浙江秋季连阴雨气候统计特征及其异常环流背景
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摘要
利用1971—2016年浙江常规气象站观测资料和多种再分析资料,分析了浙江省秋季连阴雨的气候特征及其异常环流背景。结果表明:(1)浙江每年每站平均出现1.8次秋季连阴雨天气,过程平均可持续5.5 d,平均雨量77 mm;秋季3个月中9月出现连阴雨的频次最高;大多年份会发生1～2次持续5～7 d的连阴雨,78%过程累计降水量在100 mm以下;发生时多为全省一致变化型,多发区集中在杭州—绍兴一带。(2)连阴雨过程次数、累计持续天数及累计降水量有一致变化性,均反映出浙江秋季连阴雨有明显的年际变化特征,有4个强年和7个弱年。(3)浙江秋季连阴雨强(弱)年对应南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压"相向(背)而行"。强(弱)年时,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏西(东),南亚高压异常偏东(西),华东地区上空垂直上升运动强(盛行下沉气流),低层异常偏南(北)风提供了充足的水汽(阻碍了暖湿空气北上),有(不)利于浙江连阴雨的发生。(4)连阴雨强弱年大气环流异常与热带海表温度强迫有关。强(弱)年时,赤道太平洋海温呈拉尼娜状态(距平不明显),使东印度洋—南海—海洋性大陆上空对流活跃(偏弱),潜热加热(不足以)激发低层Matsuno-Gill型响应,(不能)在亚洲大陆激发气旋性环流异常,而赤道中东太平洋强(弱)下沉气流则(不能)在西北太平洋激发反气旋性环流异常,此低层气旋—反气旋异常环流配置(弱环流异常)使华东地区有低层偏南(北)风异常,水汽增多(减少),有(不)利于浙江连阴雨的发生。
Based on the conventional observational data and reanalysis data of Zhejiang Meteorological Station from 1971 to 2016, the statistical characteristics of persistent rainfall in autumn in Zhejiang Province were analyzed. The results are shown as follows.(1) The average rainfall frequency in Zhejiang is 1.8 times per year, with each time lasting 5.5 days, and the average rainfall is 77 mm. In the three month of autumn, it is the most possible to see the continuous rainy weather in September. There is 1—2 times continuous rainy weather lasting 5—7 days in most years, and 78% of such weather has the cumulative precipitation below 100 mm. These characteristics are universal for the whole province, and the prone area is located in Hangzhou-Shaoxing region.(2) There are consistent characteristics in the frequency, accumulative lasting days and accumulative rainfall, which all characterize obvious interannual variation. There are 4 strong years and 7 weak years.(3) The strong(weak) year occurs when the South Asian high and the western Pacific subtropical high meet each other halfway(go back on each other). In strong(weak) years, the western Pacific subtropical high locates in the west(east) anomalously, and the South Asian high locates in the east(west) anomalously; the uplift(sinking) airflow prevails over the East China region, and the low-level anomalous south(north) wind brings(hinders) the warm and wet air, which are(not) conducive to the occurrence of persistent rainy weather.(4) The atmospheric circulation anomaly in strong and weak years is related to the tropical sea surface temperature forcing. In strong(weak) years, the equatorial Pacific sea temperature is in the La Niňa state(with unapparent anomaly), which makes the convection over the eastern Indian Ocean-South China Sea-Oceanic Continent more active(weaker). The latent heating stimulates(is not strong enough to stimulate) the low-level Matsuno-Gill response, and the cyclone circulation anomaly on the Asian continent is(cannot be) excited, so that the anticyclone circulation anomaly on Northwest Pacific region is(cannot be) excited by the strong(weak) sinking airflow on equatorial central eastern Pacific. The low-level cyclone-anticyclone circulation anomaly(weak circulation anomaly) makes the East China region dominated by the anomalous south(north) wind, and the increased(decreased) water vapor is(not) conducive to the occurrence of persistent rain in Zhejiang Province.
Based on the conventional observational data and reanalysis data of Zhejiang Meteorological Station from 1971 to 2016, the statistical characteristics of persistent rainfall in autumn in Zhejiang Province were analyzed. The results are shown as follows.(1) The average rainfall frequency in Zhejiang is 1.8 times per year, with each time lasting 5.5 days, and the average rainfall is 77 mm. In the three month of autumn, it is the most possible to see the continuous rainy weather in September. There is 1—2 times continuous rainy weather lasting 5—7 days in most years, and 78% of such weather has the cumulative precipitation below 100 mm. These characteristics are universal for the whole province, and the prone area is located in Hangzhou-Shaoxing region.(2) There are consistent characteristics in the frequency, accumulative lasting days and accumulative rainfall, which all characterize obvious interannual variation. There are 4 strong years and 7 weak years.(3) The strong(weak) year occurs when the South Asian high and the western Pacific subtropical high meet each other halfway(go back on each other). In strong(weak) years, the western Pacific subtropical high locates in the west(east) anomalously, and the South Asian high locates in the east(west) anomalously; the uplift(sinking) airflow prevails over the East China region, and the low-level anomalous south(north) wind brings(hinders) the warm and wet air, which are(not) conducive to the occurrence of persistent rainy weather.(4) The atmospheric circulation anomaly in strong and weak years is related to the tropical sea surface temperature forcing. In strong(weak) years, the equatorial Pacific sea temperature is in the La Niňa state(with unapparent anomaly), which makes the convection over the eastern Indian Ocean-South China Sea-Oceanic Continent more active(weaker). The latent heating stimulates(is not strong enough to stimulate) the low-level Matsuno-Gill response, and the cyclone circulation anomaly on the Asian continent is(cannot be) excited, so that the anticyclone circulation anomaly on Northwest Pacific region is(cannot be) excited by the strong(weak) sinking airflow on equatorial central eastern Pacific. The low-level cyclone-anticyclone circulation anomaly(weak circulation anomaly) makes the East China region dominated by the anomalous south(north) wind, and the increased(decreased) water vapor is(not) conducive to the occurrence of persistent rain in Zhejiang Province.
引文
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[3] 孙照渤,黄艳艳,倪东鸿.我国秋季连阴雨的气候特征及大气环流特征.大气科学学报,2016,39(4):480-489.SUN Zhaobo,HUANG Yanyan,NI Donghong.Climate and circulation characteristics of continuous autumn rain in China.Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2016,39(4):480-489.
[4] QIN Minhua,LI Dongliang,DAI Aiguo,et al.The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on North Central China precipitation during boreal autumn.Int.J.Climatol.,2018,38(S1):e821-e831.
[5] 张艳红,钱永兰,程路.2015年秋季气候对农业生产的影响.中国农业气象,2015,36(6):769-771.ZHANG Yanhong,QIAN Yonglan,CHENG Lu.Impacts of climate on agricultural production in autumn of 2015.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology (in Chinese),2015,36(6):769-771.
[6] 彭月,蒋元华,兰明才,等.秋季连阴雨天气对湖南农业生产的影响及防灾减灾措施.湖南农业科学,2016(5):51-53,57.PENG Yue,JIANG Yuanhua,LAN Mingcai,et al.Autumn continuous rainweather analysis and the impact on agricultural production in Hunan Province and disaster prevention and mitigation measures.Hunan Agricultural Sciences (in Chinese),2016(5):51-53,57.
[7] 谢剑明,刘礼领,殷坤龙,等.浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究.地质科技情报,2003,22(4):101-105.XIE Jianming,LIU Liling,YIN Kunlong,et al.Study on the threshold valves of rainfall of landslide hazards for early-warning and prediction in Zhejiang Province.Geological Science and Technology Information (in Chinese),2003,22(4):101-105.
[8] 杜惠良,钮学新,殷坤龙,等.浙江省滑坡、泥石流气象条件分析及其预报研究.热带气象学报,2005,21(6):642-650.DU Huiliang,NIU Xuexin,YIN Kunlong,et al.Meteorological condition analysis and forecast research of landslides and debris flows in Zhejiang Province.Journal of Tropical Meteorology (in Chinese),2005,21(6):642-650.
[9] 白虎志,董文杰.华西秋雨的气候特征及成因分析.高原气象,2004,23(6):884-889.BAI Huzhi,DONG Wenjie.Climate features and formation causes of autumn rain over Southwest China.Plateau Meteorology (in Chinese),2004,23(6):884-889.
[10] 江益,范广洲,周定文,等.四川秋季连阴雨的变化特征和时空分布.气象科学,2013,33(3):316-324.JIANG Yi,FAN Guangzhou,ZHOU Dingwen,et al.Variation characteristics and space-time distribution of continuous rainfall in autumn of Sichuan.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences (in Chinese),2013,33(3):316-324.
[11] 罗霄,李栋梁,王慧.华西秋雨演变的新特征及其对大气环流的响应.高原气象,2013,32(4):1019-1031.LUO Xiao,LI Dongliang,WANG Hui.New evolution features of autumn rainfall in West China and its responses to atmospheric circulation.Plateau Meteorology (in Chinese),2013,32(4):1019-1031.
[12] 蒋竹将,马振峰,刘佳,等.一种改进的华西秋雨指数及其气候特征.大气科学,2014,38(1):32-44.JIANG Zhujiang,MA Zhenfeng,LIU Jia,et al.Improved index and climatological characteristics of the autumn rain in western China.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2014,38(1):32-44.
[13] 王春学,马振峰,王佳津,等.华西秋雨准4年周期特征及其与赤道太平洋海表温度的关系.大气科学,2015,39(3):643-652.WANG Chunxue,MA Zhenfeng,WANG Jiajin,et al.The characteristics of Huaxi autumn rain and its relationship with sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2015,39(3):643-652.
[14] 赵佳玉,马振峰,范广洲.热带大气季节内振荡对华西秋雨的影响.高原气象,2016,35(6):1487-1497.ZHAO Jiayu,MA Zhenfeng,FAN Guangzhou.Impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation on autumn rainfall in West China.Plateau Meteorology (in Chinese),2016,35(6):1487-1497.
[15] 刘扬,刘屹岷.我国西南地区秋季降水年际变化的空间差异及其成因.大气科学,2016,40(6):1215-1226.LIU Yang,LIU Yimin.Spatial pattern and causes of interannual variability of autumn rainfall in Southwest China.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2016,40(6):1215-1226.
[16] 贾子冰,武亮,王同美,等.华南秋季降水异常年的台风活动差异及其与海温的关系.海洋学报,2015,37(1):53-62.JIA Zibing,WU Liang,WANG Tongmei,et al.Relationship between autumn rainfall anomalies in South China and typhoons activity,and the anomalous sea surface temperature characteristics.Haiyang Xuebao (in Chinese),2015,37(1):53-62.
[17] 王荣,邹旭恺.长江中下游地区连阴雨变化特征分析.长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(9):1483-1490.WANG Rong,ZOU Xukai.An analysis on the change characteristics of consecutive rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin (in Chinese),2015,24(9):1483-1490.
[18] 陈婕.青藏高原加热场与长江下游秋季降水的关系.气象研究与应用,2013,34(2):1-7,105.CHEN Jie.Relationship of surface heating field in the Tibetan Plateau and autumn precipitation in the lower reaches of Yangtze River.Journal of Meteorological Research and Application (in Chinese),2013,34(2):1-7,105.
[19] ZHU Zhiwei,HE Jinhai,QI Li.Seasonal transition of East Asian subtropical Monsoon and its possible mechanism.J.Trop.Meteor.,2012,18(3):305-313.
[20] Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull Amer.Meteor.Soc.,1996,77(3):437-472.
[21] CHEN Mingyue,XIE Pingping,Janowiak J E,et al.Global land precipitation:A 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations.J.Hydrometeorol.,2002,3(3):249-266.
[22] Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century.J.Geophys.Res.,2003,108(D14):1063-1082.
[23] Lorenz E N.Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction.Cambridge:Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Department of Meteorology,1956:49pp.
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