2015年以来藏东南察隅河上游农户对气候变化的感知
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摘要
以藏东南察隅河流域上游高海拔地区博学村为研究区,基于2015、2018年的调查数据,分析了农户对气候变化及其影响的感知和认识状况,为引导农户适应气候变化、制定适宜的适应政策提供科学依据。结果表明:从2015年到2018年,农户均认为气候发生了变化,认为气候变化程度"很明显"和"有些明显"的农户有所增加。认为湿度"变干"的农户从无到有,且超过了50%。认为"冬季变冷"的农户从有到无,间接说明"冬季变暖"。对降雨量的感知由"增加"变为"减少"。对冰雪覆盖面积和河流水量的感知均由不统一态度转变为"减少"。对草场质量的感知向"恶化"发展。对自然灾害的感知整体上"减少"。总之,农户对气候变化的感知愈加强烈,对温度的感知印证了气候变暖的事实,对湿度、降雨量、河流水量、草场质量、自然灾害的感知说明当地正在经历干旱化。此外,农户对气候变化的认识更为深刻,但地方政策性的引导亟待实施。
In order to provide effective policies and measures to adapt to climate change, we selected Boxue village located in upstream basin of Zayu river in Southeast Tibet as study area,and the farmer's investigation data of 2015 and 2018 was used to analyze the impact of the farmer's perception of climate change. The results showed that from 2015 to 2018, all the farmers thought that the local climate has changed. A lot of farmers thought that the humidity was drier. A few farmers thought that the winter was colder, which might prove that the winter was warming.Furthermore, the perception of the precipitation was from increase to decrease, the perceptions of the glaciers, river flow and natural disaster were decrease, and the perception of grassland quality was deteriorating. In a word, the farmer's perception of climate change is stronger, and the perception of temperature sidely prove the climate is warming; the results of different perceptions of humidity, precipitation, river flow, grassland quality and natural disaster showed that the local area is experiencing drought. In addition, farmer's knowledge of climate change is profounder and the local policy guidance is urgently required.
In order to provide effective policies and measures to adapt to climate change, we selected Boxue village located in upstream basin of Zayu river in Southeast Tibet as study area,and the farmer's investigation data of 2015 and 2018 was used to analyze the impact of the farmer's perception of climate change. The results showed that from 2015 to 2018, all the farmers thought that the local climate has changed. A lot of farmers thought that the humidity was drier. A few farmers thought that the winter was colder, which might prove that the winter was warming.Furthermore, the perception of the precipitation was from increase to decrease, the perceptions of the glaciers, river flow and natural disaster were decrease, and the perception of grassland quality was deteriorating. In a word, the farmer's perception of climate change is stronger, and the perception of temperature sidely prove the climate is warming; the results of different perceptions of humidity, precipitation, river flow, grassland quality and natural disaster showed that the local area is experiencing drought. In addition, farmer's knowledge of climate change is profounder and the local policy guidance is urgently required.
引文
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[14]王亚茹,赵雪雁,张钦等.高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化适应策略-以甘南高原为例[J].地理研究,2016,35(07):1273-1287.
[15]周尧治,曲扎,郭英春.雅鲁藏布江流域中游居民对气候变化的感知及适应[J].西藏研究,2014(3):90-96.
[16]侯磊,周尧治,任毅华.藏东南察隅河流域不同海拔居民对气候变化的感知[J].生态与农村环境学报,2017,33(06):491-498.
[17]王世金,李曼,谭春萍.山区居民对气候变化及其影响与适应的感知分析-以玉龙雪山地区为例[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(03):216-222.
[18]孙东霞,钟大赉,季建清等.河砂岩屑磷灰石裂变径迹模拟流域热史-以藏东南察隅河为例[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(02):613-627.
[19]李林,陈晓光,王振宇等.青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(03):181-186.
[20]陈宝雄,王景升,冉琮千等.1954-2009年藏东南林区的气候变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(01):43-47.
[21]杨春艳,沈渭寿,林乃峰.西藏高原气候变化及其差异性[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(02):290-298.
[22]张东启,效存德,刘伟刚.喜马拉雅山区1951-2010年气候变化事实分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(02):110-118.
[23]李缔华.察隅县近32年气候变化情况的简要分析[J].西藏科技,2014(1):44-46.
[24]GIORGI F,HURRELL J W,MARINUCCI M R,et al.Elevation Dependency of the Surface Climate Change Signal:a Model Study[J].Journal of Climate,1997,10(2):288-296.
[25]BENISTON M,DIAZ H F.Climatic Change in Mountain Regions:A Review of Possible Impacts[J].Climatic Change,2003,59(1-2):5-31.
[26]LIU X,CHENG Z,YAN L,et al.Elevation Dependency of Recent and Future Minimum Surface Air Temperature Trends in the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings[J].Global&Planetary Change,2009,68(3):164-174.
[27]段安民,肖志祥,吴国雄.1979-2014年全球变暖背景下青藏高原气候变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(05):374-381.
[28]杨威,姚檀栋,徐柏青等.青藏高原东南部岗日嘎布地区冰川严重损耗与退缩[J].科学通报,2008,53(17):2091-2095.
[29]胡豪然,梁玲.近50年青藏高原东部冬季积雪的时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2013,68(11):1493-1503.
[30]宋燕,张菁,李智才等.青藏高原冬季积雪年代际变化及对中国夏季降水的影响[J].高原气象,2011,30(04):843-851.
[31]KANG S,XU Y,YOU Q,et al.Review of Climate and Cryospheric Change in the Tibetan Plateau[J].Environmental Research Letters,2010,5(1):015101.
[32]王娟丽.西藏自然灾害时空分布规律及特征分析[J].西藏发展论坛,2018(02):44-49.
[2]刘燕华,钱凤魁,王文涛等.应对气候变化的适应技术框架研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(05):1-6.
[3]陶蕾.国际气候适应制度进程及其展望[J].南京大学学报(哲学.人文科学.社会科学版),2014,51(02):52-60+158.
[4]侯向阳,丁勇,吴新宇.北方草原区气候变化影响与适应[M].北京:科学出版社,2015:1.
[5]曾静静,曲建升.欧盟气候变化适应政策行动及其启示[J].世界地理研究,2013,22(04):117-126.
[6]侯向阳,韩颖.内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(10):1753-1764.
[7]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇等.天山北坡家庭牧场复合系统对极端气候的响应过程[J].生态学报,2013,33(17):5353-5362.
[8]谭灵芝,马长发.中国干旱区农户气候变化感知及适应性行为研究[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(01):220-225.
[9]汤懋苍,许曼春.祁连山区的气候变化[J].高原气象,1984,3(4):21-33.
[10]YAO T D,XIE Z C,WU X L,et al.Climatic Change since Little Ice Age Recorded by the Dunde Ice Cap[J].Science China Chemistry,1991,34(6):760-767.
[11]潘保田,李吉均.青藏高原:全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器─Ⅲ.青藏高原隆起对气候变化的影响[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,1996,32(1):108-115.
[12]PIAO S,TAN K,NAN H,et al.Impacts of Climate and CO2Changes on the Vegetation Growth and Carbon Balance of Qinghai-Tibetan Grasslands Over the Past Five Decades[J].Global&Planetary Change,2012,98-99(6):73-80.
[13]吴祥定,林振耀.历史时期青藏高原气候变化特征的初步分析[J].气象学报,1981,39(1):90-97.
[14]王亚茹,赵雪雁,张钦等.高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化适应策略-以甘南高原为例[J].地理研究,2016,35(07):1273-1287.
[15]周尧治,曲扎,郭英春.雅鲁藏布江流域中游居民对气候变化的感知及适应[J].西藏研究,2014(3):90-96.
[16]侯磊,周尧治,任毅华.藏东南察隅河流域不同海拔居民对气候变化的感知[J].生态与农村环境学报,2017,33(06):491-498.
[17]王世金,李曼,谭春萍.山区居民对气候变化及其影响与适应的感知分析-以玉龙雪山地区为例[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(03):216-222.
[18]孙东霞,钟大赉,季建清等.河砂岩屑磷灰石裂变径迹模拟流域热史-以藏东南察隅河为例[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(02):613-627.
[19]李林,陈晓光,王振宇等.青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(03):181-186.
[20]陈宝雄,王景升,冉琮千等.1954-2009年藏东南林区的气候变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(01):43-47.
[21]杨春艳,沈渭寿,林乃峰.西藏高原气候变化及其差异性[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(02):290-298.
[22]张东启,效存德,刘伟刚.喜马拉雅山区1951-2010年气候变化事实分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(02):110-118.
[23]李缔华.察隅县近32年气候变化情况的简要分析[J].西藏科技,2014(1):44-46.
[24]GIORGI F,HURRELL J W,MARINUCCI M R,et al.Elevation Dependency of the Surface Climate Change Signal:a Model Study[J].Journal of Climate,1997,10(2):288-296.
[25]BENISTON M,DIAZ H F.Climatic Change in Mountain Regions:A Review of Possible Impacts[J].Climatic Change,2003,59(1-2):5-31.
[26]LIU X,CHENG Z,YAN L,et al.Elevation Dependency of Recent and Future Minimum Surface Air Temperature Trends in the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings[J].Global&Planetary Change,2009,68(3):164-174.
[27]段安民,肖志祥,吴国雄.1979-2014年全球变暖背景下青藏高原气候变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(05):374-381.
[28]杨威,姚檀栋,徐柏青等.青藏高原东南部岗日嘎布地区冰川严重损耗与退缩[J].科学通报,2008,53(17):2091-2095.
[29]胡豪然,梁玲.近50年青藏高原东部冬季积雪的时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2013,68(11):1493-1503.
[30]宋燕,张菁,李智才等.青藏高原冬季积雪年代际变化及对中国夏季降水的影响[J].高原气象,2011,30(04):843-851.
[31]KANG S,XU Y,YOU Q,et al.Review of Climate and Cryospheric Change in the Tibetan Plateau[J].Environmental Research Letters,2010,5(1):015101.
[32]王娟丽.西藏自然灾害时空分布规律及特征分析[J].西藏发展论坛,2018(02):44-49.
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