientific research.Based on HDI and HSDI, this paper constructed the weak Human Sustainable Development Index(HSDI) and strong HSDI assessment indexes with different emphases on environmental factors. Taking the Bohai Rim region in China as an example, we studied the basic state and change process of the regional sustainability from 2000 to 2015. The results are shown as follows. From the point of basic state, the hierarchy of the sustainability in the Bohai Rim was imbalanced. The level of weak HSDI and strong HSDI were both in a spindle-shaped structure with small proportions at both ends and a large proportion in the middle. The numbers of cities with weak HSDI and strong HSDI at middle level account for 59.09% and 43.18%,respectively. However, the hierarchy of weak HSDI was more imbalanced than that of strong HSDI, and the regional differences of weak and strong HSDI were obvious. In terms of the change process, the paces of the sustainable development in different cities were inconsistent.Although both the weak and strong HSDI presented a significant growth trend, the weak HSDI mainly showed medium-high speed growth, while the strong HSDI mainly showed mediumlow speed growth. The coincidence rate of weak HSDI and strong HSDI growth areas is as high as 71.79%, but there is obvious spatial dislocation in the growth rate. Based on the assessment results, cities can be classified into sustainable development state and process matrix. The cities in the four state matrices(I, II, III and IV) of sustainability were suitable for "incentive", "propelled", "control-oriented" and "supportive" sustainable development strategies successively. And the cities in the four process matrices(1, 2, 3, and 4) were suitable for sustainable development strategies of "stabilizing growth and optimizing environment", "conquering emphasis and promoting coordination", "adjusting structure and preventing risks" and "promoting reform, seeking development" successively. This study can provide decisionmaking reference for promoting regional sustainable development by proposing targeted diversification strategies.
引文
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[4]诸大建.可持续性科学:基于对象—过程—主体的分析模型.中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(7):1-9.[ZHU D J.Sustainability science:An object-process-subject analytical framework. China Population, Resources and Environment,2016, 26(7):1-9.]
[5]苏飞,应蓉蓉,张慧敏,等.可持续性科学研究热点及其知识基础:以Sustainability Science载文数据为例.生态学报,2016, 36(9):2764-2772.[SU F, YING R R, ZHANG H M, et al. Sustainability research hotspots and knowledge bases:Taking the articles in Sustainability Science as examples. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(9):2764-2772.]
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[9]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法:可持续性定量研究的新方法:以张掖地区1995年的生态足迹计算为例.生态学报, 2001, 21(9):1484-1493.[XU Z M, CHENG G D, ZHANG Z Q. Measuring sustainable development with the ecological footprint method:Take Zhangye prefecture as an example. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2001, 21(9):1484-1493.]
[10]利果,王铮.基于真实进步指标对我国可持续发展的预警评估.中国人口资源与环境, 2007, 17(4):61-65.[LI G,WANG Z. Estimates of sustainable development for China based on the genuine progress indicators. China Population,Resources and Environment, 2007, 17(4):61-65.]
[11]宋洪远,马永良.使用人类发展指数对中国城乡差距的一种估计.经济研究, 2004, 50(11):4-15.[SONG H Y, MA Y L. Measuring rual-urban disparity in China by human development index method. Economic Research Journal, 2004, 50(11):4-15.]
[12] TOGTOKH C. Time to stop celebrating the polluters. Nature, 2011, 479(7373):269.
[13] HUANG L, WU J G, YAN L J. Defining and measuring urban sustainability:A review of indicators. Landscape Ecology, 2015, 30(7):1175-1193.
[14]田辉,孙剑平,朱英明. HSDI:植入环境敏感性因素的人类可持续发展指数.中国软科学, 2007, 22(10):86-92.[TIAN H, SUN J P, ZHU Y M. HSDI:A framework of human sustainable development indicators involving environment factor. China Soft Science, 2007, 22(10):86-92.]
[15]李经纬,刘志峰,何春阳,等.基于人类可持续发展指数的中国1990-2010年人类—环境系统可持续性评价.自然资源学报, 2015, 30(7):1118-1128.[LI J W, LIU Z F, HE C Y, et al. Assessing the human-environment system sustainability in China from 1990 to 2010 based on human sustainable development index. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(7):1118-1128.]
[16] BRAVO G. The human sustainable development index:New calculations and a first critical analysis. Ecological indicators, 2014, 37(2):145-150.
[17] BRAVO G. The human sustainable development index:The 2014 update. Ecological Indicators, 2015, 50(3):258-259.
[18]王振波,方创琳,许光,等. 2014年中国城市PM_(2.5)浓度的时空变化规律.地理学报, 2015, 70(11):1720-1734.[WANG Z B, FANG C L, XU G, et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics of the PM_(2.5)in China in 2014. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(11):1720-1735.]
[19]周侃,樊杰,刘汉初.环渤海地区水污染物排放的时空格局及其驱动因素.地理科学进展, 2017, 36(2):171-181.[ZHOU K, FAN J, LIU H C. Spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of water pollutant discharge in the Bohai Rim region. Progress in Geography, 2017, 36(2):171-181.]
[20] UNDP(United Nations Development Program). China Human Development Report 2005:Development with Equity.Beijing:UNDP, 2005.
[21]杨洋,黄聪,何春阳,等.山东半岛城市群新型城镇化综合水平的时空变化.经济地理, 2017, 37(8):77-85.[YANG Y,HUANG C, HE C Y, et al. The spatiotemporal dynamics of new-type urbanization comprehensive level in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(8):77-85.]
[2] WU J G. Landscape sustainability science:Ecosystem services and human well-being in changing landscapes. Landscape Ecology, 2013, 28(6):999-1023.
[3]邬建国,郭晓川,杨稢,等.什么是可持续性科学?.应用生态学报, 2014, 25(1):1-11.[WU J G, GUO X C, YANG Y, et al. What is sustainability science?. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2014, 25(1):1-11.]
[4]诸大建.可持续性科学:基于对象—过程—主体的分析模型.中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(7):1-9.[ZHU D J.Sustainability science:An object-process-subject analytical framework. China Population, Resources and Environment,2016, 26(7):1-9.]
[5]苏飞,应蓉蓉,张慧敏,等.可持续性科学研究热点及其知识基础:以Sustainability Science载文数据为例.生态学报,2016, 36(9):2764-2772.[SU F, YING R R, ZHANG H M, et al. Sustainability research hotspots and knowledge bases:Taking the articles in Sustainability Science as examples. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(9):2764-2772.]
[6] UN. Indicators of Sustainable Development:Guidelines and Methodologies. 3rd Ed. New York:United Nations, 2007.
[7]中国科学院可持续发展战略研究组. 2015年中国可持续发展报告:重塑生态环境治理体系.北京:科学出版社,2017.[Sustainable Development Strategy Study Group of Chinese Academy of Sciences. China Sustainable Development Report 2015:Reshaping the Governance for Sustainable Development. Beijing:Science Press, 2017.]
[8]陈梦根.绿色GDP理论基础与核算思路探讨.中国人口资源与环境, 2005, 15(1):3-7.[CHEN M G. A gross economic indicator under sustainable development:Green GDP. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2005, 15(1):3-7.]
[9]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法:可持续性定量研究的新方法:以张掖地区1995年的生态足迹计算为例.生态学报, 2001, 21(9):1484-1493.[XU Z M, CHENG G D, ZHANG Z Q. Measuring sustainable development with the ecological footprint method:Take Zhangye prefecture as an example. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2001, 21(9):1484-1493.]
[10]利果,王铮.基于真实进步指标对我国可持续发展的预警评估.中国人口资源与环境, 2007, 17(4):61-65.[LI G,WANG Z. Estimates of sustainable development for China based on the genuine progress indicators. China Population,Resources and Environment, 2007, 17(4):61-65.]
[11]宋洪远,马永良.使用人类发展指数对中国城乡差距的一种估计.经济研究, 2004, 50(11):4-15.[SONG H Y, MA Y L. Measuring rual-urban disparity in China by human development index method. Economic Research Journal, 2004, 50(11):4-15.]
[12] TOGTOKH C. Time to stop celebrating the polluters. Nature, 2011, 479(7373):269.
[13] HUANG L, WU J G, YAN L J. Defining and measuring urban sustainability:A review of indicators. Landscape Ecology, 2015, 30(7):1175-1193.
[14]田辉,孙剑平,朱英明. HSDI:植入环境敏感性因素的人类可持续发展指数.中国软科学, 2007, 22(10):86-92.[TIAN H, SUN J P, ZHU Y M. HSDI:A framework of human sustainable development indicators involving environment factor. China Soft Science, 2007, 22(10):86-92.]
[15]李经纬,刘志峰,何春阳,等.基于人类可持续发展指数的中国1990-2010年人类—环境系统可持续性评价.自然资源学报, 2015, 30(7):1118-1128.[LI J W, LIU Z F, HE C Y, et al. Assessing the human-environment system sustainability in China from 1990 to 2010 based on human sustainable development index. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(7):1118-1128.]
[16] BRAVO G. The human sustainable development index:New calculations and a first critical analysis. Ecological indicators, 2014, 37(2):145-150.
[17] BRAVO G. The human sustainable development index:The 2014 update. Ecological Indicators, 2015, 50(3):258-259.
[18]王振波,方创琳,许光,等. 2014年中国城市PM_(2.5)浓度的时空变化规律.地理学报, 2015, 70(11):1720-1734.[WANG Z B, FANG C L, XU G, et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics of the PM_(2.5)in China in 2014. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(11):1720-1735.]
[19]周侃,樊杰,刘汉初.环渤海地区水污染物排放的时空格局及其驱动因素.地理科学进展, 2017, 36(2):171-181.[ZHOU K, FAN J, LIU H C. Spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of water pollutant discharge in the Bohai Rim region. Progress in Geography, 2017, 36(2):171-181.]
[20] UNDP(United Nations Development Program). China Human Development Report 2005:Development with Equity.Beijing:UNDP, 2005.
[21]杨洋,黄聪,何春阳,等.山东半岛城市群新型城镇化综合水平的时空变化.经济地理, 2017, 37(8):77-85.[YANG Y,HUANG C, HE C Y, et al. The spatiotemporal dynamics of new-type urbanization comprehensive level in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(8):77-85.]
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