基于Modflow和ARIMA模型的峰峰矿区岩溶地下水模拟及预测
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摘要
为科学有效地了解峰峰矿区岩溶地下水的均衡状态和用水规划实施后未来(2018～2025年)地下水动态变化,通过构建地下水流数值模型(visual modflow模拟程序)和ARIMA降水量预测模型(R语言软件),对研究区岩溶地下水资源量和水位动态变化进行模拟和预测。结果表明,现状开采条件下,峰峰矿区岩溶地下水多年平均补给量为8 726. 62万m~3/a,排泄量为8 937. 96万m~3/a,均衡差为-211. 34万m~3/a,处于负均衡状态。随着矿区用水规划的实施和用水结构的调整,预测2018～2025年岩溶地下水位将呈小幅度波动上升趋势,降落漏斗范围明显缩小。研究成果可为峰峰矿区地下水资源的合理开发利用提供依据和参考。
For understanding of the equilibrium of the Karst groundwater scientifically and effectively and to predict the future of groundwater dynamic change in Fengfeng mine area of Handan city,the groundwater flow numerical model and ARIMA model were established by using the Visual Modflow and R Studio. The Karst groundwater resources is simulated,and the dynamic change of Karst groundwater level is predicted. The results show that,under the current mining conditions,the average annual supply of Karst groundwater in Fengfeng mining area is 8 726. 62 × 10~4 m~3/a,the output is 8 937. 96 × 104 m3/a,and the equilibrium difference is-211. 34 × 10~4 m~3/a.With the implementation of water use planning and the change of water structure,Karst groundwater will show a small fluctuation and rise trend in the future. The results has a certain guiding significance for the rational development and utilization of groundwater resources.
For understanding of the equilibrium of the Karst groundwater scientifically and effectively and to predict the future of groundwater dynamic change in Fengfeng mine area of Handan city,the groundwater flow numerical model and ARIMA model were established by using the Visual Modflow and R Studio. The Karst groundwater resources is simulated,and the dynamic change of Karst groundwater level is predicted. The results show that,under the current mining conditions,the average annual supply of Karst groundwater in Fengfeng mining area is 8 726. 62 × 10~4 m~3/a,the output is 8 937. 96 × 104 m3/a,and the equilibrium difference is-211. 34 × 10~4 m~3/a.With the implementation of water use planning and the change of water structure,Karst groundwater will show a small fluctuation and rise trend in the future. The results has a certain guiding significance for the rational development and utilization of groundwater resources.
引文
1王庆永,贾忠华,刘晓峰,等. Visual MODFLOW及其在地下水模拟中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2007(5):90-92Wang Qingyong,Jia Zhonghua,Liu Xiaofeng,et al. Visual MODFLOW and its application in groundwater simulation[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2007(5):90-92
2 Maheswaran R,Khosa R,Gosain A. K,et al. Regional scale groundwater modelling study for Ganga river basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2016,541:727-741
3 周念清,朱蓉,朱学愚. MODFLOW在宿迁市地下水资源评价中的应用[J].水文地质工程地质,2000(6):9-13Zhou Nianqing,Zhu Rong,Zhu Xueyu. Application of MODFLOW in the evaluation of groundwater resources in Suqian city[J]. Hydrogeology Engineering Geology,2000(6):9-13
4 贾金生,刘昌明.华北平原地下水动态及其对不同开采量响应的计算———以河北省栾城县为例[J].地理学报,2002(2):201-209Jia Jinsheng,Liu Changming. Dynamic calculation of the responses of groundwater different production the north China plain:in Luancheng county of Hebei province[J]. Journal of Geography,2002(2):201-209
5刁维杰,李飞,邱庆泰,等.潍坊北部超采区地下水位预测与恢复[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(7):151-154Diao Weijie,Li Fei,Qiu Qingtai,et al. Prediction and recovery of groundwater level in overexploited areas in northern Weifang[J]. Science of Hydropower and Energy,2017,35(7):151-154
6 付延玲.邯邢水文地质南单元岩溶地下水系统数值预报[J].中国岩溶,2002(4):38-44Fu Yanling. Numerical prediction of karst groundwater system in hydrogeological south unit[J]. China Karst,2002(4):38-44
7 张勇,田胜龙,赵云云.黑龙洞泉域地下水流数值模拟与预测[J].地球科学(中国地质大学学报),2008(5):693-698Zhang Yong,Tian Shenglong,Zhao Yunyun. Numerical simulation and prediction of groundwater flow in the Heilongdong spring basin[J]. Earth Science(Journal of China University of Geosciences),2008(5):693-698
8 赵瑞霞.黑龙洞泉域地下水模拟与优化配置[D].邯郸:河北工程大学,2008Zhao Ruixia. Simulation and optimal allocation of groundwater in Heilongdong spring basin[D]. Handan:Hebei University of Engineering,2008
9 刘德林.郑州市年降水量的ARIMA模型预测[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(6):249-251Liu Delin. ARIMA model prediction of annual precipitation in Zhengzhou[J]. Soil and Water Conservation Research,2011,18(6):249-251
10 李娜,周维博,董起广,等.基于ARIMA模型的灌区地下水动态预报[J].人民长江,2014,45(9):43-47Li Na,Zhou Weibo,Dong Qiguang,et al. Groundwater dynamic prediction based on ARIMA model[J]. Renmin Yangtze River,2014,45(9):43-47
11 解建仓,王玥,雷社平,等.基于ARIMA模型的大坝安全监测数据分析与预测[J].人民黄河,2018,40(10):131-134Xie Jiancang,Wang Yue,Lei Sheping,et al. Analysis and prediction of dam safety monitoring data based on ARIMA model[J].People's Yellow River,2008,40(10):131-134
12 余珍.基于时间序列分析的航道水位预测研究[J].中国水运,2018,18(10):148-150Yu Zhen. Research on channel water level prediction based on time series analysis[J]. China Water Transport,2018,18(10):148-150
13 雷德鑫,易武.基于ARIMA时间序列模型的滑坡位移预测预报———以三峡库区王家坡滑坡为例[J].人民长江,2018,49(21):56-60,83Lei Dexin,Yi Wu. Prediction and prediction of landslide displacement based on ARIMA time series model:a case study of Wangjiapo landslide in Three Gorges reservoir area[J]. People's Yangtze River,2018,49(21):56-60,83
14 陈劲松,万力. MODFLOW中不同方程组求解方法差异分析[J].工程勘察,2002(2):25-27,32Chen Jinsong,Wan Li. Difference analysis of solving methods of different equations in MODFLOW[J]. Engineering Survey,2002(2):25-27,32
15 周念清,傅莉,江思珉,等. MODFLOW在三门峡铝土矿疏干排水模拟中的应用[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(12):1691-1694,1699Zhou Nianqing,Fu Li,Jiang Simin,et al. Application of MODFLOW in drainage simulation of bauxite in Sanmenxia[J]. Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science Edition),2009,37(12):1691-1694,1699
16 吴乐,张有全,宫辉力,等.北京市西山地区地下水数值模拟及预测[J].水文地质工程地质,2016,43(3):29-36Wu Le,Zhang Youquan,Gong huili,et al. Numerical simulation and prediction of groundwater in Xishan area of Beijing[J]. Hydrogeology Engineering Geology,2016,43(3):29-36
17 郭小铭,李博,殷文渊,等. Visual Modflow预测矿井涌水量过程中边界条件问题探讨[J].矿业安全与环保,2013,40(6):104-107Guo Xiaoming,Li Bo,Yin Wenyuan,et al. Discussion on boundary conditions in Visual Modflow prediction of mine water inflow process[J]. Mining Safety and Environmental Protection,2013,40(6):104-107
18 束龙仓,刘佩贵,刘波,等.傍河水源地数学模型的参数灵敏度分析———以辽宁省北票市某傍河水源地为例[J].工程勘察,2006(8):29-31Shu Longcang,Liu Peigui,Liu Bo,et al. Parameter sensitivity analysis of the mathematical model of riverside river source area:a riverside river source area in Beipiao city of Liaoning province[J].Engineering Survey,2006(8):29-31
19 安永凯,卢文喜,宋文博,等. ARIMA-RBFNN组合模型在白城市降水量预测中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(6):25-28An Yongkai,Lu Wenxi,Song Wenbo,et al. Application of arimarbfnn combination model in precipitation prediction of Baicheng city[J]. Science of Hydropower and Energy,2014,32(6):25-28
20 吴旭.邯郸市黑龙洞泉域地下水超采区评价[J].地下水,2014,36(6):90-92Wu Xu. Evaluation of Groundwater overdraft area in Heilongdong spring area of Handan city[J]. Groundwater,2014,36(6):90-92
2 Maheswaran R,Khosa R,Gosain A. K,et al. Regional scale groundwater modelling study for Ganga river basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2016,541:727-741
3 周念清,朱蓉,朱学愚. MODFLOW在宿迁市地下水资源评价中的应用[J].水文地质工程地质,2000(6):9-13Zhou Nianqing,Zhu Rong,Zhu Xueyu. Application of MODFLOW in the evaluation of groundwater resources in Suqian city[J]. Hydrogeology Engineering Geology,2000(6):9-13
4 贾金生,刘昌明.华北平原地下水动态及其对不同开采量响应的计算———以河北省栾城县为例[J].地理学报,2002(2):201-209Jia Jinsheng,Liu Changming. Dynamic calculation of the responses of groundwater different production the north China plain:in Luancheng county of Hebei province[J]. Journal of Geography,2002(2):201-209
5刁维杰,李飞,邱庆泰,等.潍坊北部超采区地下水位预测与恢复[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(7):151-154Diao Weijie,Li Fei,Qiu Qingtai,et al. Prediction and recovery of groundwater level in overexploited areas in northern Weifang[J]. Science of Hydropower and Energy,2017,35(7):151-154
6 付延玲.邯邢水文地质南单元岩溶地下水系统数值预报[J].中国岩溶,2002(4):38-44Fu Yanling. Numerical prediction of karst groundwater system in hydrogeological south unit[J]. China Karst,2002(4):38-44
7 张勇,田胜龙,赵云云.黑龙洞泉域地下水流数值模拟与预测[J].地球科学(中国地质大学学报),2008(5):693-698Zhang Yong,Tian Shenglong,Zhao Yunyun. Numerical simulation and prediction of groundwater flow in the Heilongdong spring basin[J]. Earth Science(Journal of China University of Geosciences),2008(5):693-698
8 赵瑞霞.黑龙洞泉域地下水模拟与优化配置[D].邯郸:河北工程大学,2008Zhao Ruixia. Simulation and optimal allocation of groundwater in Heilongdong spring basin[D]. Handan:Hebei University of Engineering,2008
9 刘德林.郑州市年降水量的ARIMA模型预测[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(6):249-251Liu Delin. ARIMA model prediction of annual precipitation in Zhengzhou[J]. Soil and Water Conservation Research,2011,18(6):249-251
10 李娜,周维博,董起广,等.基于ARIMA模型的灌区地下水动态预报[J].人民长江,2014,45(9):43-47Li Na,Zhou Weibo,Dong Qiguang,et al. Groundwater dynamic prediction based on ARIMA model[J]. Renmin Yangtze River,2014,45(9):43-47
11 解建仓,王玥,雷社平,等.基于ARIMA模型的大坝安全监测数据分析与预测[J].人民黄河,2018,40(10):131-134Xie Jiancang,Wang Yue,Lei Sheping,et al. Analysis and prediction of dam safety monitoring data based on ARIMA model[J].People's Yellow River,2008,40(10):131-134
12 余珍.基于时间序列分析的航道水位预测研究[J].中国水运,2018,18(10):148-150Yu Zhen. Research on channel water level prediction based on time series analysis[J]. China Water Transport,2018,18(10):148-150
13 雷德鑫,易武.基于ARIMA时间序列模型的滑坡位移预测预报———以三峡库区王家坡滑坡为例[J].人民长江,2018,49(21):56-60,83Lei Dexin,Yi Wu. Prediction and prediction of landslide displacement based on ARIMA time series model:a case study of Wangjiapo landslide in Three Gorges reservoir area[J]. People's Yangtze River,2018,49(21):56-60,83
14 陈劲松,万力. MODFLOW中不同方程组求解方法差异分析[J].工程勘察,2002(2):25-27,32Chen Jinsong,Wan Li. Difference analysis of solving methods of different equations in MODFLOW[J]. Engineering Survey,2002(2):25-27,32
15 周念清,傅莉,江思珉,等. MODFLOW在三门峡铝土矿疏干排水模拟中的应用[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(12):1691-1694,1699Zhou Nianqing,Fu Li,Jiang Simin,et al. Application of MODFLOW in drainage simulation of bauxite in Sanmenxia[J]. Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science Edition),2009,37(12):1691-1694,1699
16 吴乐,张有全,宫辉力,等.北京市西山地区地下水数值模拟及预测[J].水文地质工程地质,2016,43(3):29-36Wu Le,Zhang Youquan,Gong huili,et al. Numerical simulation and prediction of groundwater in Xishan area of Beijing[J]. Hydrogeology Engineering Geology,2016,43(3):29-36
17 郭小铭,李博,殷文渊,等. Visual Modflow预测矿井涌水量过程中边界条件问题探讨[J].矿业安全与环保,2013,40(6):104-107Guo Xiaoming,Li Bo,Yin Wenyuan,et al. Discussion on boundary conditions in Visual Modflow prediction of mine water inflow process[J]. Mining Safety and Environmental Protection,2013,40(6):104-107
18 束龙仓,刘佩贵,刘波,等.傍河水源地数学模型的参数灵敏度分析———以辽宁省北票市某傍河水源地为例[J].工程勘察,2006(8):29-31Shu Longcang,Liu Peigui,Liu Bo,et al. Parameter sensitivity analysis of the mathematical model of riverside river source area:a riverside river source area in Beipiao city of Liaoning province[J].Engineering Survey,2006(8):29-31
19 安永凯,卢文喜,宋文博,等. ARIMA-RBFNN组合模型在白城市降水量预测中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(6):25-28An Yongkai,Lu Wenxi,Song Wenbo,et al. Application of arimarbfnn combination model in precipitation prediction of Baicheng city[J]. Science of Hydropower and Energy,2014,32(6):25-28
20 吴旭.邯郸市黑龙洞泉域地下水超采区评价[J].地下水,2014,36(6):90-92Wu Xu. Evaluation of Groundwater overdraft area in Heilongdong spring area of Handan city[J]. Groundwater,2014,36(6):90-92
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